John D. Jakeman

John D. Jakeman, Michael S. Eldred, Khachik Sargsyan

In this paper we present a basis selection method that can be used with $\ell_1$-minimization to adaptively determine the large coefficients of polynomial chaos expansions (PCE). The adaptive construction produces anisotropic basis sets that have more terms in important dimensions and limits the number of unimportant terms that increase mutual coherence and thus degrade the performance of $\ell_1$-minimization. The important features and the accuracy of basis selection are demonstrated with a number of numerical examples. Specifically, we show that for a given computational budget, basis selection produces a more accurate PCE than would be obtained if the basis is fixed a priori. We also demonstrate that basis selection can be applied with non-uniform random variables and can leverage gradient information.

Akil Narayan, John D. Jakeman, Tao Zhou

We propose, theoretically investigate, and numerically validate an algorithm for the Monte Carlo solution of least-squares polynomial approximation problems in a collocation frame- work. Our method is motivated by generalized Polynomial Chaos approximation in uncertainty quantification where a polynomial approximation is formed from a combination of orthogonal polynomials. A standard Monte Carlo approach would draw samples according to the density of orthogonality. Our proposed algorithm samples with respect to the equilibrium measure of the parametric domain, and subsequently solves a weighted least-squares problem, with weights given by evaluations of the Christoffel function. We present theoretical analysis to motivate the algorithm, and numerical results that show our method is superior to standard Monte Carlo methods in many situations of interest.

John D. Jakeman, Akil Narayan, Tao Zhou

In this paper we propose an algorithm for recovering sparse orthogonal polynomials using stochastic collocation. Our approach is motivated by the desire to use generalized polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) to quantify uncertainty in models subject to uncertain input parameters. The standard sampling approach for recovering sparse polynomials is to use Monte Carlo (MC) sampling of the density of orthogonality. However MC methods result in poor function recovery when the polynomial degree is high. Here we propose a general algorithm that can be applied to any admissible weight function on a bounded domain and a wide class of exponential weight functions defined on unbounded domains. Our proposed algorithm samples with respect to the weighted equilibrium measure of the parametric domain, and subsequently solves a preconditioned $\ell^1$-minimization problem, where the weights of the diagonal preconditioning matrix are given by evaluations of the Christoffel function. We present theoretical analysis to motivate the algorithm, and numerical results that show our method is superior to standard Monte Carlo methods in many situations of interest. Numerical examples are also provided that demonstrate that our proposed Christoffel Sparse Approximation algorithm leads to comparable or improved accuracy even when compared with Legendre and Hermite specific algorithms.

Ben Adcock, Anyi Bao, John D. Jakeman et al.

The recovery of approximately sparse or compressible coefficients in a Polynomial Chaos Expansion is a common goal in modern parametric uncertainty quantification (UQ). However, relatively little effort in UQ has been directed toward theoretical and computational strategies for addressing the sparse corruptions problem, where a small number of measurements are highly corrupted. Such a situation has become pertinent today since modern computational frameworks are sufficiently complex with many interdependent components that may introduce hardware and software failures, some of which can be difficult to detect and result in a highly polluted simulation result. In this paper we present a novel compressive sampling-based theoretical analysis for a regularized $\ell^1$ minimization algorithm that aims to recover sparse expansion coefficients in the presence of measurement corruptions. Our recovery results are uniform, and prescribe algorithmic regularization parameters in terms of a user-defined a priori estimate on the ratio of measurements that are believed to be corrupted. We also propose an iteratively reweighted optimization algorithm that automatically refines the value of the regularization parameter, and empirically produces superior results. Our numerical results test our framework on several medium-to-high dimensional examples of solutions to parameterized differential equations, and demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

John D. Jakeman, Akil Narayan

The search for multivariate quadrature rules of minimal size with a specified polynomial accuracy has been the topic of many years of research. Finding such a rule allows accurate integration of moments, which play a central role in many aspects of scientific computing with complex models. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, we provide novel mathematical analysis of the polynomial quadrature problem that provides a lower bound for the minimal possible number of nodes in a polynomial rule with specified accuracy. We give concrete but simplistic multivariate examples where a minimal quadrature rule can be designed that achieves this lower bound, along with situations that showcase when it is not possible to achieve this lower bound. Our second main contribution comes in the formulation of an algorithm that is able to efficiently generate multivariate quadrature rules with positive weights on non-tensorial domains. Our tests show success of this procedure in up to 20 dimensions. We test our method on applications to dimension reduction and chemical kinetics problems, including comparisons against popular alternatives such as sparse grids, Monte Carlo and quasi Monte Carlo sequences, and Stroud rules. The quadrature rules computed in this paper outperform these alternatives in almost all scenarios.

