Shirong Zeng

Chuwen Wang, Shirong Zeng, Cheng Wang

Large language models (LLMs), in conjunction with various reasoning reinforcement methodologies, have demonstrated remarkable capabilities comparable to humans in fields such as mathematics, law, coding, common sense, and world knowledge. In this paper, we delve into the reasoning abilities of LLMs within complex human systems. We propose a novel reasoning framework, termed ``Mosaic Expert Observation Wall'' (MEOW) exploiting generative-agents-based simulation technique. In the MEOW framework, simulated data are utilized to train an expert model concentrating ``experience'' about a specific task in each independent time of simulation. It is the accumulated ``experience'' through the simulation that makes for an expert on a task in a complex human system. We conduct the experiments within a communication game that mirrors real-world security scenarios. The results indicate that our proposed methodology can cooperate with existing methodologies to enhance the reasoning abilities of LLMs in complex human systems.

Cheng Wang, Chuwen Wang, Shirong Zeng et al.

The high-order complexity of human behaviour is likely the root cause of extreme difficulty in financial market projections. We consider that behavioural simulation can unveil systemic dynamics to support analysis. Simulating diverse human groups must account for the behavioural heterogeneity, especially in finance. To address the fidelity of simulated agents, on the basis of agent-based modeling, we propose a new paradigm of behavioural simulation where each agent is supported and driven by a hierarchical knowledge architecture. This architecture, integrating language and professional models, imitates behavioural processes in specific scenarios. Evaluated on futures markets, our simulator achieves a 13.29% deviation in simulating crisis scenarios whose price increase rate reaches 285.34%. Under normal conditions, our simulator also exhibits lower mean square error in predicting futures price of specific commodities. This technique bridges non-quantitative information with diverse market behaviour, offering a promising platform to simulate investor behaviour and its impact on market dynamics.

Cheng Wang, Chuwen Wang, Wang Zhang et al.

As artificial intelligence becomes increasingly prevalent in scientific research, data-driven methodologies appear to overshadow traditional approaches in resolving scientific problems. In this Perspective, we revisit a classic classification of scientific problems and acknowledge that a series of unresolved problems remain. Throughout the history of researching scientific problems, scientists have continuously formed new paradigms facilitated by advances in data, algorithms, and computational power. To better tackle unresolved problems, especially those of organised complexity, a novel paradigm is necessitated. While recognising that the strengths of new paradigms have expanded the scope of resolvable scientific problems, we aware that the continued advancement of data, algorithms, and computational power alone is hardly to bring a new paradigm. We posit that the integration of paradigms, which capitalises on the strengths of each, represents a promising approach. Specifically, we focus on next-generation simulation (NGS), which can serve as a platform to integrate methods from different paradigms. We propose a methodology, sophisticated behavioural simulation (SBS), to realise it. SBS represents a higher level of paradigms integration based on foundational models to simulate complex systems, such as social systems involving sophisticated human strategies and behaviours. NGS extends beyond the capabilities of traditional mathematical modelling simulations and agent-based modelling simulations, and therefore, positions itself as a potential solution to problems of organised complexity in complex systems.