Leonard Göke

Diederik Coppitters, Gabriel Wiest, Leonard Göke et al.

Disruptions in energy imports, backlash in social acceptance, and novel technologies failing to develop are unexpected events that are often overlooked in energy planning, despite their ability to jeopardize the energy transition. We propose a method to explore unexpected events and assess their impact on the transition pathway of a large-scale whole-energy system. First, we evaluate unexpected events assuming "perfect foresight", where decision-makers can anticipate such events in advance. This allows us to identify dealbreakers, i.e., conditions that make the transition infeasible. Then, we assess the events under "limited foresight" to evaluate the robustness of early-stage decisions against unforeseen unexpected events and the costs associated with managing them. A case study for Belgium demonstrates that a lack of electrofuel imports in 2050 is the main dealbreaker, while accelerating the deployment of renewables is the most robust policy. Our transferable method can help policymakers identify key dealbreakers and devise robust energy transition policies.

Leonard Göke

AnyMOD.jl is a Julia framework for creating large-scale energy system models with multiple periods of capacity expansion. It applies a novel graphbased approach that was developed to address the challenges in modeling high levels of intermittent generation and sectoral integration. Created models are formulated as linear optimization problems using JuMP.jl as a backend. To enable modelers to work more efficiently, the framework provides additional features that help to visualize results, streamline the read-in of input data, and rescale optimization problems to increase solver performance.