Glaucio H. S. Carvalho

Sajal Saha, Saikat Das, Glaucio H. S. Carvalho

In this paper, we present a novel hybrid deep learning model, named ConvLSTMTransNet, designed for time series prediction, with a specific application to internet traffic telemetry. This model integrates the strengths of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, and Transformer encoders to capture complex spatial-temporal relationships inherent in time series data. The ConvLSTMTransNet model was evaluated against three baseline models: RNN, LSTM, and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), using real internet traffic data sampled from high-speed ports on a provider edge router. Performance metrics such as Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Weighted Absolute Percentage Error (WAPE) were used to assess each model's accuracy. Our findings demonstrate that ConvLSTMTransNet significantly outperforms the baseline models by approximately 10% in terms of prediction accuracy. ConvLSTMTransNet surpasses traditional models due to its innovative architectural features, which enhance its ability to capture temporal dependencies and extract spatial features from internet traffic data. Overall, these findings underscore the importance of employing advanced architectures tailored to the complexities of internet traffic data for achieving more precise predictions.

Audri Banik, Glaucio Haroldo Silva de Carvalho, Renata Dividino

In traffic prediction, the goal is to estimate traffic speed or flow in specific regions or road segments using historical data collected by devices deployed in each area. Each region or road segment can be viewed as an individual client that measures local traffic flow, making Federated Learning (FL) a suitable approach for collaboratively training models without sharing raw data. In centralized FL, a central server collects and aggregates model updates from multiple clients to build a shared model while preserving each client's data privacy. Standard FL methods, such as Federated Averaging (FedAvg), assume that clients are independent, which can limit performance in traffic prediction tasks where spatial relationships between clients are important. Federated Graph Learning methods can capture these dependencies during server-side aggregation, but they often introduce significant computational overhead. In this paper, we propose a lightweight graph-aware FL approach that blends the simplicity of FedAvg with key ideas from graph learning. Rather than training full models, our method applies basic neighbourhood aggregation principles to guide parameter updates, weighting client models based on graph connectivity. This approach captures spatial relationships effectively while remaining computationally efficient. We evaluate our method on two benchmark traffic datasets, METR-LA and PEMS-BAY, and show that it achieves competitive performance compared to standard baselines and recent graph-based federated learning techniques.