Zachary Morrow, Joseph Crockett, John D. Jakeman et al.

Wildfires are a major producer of fine particulate matter, impacting human health and the electrical grid. Accurately forecasting smoke impacts over long time scales incorporates fuel treatment strategies, natural fuel succession, and stochastic events like lightning strikes. However, predicting smoke for each fuel distribution with a forward simulation of a coupled fire-atmosphere model is computationally infeasible. Moreover, relatively simple fire models are tractable to run in many long-time scenarios but do not capture smoke transport. We use data-driven multilinear operators to predict a smoke concentration field from knowledge of the time since ignition for two quantities of interest: aerosol optical depth and smoke detection. Our method first computes the principal components of time-since-ignition and smoke concentration fields and then learns a map from powers of the input coefficients to the output coefficients. We apply our learned operator to smoke prediction in the Upper Rio Grande Watershed. After collecting training data, learning the approximation weights on a CPU takes less than 30 seconds, and each forward call takes less than 1 ms. On a proxy for aerosol optical depth, we obtain equal accuracy to Monte Carlo sampling with fewer than half as many coupled model calls. For smoke detection, we obtain an intersection-over-union (IoU) of 65% and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.95 on holdout data. Our method is significantly more accurate than the most similar published smoke classifier, which obtains an IoU and AUC of 0.15 and 0.61, respectively, on a 2015 bushfire in Australia.

Zachary Morrow, Michael Penwarden, Brian Chen et al.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) and Kolmogorov-Arnold networks (KANs) are popular methods for function approximation due to their flexibility and expressivity. However, they typically require a large number of trainable parameters to produce a suitable approximation. Beyond making the resulting network less transparent, overparameterization creates a large optimization space, likely producing local minima in training that have quite different generalization errors. In this case, network initialization can have an outsize impact on the model's out-of-sample accuracy. For these reasons, we propose shallow universal polynomial networks (SUPNs). These networks replace all but the last hidden layer with a single layer of polynomials with learnable coefficients, leveraging the strengths of DNNs and polynomials to achieve sufficient expressivity with far fewer parameters. We prove that SUPNs converge at the same rate as the best polynomial approximation of the same degree, and we derive explicit formulas for quasi-optimal SUPN parameters. We complement theory with an extensive suite of numerical experiments involving SUPNs, DNNs, KANs, and polynomial projection in one, two, and ten dimensions, consisting of over 13,000 trained models. On the target functions we numerically studied, for a given number of trainable parameters, the approximation error and variability are often lower for SUPNs than for DNNs and KANs by an order of magnitude. In our examples, SUPNs even outperform polynomial projection on non-smooth functions.

John D. Jakeman, Lorena A. Barba, Joaquim R. R. A. Martins et al.

Scientific machine learning (SciML) models are transforming many scientific disciplines. However, the development of good modeling practices to increase the trustworthiness of SciML has lagged behind its application, limiting its potential impact. The goal of this paper is to start a discussion on establishing consensus-based good practices for predictive SciML. We identify key challenges in applying existing computational science and engineering guidelines, such as verification and validation protocols, and provide recommendations to address these challenges. Our discussion focuses on predictive SciML, which uses machine learning models to learn, improve, and accelerate numerical simulations of physical systems. While centered on predictive applications, our 16 recommendations aim to help researchers conduct and document their modeling processes rigorously across all SciML domains.

Matthew Lowery, John Turnage, Zachary Morrow et al.

