Linyuan Geng

Linxiao Yang, Xue Jiang, Gezheng Xu et al.

Transformers enable in-context learning (ICL) for rapid, gradient-free adaptation in time series forecasting, yet most ICL-style approaches rely on tabularized, hand-crafted features, while end-to-end sequence models lack inference-time adaptation. We bridge this gap with a unified framework, Baguan-TS, which integrates the raw-sequence representation learning with ICL, instantiated by a 3D Transformer that attends jointly over temporal, variable, and context axes. To make this high-capacity model practical, we tackle two key hurdles: (i) calibration and training stability, improved with a feature-agnostic, target-space retrieval-based local calibration; and (ii) output oversmoothing, mitigated via context-overfitting strategy. On public benchmark with covariates, Baguan-TS consistently outperforms established baselines, achieving the highest win rate and significant reductions in both point and probabilistic forecasting metrics. Further evaluations across diverse real-world energy datasets demonstrate its robustness, yielding substantial improvements.

Linyuan Geng, Linxiao Yang, Xinyue Gu et al.

This paper presents SolarBoost, a novel approach for forecasting power output in distributed photovoltaic (DPV) systems. While existing centralized photovoltaic (CPV) methods are able to precisely model output dependencies due to uniformity, it is difficult to apply such techniques to DPV systems, as DPVs face challenges such as missing grid-level data, temporal shifts in installed capacity, geographic variability, and panel diversity. SolarBoost overcomes these challenges by modeling aggregated power output as a composite of output from small grids, where each grid output is modeled using a unit output function multiplied by its capacity. This approach decouples the homogeneous unit output function from dynamic capacity for accurate prediction. Efficient algorithms over an upper-bound approximation are proposed to overcome computational bottlenecks in loss functions. We demonstrate the superiority of grid-level modeling via theoretical analysis and experiments. SolarBoost has been validated through deployment across various cities in China, significantly reducing potential losses and provides valuable insights for the operation of power grids. The code for this work is available at https://github.com/DAMO-DI-ML/SolarBoost.