Qiyu Han

Qiyu Han, Will Wei Sun, Yichen Zhang

The study of online decision-making problems that leverage contextual information has drawn notable attention due to their significant applications in fields ranging from healthcare to autonomous systems. In modern applications, contextual information can be rich and is often represented as a matrix. Moreover, while existing online decision algorithms mainly focus on reward maximization, less attention has been devoted to statistical inference. To address these gaps, in this work, we consider an online decision-making problem with a matrix context where the true model parameters have a low-rank structure. We propose a fully online procedure to conduct statistical inference with adaptively collected data. The low-rank structure of the model parameter and the adaptive nature of the data collection process make this difficult: standard low-rank estimators are biased and cannot be obtained in a sequential manner while existing inference approaches in sequential decision-making algorithms fail to account for the low-rankness and are also biased. To overcome these challenges, we introduce a new online debiasing procedure to simultaneously handle both sources of bias. Our inference framework encompasses both parameter inference and optimal policy value inference. In theory, we establish the asymptotic normality of the proposed online debiased estimators and prove the validity of the constructed confidence intervals for both inference tasks. Our inference results are built upon a newly developed low-rank stochastic gradient descent estimator and its convergence result, which are also of independent interest.

Zexu Sun, Qiyu Han, Minqin Zhu et al.

Improving user engagement and platform revenue is crucial for online marketing platforms. Uplift modeling is proposed to solve this problem, which applies different treatments (e.g., discounts, bonus) to satisfy corresponding users. Despite progress in this field, limitations persist. Firstly, most of them focus on scenarios where only user features exist. However, in real-world scenarios, there are rich contexts available in the online platform (e.g., short videos, news), and the uplift model needs to infer an incentive for each user on the specific item, which is called real-time marketing. Thus, only considering the user features will lead to biased prediction of the responses, which may cause the cumulative error for uplift prediction. Moreover, due to the large-scale contexts, directly concatenating the context features with the user features will cause a severe distribution shift in the treatment and control groups. Secondly, capturing the interaction relationship between the user features and context features can better predict the user response. To solve the above limitations, we propose a novel model-agnostic Robust Uplift Modeling with Large-Scale Contexts (UMLC) framework for Real-time Marketing. Our UMLC includes two customized modules. 1) A response-guided context grouping module for extracting context features information and condensing value space through clusters. 2) A feature interaction module for obtaining better uplift prediction. Specifically, this module contains two parts: a user-context interaction component for better modeling the response; a treatment-feature interaction component for discovering the treatment assignment sensitive feature of each instance to better predict the uplift. Moreover, we conduct extensive experiments on a synthetic dataset and a real-world product dataset to verify the effectiveness and compatibility of our UMLC.

Yiwei Dong, Shaoxin Ye, Yuwen Cao et al.

Asynchronous event sequence clustering aims to group similar event sequences in an unsupervised manner. Mixture models of temporal point processes have been proposed to solve this problem, but they often suffer from overfitting, leading to excessive cluster generation with a lack of diversity. To overcome these limitations, we propose a Bayesian mixture model of Temporal Point Processes with Determinantal Point Process prior (TP$^2$DP$^2$) and accordingly an efficient posterior inference algorithm based on conditional Gibbs sampling. Our work provides a flexible learning framework for event sequence clustering, enabling automatic identification of the potential number of clusters and accurate grouping of sequences with similar features. It is applicable to a wide range of parametric temporal point processes, including neural network-based models. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world data suggest that our framework could produce moderately fewer yet more diverse mixture components, and achieve outstanding results across multiple evaluation metrics.

Juan Shu, Qiyu Han, George Chen et al.

Estimating treatment effects in time series data presents a significant challenge, especially when the control group is always unobservable. For example, in analyzing the effects of Christmas on retail sales, we lack direct observation of what would have occurred in late December without the Christmas impact. To address this, we try to recover the control group in the event period while accounting for confounders and temporal dependencies. Experimental results on the M5 Walmart retail sales data demonstrate robust estimation of the potential outcome of the control group as well as accurate predicted holiday effect. Furthermore, we provided theoretical guarantees for the estimated treatment effect, proving its consistency and asymptotic normality. The proposed methodology is applicable not only to this always-missing control scenario but also in other conventional time series causal inference settings.