This paper introduces the Kernel Neural Operator (KNO), a provably convergent operator-learning architecture that utilizes compositions of deep kernel-based integral operators for function-space approximation of operators (maps from functions to functions). The KNO decouples the choice of kernel from the numerical integration scheme (quadrature), thereby naturally allowing for operator learning with explicitly-chosen trainable kernels on irregular geometries. On irregular domains, this allows the KNO to utilize domain-specific quadrature rules. To help ameliorate the curse of dimensionality, we also leverage an efficient dimension-wise factorization algorithm on regular domains. More importantly, the ability to explicitly specify kernels also allows the use of highly expressive, non-stationary, neural anisotropic kernels whose parameters are computed by training neural networks. Numerical results demonstrate that on existing benchmarks the training and test accuracy of KNOs is comparable to or higher than popular operator learning techniques while typically using an order of magnitude fewer trainable parameters, with the more expressive kernels proving important to attaining high accuracy. KNOs thus facilitate low-memory, geometrically-flexible, deep operator learning, while retaining the implementation simplicity and transparency of traditional kernel methods from both scientific computing and machine learning.

Alex Gorodetsky, John D. Jakeman, Gianluca Geraci

We present an approach for constructing a surrogate from ensembles of information sources of varying cost and accuracy. The multifidelity surrogate encodes connections between information sources as a directed acyclic graph, and is trained via gradient-based minimization of a nonlinear least squares objective. While the vast majority of state-of-the-art assumes hierarchical connections between information sources, our approach works with flexibly structured information sources that may not admit a strict hierarchy. The formulation has two advantages: (1) increased data efficiency due to parsimonious multifidelity networks that can be tailored to the application; and (2) no constraints on the training data -- we can combine noisy, non-nested evaluations of the information sources. Numerical examples ranging from synthetic to physics-based computational mechanics simulations indicate the error in our approach can be orders-of-magnitude smaller, particularly in the low-data regime, than single-fidelity and hierarchical multifidelity approaches.

Alex A. Gorodetsky, John D. Jakeman

We consider the task of low-multilinear-rank functional regression, i.e., learning a low-rank parametric representation of functions from scattered real-valued data. Our first contribution is the development and analysis of an efficient gradient computation that enables gradient-based optimization procedures, including stochastic gradient descent and quasi-Newton methods, for learning the parameters of a functional tensor-train (FT). The functional tensor-train uses the tensor-train (TT) representation of low-rank arrays as an ansatz for a class of low-multilinear-rank functions. The FT is represented by a set of matrix-valued functions that contain a set of univariate functions, and the regression task is to learn the parameters of these univariate functions. Our second contribution demonstrates that using nonlinearly parameterized univariate functions, e.g., symmetric kernels with moving centers, within each core can outperform the standard approach of using a linear expansion of basis functions. Our final contributions are new rank adaptation and group-sparsity regularization procedures to minimize overfitting. We use several benchmark problems to demonstrate at least an order of magnitude lower accuracy with gradient-based optimization methods than standard alternating least squares procedures in the low-sample number regime. We also demonstrate an order of magnitude reduction in accuracy on a test problem resulting from using nonlinear parameterizations over linear parameterizations. Finally we compare regression performance with 22 other nonparametric and parametric regression methods on 10 real-world data sets. We achieve top-five accuracy for seven of the data sets and best accuracy for two of the data sets. These rankings are the best amongst parametric models and competetive with the best non-parametric methods.

Scott N. Walsh, Tim M. Wildey, John D. Jakeman

We consider the utilization of a computational model to guide the optimal acquisition of experimental data to inform the stochastic description of model input parameters. Our formulation is based on the recently developed consistent Bayesian approach for solving stochastic inverse problems which seeks a posterior probability density that is consistent with the model and the data in the sense that the push-forward of the posterior (through the computational model) matches the observed density on the observations almost everywhere. Given a set a potential observations, our optimal experimental design (OED) seeks the observation, or set of observations, that maximizes the expected information gain from the prior probability density on the model parameters. We discuss the characterization of the space of observed densities and a computationally efficient approach for rescaling observed densities to satisfy the fundamental assumptions of the consistent Bayesian approach. Numerical results are presented to compare our approach with existing OED methodologies using the classical/statistical Bayesian approach and to demonstrate our OED on a set of representative PDE-based models.