Zesheng Liu

Zesheng Liu, Maryam Rahnemoonfar

Accurate long-range prediction of geophysical systems is difficult due to strongly nonlinear dynamics, the high computational cost of full-physics simulations, and the error accumulation that arise when one-step autoregressive surrogates are rolled out over decades. Deep neural network can serve as efficient emulators, but most are trained only for next-step prediction and often drift or become unstable as the forecast horizon grows. We propose a multi-horizon graph neural network emulator that learns state-to-state transitions from a single current time to multiple future lead times within one unified model. The physical domain is represented as a graph, where nodes correspond to spatial locations with time-varying geophysical attributes and edges encode local spatial interactions. Given the current graph state, the model predicts the future evolution of key fields, ice thickness and ice velocities at all nodes, using a shared graph backbone with separate output branches for each target variable. To improve stability, the network predicts state increments relative to the current state, which are then added back to reconstruct future states. Training jointly optimizes all lead times with a unified regression objective, and inference uses a coarse-to-fine rollout that advances with larger jumps and selectively refines with shorter jumps to reduce drift and avoid redundant computation. Experiments on multi-decadal Pine Island Glacier simulations show that our approach achieves higher long-range accuracy and improved stability than both (i) an initial-state baseline that predicts each future time directly from the starting state and (ii) a standard single-step autoregressive rollout, producing a more reliable emulator for downstream climate and sea-level studies.

Zesheng Liu, Maryam Rahnemoonfar

Subsurface stratigraphy contains important spatio-temporal information about accumulation, deformation, and layer formation in polar ice sheets. In particular, variations in internal ice layer thickness provide valuable constraints for snow mass balance estimation and projections of ice sheet change. Although radar sensors can capture these layered structures as depth-resolved radargrams, convolutional neural networks applied directly to radar images are often sensitive to speckle noise and acquisition artifacts. In addition, purely data-driven methods may underuse physical knowledge, leading to unrealistic thickness estimates under spatial or temporal extrapolation. To address these challenges, we develop K-STEMIT, a novel knowledge-informed, efficient, multi-branch spatio-temporal graph neural network that combines a geometric framework for spatial learning with temporal convolution to capture temporal dynamics, and incorporates physical data synchronized from the Model Atmospheric Regional physical weather model. An adaptive feature fusion strategy is employed to dynamically combine features learned from different branches. Extensive experiments have been conducted to compare K-STEMIT against current state-of-the-art methods in both knowledge-informed and non-knowledge-informed settings, as well as other existing methods. Results show that K-STEMIT consistently achieves the highest accuracy while maintaining near-optimal efficiency. Most notably, incorporating adaptive feature fusion and physical priors reduces the root mean-squared error by 21.01% with negligible additional cost compared to its conventional multi-branch variants. Additionally, our proposed K-STEMIT achieves consistently lower per-year relative MAE, enabling reliable, continuous spatiotemporal assessment of snow accumulation variability across large spatial regions.

Zesheng Liu, Doyup Kwon, Ning Lin et al.

Accurate and efficient storm-surge emulation is essential for coastal hazard assessment, yet high-fidelity hydrodynamic models remain too expensive for large scenario ensembles and rapid evaluation under heterogeneous climate forcings. We present PACT, a peak-aware cross-attention graph transformer for efficient station-level storm-surge prediction from atmospheric forcing fields. PACT represents each forcing patch as a graph, encodes spatial structure with GraphSAGE, and uses a learned station query to aggregate node information through cross-attention rather than uniform pooling. A Transformer encoder models temporal dependence across the forcing history, and a horizon-query decoder generates lead-specific forecasts from a shared temporal memory. To better capture extreme events, we introduce a peak-aware learning strategy that couples a lightweight auxiliary peak-aware head with a tailored training objective, including a tail-focused loss on peak-dominated samples and a horizon-wise slope regularizer to encourage coherent multi-step evolution. Across multiple tide-gauge stations along the US Northeast coast, PACT outperforms a strong spatio-temporal graph neural network baseline in both RMSE and MAE. Diagnostics show improved peak fidelity and tail preservation for reanalysis and most CMIP6 datasets. PACT is also computationally efficient, requiring about 3.5~s to generate a full winter-season surge trajectory for one year after training. Under distribution shift across five CMIP6 forcings, PACT transfers well within the CMIP6 family but degrades markedly when transferring from reanalysis to climate-model forcings, highlighting a persistent reanalysis--GCM gap.

Zesheng Liu, Maryam Rahnemoonfar

Internal ice layers imaged by radar provide key evidence of snow accumulation and ice dynamics, but radar-derived layer boundary observations are often incomplete, with discontinuous traces and sometimes entirely missing layers, due to limited resolution, sensor noise, and signal loss. Existing graph-based models for ice stratigraphy generally assume sufficiently complete layer profiles and focus on predicting deeper-layer thickness from reliably traced shallow layers. In this work, we address the layer-completion problem itself by synthesizing complete ice-layer thickness annotations from incomplete radar-derived layer traces by conditioning on colocated physical features synchronized from physical climate models. The proposed network combines geometric learning to aggregate within-layer spatial context with a transformer-based temporal module that propagates information across layers to encourage coherent stratigraphy and consistent thickness evolution. To learn from incomplete supervision, we optimize a mask-aware robust regression objective that evaluates errors only at observed thickness values and normalizes by the number of valid entries, enabling stable training under varying sparsity without imputation and steering completions toward physically plausible values. The model preserves observed thickness where available and infers only missing regions, recovering fragmented segments and even fully absent layers while remaining consistent with measured traces. As an additional benefit, the synthesized thickness stacks provide effective pretraining supervision for a downstream deep-layer predictor, improving fine-tuned accuracy over training from scratch on the same fully traced data.

