Sungdong Yoo

Seunghan Lee, Jaehoon Lee, Jun Seo et al.

Recent advances in time series foundation models (TSFMs) demonstrate strong expressive capacity through large-scale pretraining across diverse time series domains. Zero-shot time series forecasting with TSFMs, however, exhibits limited generalization to unseen datasets, which retrieval-augmented forecasting addresses by leveraging an external knowledge base. Existing approaches rely on a fixed number of retrieved samples that may introduce irrelevant information. To this end, we propose Cross-RAG, a zero-shot retrieval-augmented forecasting framework that selectively attends to query-relevant retrieved samples. Cross-RAG models input-level relevance between the query and retrieved samples via query-retrieval cross-attention, while jointly incorporating information from the query and retrieved samples. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Cross-RAG consistently improves zero-shot forecasting performance across various TSFMs and RAG methods, and additional analyses confirm its effectiveness across diverse retrieval scenarios. Code is available at https://github.com/seunghan96/cross-rag/.

Seunghan Lee, Jun Seo, Jaehoon Lee et al.

Time series (TS) reasoning models (TSRMs) have shown promising capabilities in general domains, yet they consistently fail on financial domain, which exhibit unique characteristics. We propose a general 2x2 capability taxonomy for TSRMs by crossing 1) single-entity vs. multi-entity analysis with 2) assessment of the current state vs. prediction of future behavior. We instantiate this taxonomy in the financial domain -- where the distinction between deterministic assessment and stochastic prediction is particularly critical -- as ten financial reasoning tasks, forming the FinTSR-Bench benchmark based on S&P stocks. To this end, we propose FinSTaR (Financial Time Series Thinking and Reasoning), trained on FinTSR-Bench with distinct chain-of-thought (CoT) strategies tailored to each category. For assessment, which is deterministic (i.e., computable from observable data), we employ Compute-in-CoT, a programmatic CoT that enables models to derive answers directly from raw prices. For prediction, which is inherently stochastic (i.e., subject to unobservable factors), we adopt Scenario-Aware CoT, which generates diverse scenarios before making a judgment, mirroring how financial analysts reason under uncertainty. The proposed method achieves 78.9% average accuracy on FinTSR-Bench, substantially outperforming LLM and TSRM baselines. Furthermore, we show that the four capability categories are complementary and mutually reinforcing through joint training, and that Scenario-Aware CoT consistently improves prediction accuracy over standard CoT. Code is publicly available at: https://github.com/seunghan96/FinSTaR.

Seunghan Lee, Jun Seo, Jaehoon Lee et al.

Recent advances in multimodal learning have motivated the integration of auxiliary modalities such as text or vision into time series (TS) forecasting. However, most existing methods provide limited gains, often improving performance only in specific datasets or relying on architecture-specific designs that limit generalization. In this paper, we show that multimodal models with naive fusion strategies (e.g., simple addition or concatenation) often underperform unimodal TS models, which we attribute to the uncontrolled integration of auxiliary modalities which may introduce irrelevant information. Motivated by this observation, we explore various constrained fusion methods designed to control such integration and find that they consistently outperform naive fusion methods. Furthermore, we propose Controlled Fusion Adapter (CFA), a simple plug-in method that enables controlled cross-modal interactions without modifying the TS backbone, integrating only relevant textual information aligned with TS dynamics. CFA employs low-rank adapters to filter irrelevant textual information before fusing it into temporal representations. We conduct over 20K experiments across various datasets and TS/text models, demonstrating the effectiveness of the constrained fusion methods including CFA. Code is publicly available at: https://github.com/seunghan96/cfa/.

Jaehoon Lee, Suhwan Park, Tae Yoon Lim et al.

