Jan Sobotka

Jan Sobotka, Mustafa O. Karabag, Ufuk Topcu

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly tasked with strategic decision-making under incomplete information, such as in negotiation and policymaking. While LLMs can excel at many such tasks, they also fail in ways that are poorly understood. We shed light on these failures by uncovering two fundamental gaps in the internal mechanisms underlying the decision-making of LLMs in incomplete-information games, supported by experiments with open-weight models Llama 3.1, Qwen3, and gpt-oss. First, an observation-belief gap: LLMs encode internal beliefs about latent game states that are substantially more accurate than their own verbal reports, yet these beliefs are brittle. In particular, the belief accuracy degrades with multi-hop reasoning, exhibits primacy and recency biases, and drifts away from Bayesian coherence over extended interactions. Second, a belief-action gap: The implicit conversion of internal beliefs into actions is weaker than that of the beliefs externalized in the prompt, yet neither belief-conditioning consistently achieves higher game payoffs. These results show how analyzing LLMs' internal processes can expose systematic vulnerabilities that warrant caution before deploying LLMs in strategic domains without robust guardrails.

Mustafa O. Karabag, Jan Sobotka, Ufuk Topcu

Large language model-based (LLM-based) agents have become common in settings that include non-cooperative parties. In such settings, agents' decision-making needs to conceal information from their adversaries, reveal information to their cooperators, and infer information to identify the other agents' characteristics. To investigate whether LLMs have these information control and decision-making capabilities, we make LLM agents play the language-based hidden-identity game, The Chameleon. In this game, a group of non-chameleon agents who do not know each other aim to identify the chameleon agent without revealing a secret. The game requires the aforementioned information control capabilities both as a chameleon and a non-chameleon. We begin with a theoretical analysis for a spectrum of strategies, from concealing to revealing, and provide bounds on the non-chameleons' winning probability. The empirical results with GPT, Gemini 2.5 Pro, Llama 3.1, and Qwen3 models show that while non-chameleon LLM agents identify the chameleon, they fail to conceal the secret from the chameleon, and their winning probability is far from the levels of even trivial strategies. Based on these empirical results and our theoretical analysis, we deduce that LLM-based agents may reveal excessive information to agents of unknown identities. Interestingly, we find that, when instructed to adopt an information-revealing level, this level is linearly encoded in the LLM's internal representations. While the instructions alone are often ineffective at making non-chameleon LLMs conceal, we show that steering the internal representations in this linear direction directly can reliably induce concealing behavior.

Myeongho Jeon, Jan Sobotka, Suhwan Choi et al.

As future superhuman models become increasingly complex, accurately supervising their behavior may exceed human capabilities. Recent works have demonstrated that in such scenarios, weak models can effectively supervise strong models, a phenomenon known as weak-to-strong generalization. However, we find that naive weak-to-strong generalization fails under distribution shifts, often leading to worse performance of the strong model than its weak supervisors. To address this, we propose RAVEN, a robust weak-to-strong generalization framework that dynamically learns the optimal combinations of weak models in addition to parameters of the strong model. We demonstrate the effectiveness of RAVEN on image classification, text classification, and preference alignment tasks. RAVEN outperforms alternative baselines by over 30% on out-of-distribution tasks while matching or surpassing existing methods on in-distribution tasks. Moreover, our results show that RAVEN assigns higher weights to more accurate weak models, demonstrating its ability to automatically identify trustworthy supervision.

Jan Sobotka, Luca Baroni, Ján Antolík

Decoding visual stimuli from neural population activity is crucial for understanding the brain and for applications in brain-machine interfaces. However, such biological data is often scarce, particularly in primates or humans, where high-throughput recording techniques, such as two-photon imaging, remain challenging or impossible to apply. This, in turn, poses a challenge for deep learning decoding techniques. To overcome this, we introduce MEIcoder, a biologically informed decoding method that leverages neuron-specific most exciting inputs (MEIs), a structural similarity index measure loss, and adversarial training. MEIcoder achieves state-of-the-art performance in reconstructing visual stimuli from single-cell activity in primary visual cortex (V1), especially excelling on small datasets with fewer recorded neurons. Using ablation studies, we demonstrate that MEIs are the main drivers of the performance, and in scaling experiments, we show that MEIcoder can reconstruct high-fidelity natural-looking images from as few as 1,000-2,500 neurons and less than 1,000 training data points. We also propose a unified benchmark with over 160,000 samples to foster future research. Our results demonstrate the feasibility of reliable decoding in early visual system and provide practical insights for neuroscience and neuroengineering applications.

Jan Sobotka, Petr Šimánek, Pavel Kordík

Fractional Gradient Descent (FGD) offers a novel and promising way to accelerate optimization by incorporating fractional calculus into machine learning. Although FGD has shown encouraging initial results across various optimization tasks, it faces significant challenges with convergence behavior and hyperparameter selection. Moreover, the impact of its hyperparameters is not fully understood, and scheduling them is particularly difficult in non-convex settings such as neural network training. To address these issues, we propose a novel approach called Learning to Optimize Caputo Fractional Gradient Descent (L2O-CFGD), which meta-learns how to dynamically tune the hyperparameters of Caputo FGD (CFGD). Our method's meta-learned schedule outperforms CFGD with static hyperparameters found through an extensive search and, in some tasks, achieves performance comparable to a fully black-box meta-learned optimizer. L2O-CFGD can thus serve as a powerful tool for researchers to identify high-performing hyperparameters and gain insights on how to leverage the history-dependence of the fractional differential in optimization.

Jan Sobotka, Petr Šimánek, Daniel Vašata

Optimization is an integral part of modern deep learning. Recently, the concept of learned optimizers has emerged as a way to accelerate this optimization process by replacing traditional, hand-crafted algorithms with meta-learned functions. Despite the initial promising results of these methods, issues with stability and generalization still remain, limiting their practical use. Moreover, their inner workings and behavior under different conditions are not yet fully understood, making it difficult to come up with improvements. For this reason, our work examines their optimization trajectories from the perspective of network architecture symmetries and parameter update distributions. Furthermore, by contrasting the learned optimizers with their manually designed counterparts, we identify several key insights that demonstrate how each approach can benefit from the strengths of the other.