Linwei Hu

Alice J. Liu, Arpita Mukherjee, Linwei Hu et al.

This paper compares the performances of three supervised machine learning algorithms in terms of predictive ability and model interpretation on structured or tabular data. The algorithms considered were scikit-learn implementations of extreme gradient boosting machines (XGB) and random forests (RFs), and feedforward neural networks (FFNNs) from TensorFlow. The paper is organized in a findings-based manner, with each section providing general conclusions supported by empirical results from simulation studies that cover a wide range of model complexity and correlation structures among predictors. We considered both continuous and binary responses of different sample sizes. Overall, XGB and FFNNs were competitive, with FFNNs showing better performance in smooth models and tree-based boosting algorithms performing better in non-smooth models. This conclusion held generally for predictive performance, identification of important variables, and determining correct input-output relationships as measured by partial dependence plots (PDPs). FFNNs generally had less over-fitting, as measured by the difference in performance between training and testing datasets. However, the difference with XGB was often small. RFs did not perform well in general, confirming the findings in the literature. All models exhibited different degrees of bias seen in PDPs, but the bias was especially problematic for RFs. The extent of the biases varied with correlation among predictors, response type, and data set sample size. In general, tree-based models tended to over-regularize the fitted model in the tails of predictor distributions. Finally, as to be expected, performances were better for continuous responses compared to binary data and with larger samples.

Linwei Hu, Jie Chen, Vijayan N. Nair

Low-order functional ANOVA (fANOVA) models have been rediscovered in the machine learning (ML) community under the guise of inherently interpretable machine learning. Explainable Boosting Machines or EBM (Lou et al. 2013) and GAMI-Net (Yang et al. 2021) are two recently proposed ML algorithms for fitting functional main effects and second-order interactions. We propose a new algorithm, called GAMI-Tree, that is similar to EBM, but has a number of features that lead to better performance. It uses model-based trees as base learners and incorporates a new interaction filtering method that is better at capturing the underlying interactions. In addition, our iterative training method converges to a model with better predictive performance, and the embedded purification ensures that interactions are hierarchically orthogonal to main effects. The algorithm does not need extensive tuning, and our implementation is fast and efficient. We use simulated and real datasets to compare the performance and interpretability of GAMI-Tree with EBM and GAMI-Net.

Zhipu Zhou, Jie Chen, Linwei Hu

Shapley-related techniques have gained attention as both global and local interpretation tools because of their desirable properties. However, their computation using conditional expectations is computationally expensive. Approximation methods suggested in the literature have limitations. This paper proposes the use of a surrogate model-based tree to compute Shapley and SHAP values based on conditional expectation. Simulation studies show that the proposed algorithm provides improvements in accuracy, unifies global Shapley and SHAP interpretation, and the thresholding method provides a way to trade-off running time and accuracy.

Linwei Hu, Ke Wang

SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) has become a popular method to attribute the prediction of a machine learning model on an input to its features. One main challenge of SHAP is the computation time. An exact computation of Shapley values requires exponential time complexity. Therefore, many approximation methods are proposed in the literature. In this paper, we propose methods that can compute SHAP exactly in polynomial time or even faster for SHAP definitions that satisfy our additivity and dummy assumptions (eg, kernal SHAP and baseline SHAP). We develop different strategies for models with different levels of model structure information: known functional decomposition, known order of model (defined as highest order of interaction in the model), or unknown order. For the first case, we demonstrate an additive property and a way to compute SHAP from the lower-order functional components. For the second case, we derive formulas that can compute SHAP in polynomial time. Both methods yield exact SHAP results. Finally, if even the order of model is unknown, we propose an iterative way to approximate Shapley values. The three methods we propose are computationally efficient when the order of model is not high which is typically the case in practice. We compare with sampling approach proposed in Castor & Gomez (2008) using simulation studies to demonstrate the efficacy of our proposed methods.