Olivia Graham

Shreya Agrawal, Mohammed Alewi Hassen, Emmanuel Asiedu Brempong et al.

Precipitation nowcasting, which predicts rainfall up to a few hours ahead, is a critical tool for vulnerable communities in the Global South frequently exposed to intense, rapidly developing storms. Timely forecasts provide a crucial window to protect lives and livelihoods. Traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) methods suffer from high latency, low spatial and temporal resolution, and significant gaps in accuracy across the world. Recent machine learning-based nowcasting methods, common in the Global North, cannot be extended to the Global South due to extremely sparse radar coverage. We present Global MetNet, an operational global machine learning nowcasting model. It leverages the Global Precipitation Mission's CORRA dataset, geostationary satellite data, and global NWP data to predict precipitation for the next 12 hours. The model operates at a high resolution of approximately 0.05° (~5km) spatially and 15 minutes temporally. Global MetNet significantly outperforms industry-standard hourly forecasts and achieves significantly higher skill, making forecasts useful over a much larger area of the world than previously available. Our model demonstrates better skill in data-sparse regions than even the best high-resolution NWP models achieve in the US. Validated using ground radar and satellite data, it shows significant improvements across key metrics like the critical success index and fractions skill score for all precipitation rates and lead times. Crucially, our model generates forecasts in under a minute, making it readily deployable for real-time applications. It is already deployed for millions of users on Google Search. This work represents a key step in reducing global disparities in forecast quality and integrating sparse, high-resolution satellite observations into weather forecasting.

Brendan Hogan, Anmol Kabra, Felipe Siqueira Pacheco et al.

Trust and interpretability are crucial for the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in scientific research, but current models often operate as black boxes offering limited transparency and justifications for their outputs. We introduce AiSciVision, a framework that specializes Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) into interactive research partners and classification models for image classification tasks in niche scientific domains. Our framework uses two key components: (1) Visual Retrieval-Augmented Generation (VisRAG) and (2) domain-specific tools utilized in an agentic workflow. To classify a target image, AiSciVision first retrieves the most similar positive and negative labeled images as context for the LMM. Then the LMM agent actively selects and applies tools to manipulate and inspect the target image over multiple rounds, refining its analysis before making a final prediction. These VisRAG and tooling components are designed to mirror the processes of domain experts, as humans often compare new data to similar examples and use specialized tools to manipulate and inspect images before arriving at a conclusion. Each inference produces both a prediction and a natural language transcript detailing the reasoning and tool usage that led to the prediction. We evaluate AiSciVision on three real-world scientific image classification datasets: detecting the presence of aquaculture ponds, diseased eelgrass, and solar panels. Across these datasets, our method outperforms fully supervised models in low and full-labeled data settings. AiSciVision is actively deployed in real-world use, specifically for aquaculture research, through a dedicated web application that displays and allows the expert users to converse with the transcripts. This work represents a crucial step toward AI systems that are both interpretable and effective, advancing their use in scientific research and scientific discovery.