Tony Lindgren

L. A. Bull, D. Di Francesco, M. Dhada et al.

A population-level analysis is proposed to address data sparsity when building predictive models for engineering infrastructure. Utilising an interpretable hierarchical Bayesian approach and operational fleet data, domain expertise is naturally encoded (and appropriately shared) between different sub-groups, representing (i) use-type, (ii) component, or (iii) operating condition. Specifically, domain expertise is exploited to constrain the model via assumptions (and prior distributions) allowing the methodology to automatically share information between similar assets, improving the survival analysis of a truck fleet and power prediction in a wind farm. In each asset management example, a set of correlated functions is learnt over the fleet, in a combined inference, to learn a population model. Parameter estimation is improved when sub-fleets share correlated information at different levels of the hierarchy. In turn, groups with incomplete data automatically borrow statistical strength from those that are data-rich. The statistical correlations enable knowledge transfer via Bayesian transfer learning, and the correlations can be inspected to inform which assets share information for which effect (i.e. parameter). Both case studies demonstrate the wide applicability to practical infrastructure monitoring, since the approach is naturally adapted between interpretable fleet models of different in situ examples.

Korbinian Randl, Guido Rocchietti, Aron Henriksson et al.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems combine dense retrievers and language models to ground LLM outputs in retrieved documents. However, the opacity of how these components interact creates challenges for deployment in high-stakes domains. We present RAG-E, an end-to-end explainability framework that quantifies retriever-generator alignment through mathematically grounded attribution methods. Our approach adapts Integrated Gradients for retriever analysis, introduces PMCSHAP, a Monte Carlo-stabilized Shapley Value approximation, for generator attribution, and introduces the Weighted Attribution-Relevance Gap (WARG) metric to measure how well a generator's document usage aligns with a retriever's ranking. Empirical analysis on TREC CAsT and FoodSafeSum reveals critical misalignments: for 47.4% to 66.7% of queries, generators ignore the retriever's top-ranked documents, while 48.1% to 65.9% rely on documents ranked as less relevant. These failure modes demonstrate that RAG output quality depends not solely on individual component performance but on their interplay, which can be audited via RAG-E.

John Pavlopoulos, Alv Romell, Jacob Curman et al.

Automated fault diagnosis can facilitate diagnostics assistance, speedier troubleshooting, and better-organised logistics. Currently, AI-based prognostics and health management in the automotive industry ignore the textual descriptions of the experienced problems or symptoms. With this study, however, we show that a multilingual pre-trained Transformer can effectively classify the textual claims from a large company with vehicle fleets, despite the task's challenging nature due to the 38 languages and 1,357 classes involved. Overall, we report an accuracy of more than 80% for high-frequency classes and above 60% for above-low-frequency classes, bringing novel evidence that multilingual classification can benefit automotive troubleshooting management.

Korbinian Randl, John Pavlopoulos, Aron Henriksson et al.

This paper investigates the reliability of explanations generated by large language models (LLMs) when prompted to explain their previous output. We evaluate two kinds of such self-explanations - extractive and counterfactual - using three state-of-the-art LLMs (2B to 8B parameters) on two different classification tasks (objective and subjective). Our findings reveal, that, while these self-explanations can correlate with human judgement, they do not fully and accurately follow the model's decision process, indicating a gap between perceived and actual model reasoning. We show that this gap can be bridged because prompting LLMs for counterfactual explanations can produce faithful, informative, and easy-to-verify results. These counterfactuals offer a promising alternative to traditional explainability methods (e.g. SHAP, LIME), provided that prompts are tailored to specific tasks and checked for validity.

Korbinian Randl, John Pavlopoulos, Aron Henriksson et al.

Contaminated or adulterated food poses a substantial risk to human health. Given sets of labeled web texts for training, Machine Learning and Natural Language Processing can be applied to automatically detect such risks. We publish a dataset of 7,546 short texts describing public food recall announcements. Each text is manually labeled, on two granularity levels (coarse and fine), for food products and hazards that the recall corresponds to. We describe the dataset and benchmark naive, traditional, and Transformer models. Based on our analysis, Logistic Regression based on a tf-idf representation outperforms RoBERTa and XLM-R on classes with low support. Finally, we discuss different prompting strategies and present an LLM-in-the-loop framework, based on Conformal Prediction, which boosts the performance of the base classifier while reducing energy consumption compared to normal prompting.

Alejandro Kuratomi, Zed Lee, Guilherme Dinis Chaliane Junior et al.

Several interpretability methods for convolutional network-based classifiers exist. Most of these methods focus on extracting saliency maps for a given sample, providing a local explanation that highlights the main regions for the classification. However, some of these methods lack detailed explanations in the input space due to upscaling issues or may require random perturbations to extract the explanations. We propose Convolutional Rectifier for Interpretable Time Series Classification, or CRITS, as an interpretable model for time series classification that is designed to intrinsically extract local explanations. The proposed method uses a layer of convolutional kernels, a max-pooling layer and a fully-connected rectifier network (a network with only rectified linear unit activations). The rectified linear unit activation allows the extraction of the feature weights for the given sample, eliminating the need to calculate gradients, use random perturbations and the upscale of the saliency maps to the initial input space. We evaluate CRITS on a set of datasets, and study its classification performance and its explanation alignment, sensitivity and understandability.

Zahra Kharazian, Tony Lindgren, Sindri Magnússon et al.

Predicting failures and maintenance time in predictive maintenance is challenging due to the scarcity of comprehensive real-world datasets, and among those available, few are of time series format. This paper introduces a real-world, multivariate time series dataset collected exclusively from a single anonymized engine component (Component X) across a fleet of SCANIA trucks. The dataset includes operational data, repair records, and specifications related to Component X, while maintaining confidentiality through anonymization. It is well-suited for a range of machine learning applications, including classification, regression, survival analysis, and anomaly detection, particularly in predictive maintenance scenarios. The dataset's large population size, diverse features (in the form of histograms and numerical counters), and temporal information make it a unique resource in the field. The objective of releasing this dataset is to give a broad range of researchers the possibility of working with real-world data from an internationally well-known company and introduce a standard benchmark to the predictive maintenance field, fostering reproducible research.

Ali Beikmohammadi, Mohammad Hosein Hamian, Neda Khoeyniha et al.

The rapid influx of data-driven models into the industrial sector has been facilitated by the proliferation of sensor technology, enabling the collection of vast quantities of data. However, leveraging these models for failure detection and prognosis poses significant challenges, including issues like missing values and class imbalances. Moreover, the cost sensitivity associated with industrial operations further complicates the application of conventional models in this context. This paper introduces a novel cost-sensitive transformer model developed as part of a systematic workflow, which also integrates a hybrid resampler and a regression-based imputer. After subjecting our approach to rigorous testing using the APS failure dataset from Scania trucks and the SECOM dataset, we observed a substantial enhancement in performance compared to state-of-the-art methods. Moreover, we conduct an ablation study to analyze the contributions of different components in our proposed method. Our findings highlight the potential of our method in addressing the unique challenges of failure prediction in industrial settings, thereby contributing to enhanced reliability and efficiency in industrial operations.