Zesheng Liu, Maryam Rahnemoonfar

Understanding spatio-temporal patterns in polar ice layers is essential for tracking changes in ice sheet balance and assessing ice dynamics. While convolutional neural networks are widely used in learning ice layer patterns from raw echogram images captured by airborne snow radar sensors, noise in the echogram images prevents researchers from getting high-quality results. Instead, we focus on geometric deep learning using graph neural networks, aiming to build a spatio-temporal graph neural network that learns from thickness information of the top ice layers and predicts for deeper layers. In this paper, we developed a novel multi-branch spatio-temporal graph neural network that used the GraphSAGE framework for spatio features learning and a temporal convolution operation to capture temporal changes, enabling different branches of the network to be more specialized and focusing on a single learning task. We found that our proposed multi-branch network can consistently outperform the current fused spatio-temporal graph neural network in both accuracy and efficiency.

Zesheng Liu, YoungHyun Koo, Maryam Rahnemoonfar

The mass loss of the polar ice sheets contributes considerably to ongoing sea-level rise and changing ocean circulation, leading to coastal flooding and risking the homes and livelihoods of tens of millions of people globally. To address the complex problem of ice behavior, physical models and data-driven models have been proposed in the literature. Although traditional physical models can guarantee physically meaningful results, they have limitations in producing high-resolution results. On the other hand, data-driven approaches require large amounts of high-quality and labeled data, which is rarely available in the polar regions. Hence, as a promising framework that leverages the advantages of physical models and data-driven methods, physics-informed machine learning (PIML) has been widely studied in recent years. In this paper, we review the existing algorithms of PIML, provide our own taxonomy based on the methods of combining physics and data-driven approaches, and analyze the advantages of PIML in the aspects of accuracy and efficiency. Further, our survey discusses some current challenges and highlights future opportunities, including PIML on sea ice studies, PIML with different combination methods and backbone networks, and neural operator methods.

Zesheng Liu, Maryam Rahnemoonfar

Understanding the thickness and variability of internal ice layers in radar imagery is crucial for monitoring snow accumulation, assessing ice dynamics, and reducing uncertainties in climate models. Radar sensors, capable of penetrating ice, provide detailed radargram images of these internal layers. In this work, we present ST-GRIT, a spatio-temporal graph transformer for ice layer thickness, designed to process these radargrams and capture the spatiotemporal relationships between shallow and deep ice layers. ST-GRIT leverages an inductive geometric graph learning framework to extract local spatial features as feature embeddings and employs a series of temporal and spatial attention blocks separately to model long-range dependencies effectively in both dimensions. Experimental evaluation on radargram data from the Greenland ice sheet demonstrates that ST-GRIT consistently outperforms current state-of-the-art methods and other baseline graph neural networks by achieving lower root mean-squared error. These results highlight the advantages of self-attention mechanisms on graphs over pure graph neural networks, including the ability to handle noise, avoid oversmoothing, and capture long-range dependencies. Moreover, the use of separate spatial and temporal attention blocks allows for distinct and robust learning of spatial relationships and temporal patterns, providing a more comprehensive and effective approach.

Zesheng Liu, Maryam Rahnemoonfar

Gaining a deeper understanding of the thickness and variability of internal ice layers in Radar imagery is essential in monitoring the snow accumulation, better evaluating ice dynamics processes, and minimizing uncertainties in climate models. Radar sensors, capable of penetrating ice, capture detailed radargram images of internal ice layers. In this work, we introduce GRIT, graph transformer for ice layer thickness. GRIT integrates an inductive geometric graph learning framework with an attention mechanism, designed to map the relationships between shallow and deeper ice layers. Compared to baseline graph neural networks, GRIT demonstrates consistently lower prediction errors. These results highlight the attention mechanism's effectiveness in capturing temporal changes across ice layers, while the graph transformer combines the strengths of transformers for learning long-range dependencies with graph neural networks for capturing spatial patterns, enabling robust modeling of complex spatiotemporal dynamics.

Zesheng Liu, Maryam Rahnemoonfar

Learning spatio-temporal patterns of polar ice layers is crucial for monitoring the change in ice sheet balance and evaluating ice dynamic processes. While a few researchers focus on learning ice layer patterns from echogram images captured by airborne snow radar sensors via different convolutional neural networks, the noise in the echogram images proves to be a major obstacle. Instead, we focus on geometric deep learning based on graph neural networks to learn the spatio-temporal patterns from thickness information of shallow ice layers and make predictions for deep layers. In this paper, we propose a physics-informed hybrid graph neural network that combines the GraphSAGE framework for graph feature learning with the long short-term memory (LSTM) structure for learning temporal changes, and introduce measurements of physical ice properties from Model Atmospheric Regional (MAR) weather model as physical node features. We found that our proposed network can consistently outperform the current non-inductive or non-physical model in predicting deep ice layer thickness.