The financial domain involves a variety of important time-series problems. Recently, time-series analysis methods that jointly leverage textual and numerical information have gained increasing attention. Accordingly, numerous efforts have been made to construct text-paired time-series datasets in the financial domain. However, financial markets are characterized by complex interdependencies, in which a company's stock price is influenced not only by company-specific events but also by events in other companies and broader macroeconomic factors. Existing approaches that pair text with financial time-series data based on simple keyword matching often fail to capture such complex relationships. To address this limitation, we propose a semantic-based and multi-level pairing framework. Specifically, we extract company-specific context for the target company from SEC filings and apply an embedding-based matching mechanism to retrieve semantically relevant news articles based on this context. Furthermore, we classify news articles into four levels (macro-level, sector-level, related company-level, and target-company level) using large language models (LLMs), enabling multi-level pairing of news articles with the target company. Applying this framework to publicly-available news datasets, we construct \textbf{FinTexTS}, a new large-scale text-paired stock price dataset. Experimental results on \textbf{FinTexTS} demonstrate the effectiveness of our semantic-based and multi-level pairing strategy in stock price forecasting. In addition to publicly-available news underlying \textbf{FinTexTS}, we show that applying our method to proprietary yet carefully curated news sources leads to higher-quality paired data and improved stock price forecasting performance.

Hoyoung Lee, Wonbin Ahn, Suhwan Park et al.

Thematic investing, which aims to construct portfolios aligned with structural trends, remains a challenging endeavor due to overlapping sector boundaries and evolving market dynamics. A promising direction is to build semantic representations of investment themes from textual data. However, despite their power, general-purpose LLM embedding models are not well-suited to capture the nuanced characteristics of financial assets, since the semantic representation of investment assets may differ fundamentally from that of general financial text. To address this, we introduce THEME, a framework that fine-tunes embeddings using hierarchical contrastive learning. THEME aligns themes and their constituent stocks using their hierarchical relationship, and subsequently refines these embeddings by incorporating stock returns. This process yields representations effective for retrieving thematically aligned assets with strong return potential. Empirical results demonstrate that THEME excels in two key areas. For thematic asset retrieval, it significantly outperforms leading large language models. Furthermore, its constructed portfolios demonstrate compelling performance. By jointly modeling thematic relationships from text and market dynamics from returns, THEME generates stock embeddings specifically tailored for a wide range of practical investment applications.

Jun Seo, Hyeokjun Choe, Seohui Bae et al.

Time series forecasting is a critical task for artificial intelligence with numerous real-world applications. Traditional approaches primarily rely on historical time series data to predict the future values. However, in practical scenarios, this is often insufficient for accurate predictions due to the limited information available. To address this challenge, multimodal time series forecasting methods which incorporate additional data modalities, mainly text data, alongside time series data have been explored. In this work, we introduce the Adaptive Information Routing (AIR) framework, a novel approach for multimodal time series forecasting. Unlike existing methods that treat text data on par with time series data as interchangeable auxiliary features for forecasting, AIR leverages text information to dynamically guide the time series model by controlling how and to what extent multivariate time series information should be combined. We also present a text-refinement pipeline that employs a large language model to convert raw text data into a form suitable for multimodal forecasting, and we introduce a benchmark that facilitates multimodal forecasting experiments based on this pipeline. Experiment results with the real world market data such as crude oil price and exchange rates demonstrate that AIR effectively modulates the behavior of the time series model using textual inputs, significantly enhancing forecasting accuracy in various time series forecasting tasks.

Jinyoung Park, Sungdong Yoo, Jihwan Park et al.

Graph neural networks (GNNs) have significantly improved the representation power for graph-structured data. Despite of the recent success of GNNs, the graph convolution in most GNNs have two limitations. Since the graph convolution is performed in a small local neighborhood on the input graph, it is inherently incapable to capture long-range dependencies between distance nodes. In addition, when a node has neighbors that belong to different classes, i.e., heterophily, the aggregated messages from them often negatively affect representation learning. To address the two common problems of graph convolution, in this paper, we propose Deformable Graph Convolutional Networks (Deformable GCNs) that adaptively perform convolution in multiple latent spaces and capture short/long-range dependencies between nodes. Separated from node representations (features), our framework simultaneously learns the node positional embeddings (coordinates) to determine the relations between nodes in an end-to-end fashion. Depending on node position, the convolution kernels are deformed by deformation vectors and apply different transformations to its neighbor nodes. Our extensive experiments demonstrate that Deformable GCNs flexibly handles the heterophily and achieve the best performance in node classification tasks on six heterophilic graph datasets.