Daniel J. Alford-Lago

Daniel J. Alford-Lago, Christopher W. Curtis, Alexander T. Ihler et al.

We present a novel method for forecasting key ionospheric parameters using transformer-based neural networks. The model provides accurate forecasts and uncertainty quantification of the F2-layer peak plasma frequency (foF2), the F2-layer peak density height (hmF2), and total electron content (TEC) for a given geographic location. It supports a number of exogenous variables, including F10.7cm solar flux and disturbance storm time (Dst). We demonstrate how transformers can be trained in a data assimilation-like fashion that use these exogenous variables along with naïve predictions from climatology to generate 24-hour forecasts with non-parametric uncertainty bounds. We call this method the Local Ionospheric Forecast Transformer (LIFT). We demonstrate that the trained model can generalize to new geographic locations and time periods not seen during training, and we compare its performance to that of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI).

Daniel J. Alford-Lago, Christopher W. Curtis, Alexander T. Ihler et al.

Koopman operator theory shows how nonlinear dynamical systems can be represented as an infinite-dimensional, linear operator acting on a Hilbert space of observables of the system. However, determining the relevant modes and eigenvalues of this infinite-dimensional operator can be difficult. The extended dynamic mode decomposition (EDMD) is one such method for generating approximations to Koopman spectra and modes, but the EDMD method faces its own set of challenges due to the need of user defined observables. To address this issue, we explore the use of autoencoder networks to simultaneously find optimal families of observables which also generate both accurate embeddings of the flow into a space of observables and submersions of the observables back into flow coordinates. This network results in a global transformation of the flow and affords future state prediction via the EDMD and the decoder network. We call this method the deep learning dynamic mode decomposition (DLDMD). The method is tested on canonical nonlinear data sets and is shown to produce results that outperform a standard DMD approach and enable data-driven prediction where the standard DMD fails.