Maximilian J. Werner

Sacha Lapins, Antony Butcher, J. -Michael Kendall et al.

This article presents a weakly supervised machine learning method, which we call DAS-N2N, for suppressing strong random noise in distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) recordings. DAS-N2N requires no manually produced labels (i.e., pre-determined examples of clean event signals or sections of noise) for training and aims to map random noise processes to a chosen summary statistic, such as the distribution mean, median or mode, whilst retaining the true underlying signal. This is achieved by splicing (joining together) two fibres hosted within a single optical cable, recording two noisy copies of the same underlying signal corrupted by different independent realizations of random observational noise. A deep learning model can then be trained using only these two noisy copies of the data to produce a near fully-denoised copy. Once the model is trained, only noisy data from a single fibre is required. Using a dataset from a DAS array deployed on the surface of the Rutford Ice Stream in Antarctica, we demonstrate that DAS-N2N greatly suppresses incoherent noise and enhances the signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) of natural microseismic icequake events. We further show that this approach is inherently more efficient and effective than standard stop/pass band and white noise (e.g., Wiener) filtering routines, as well as a comparable self-supervised learning method based on masking individual DAS channels. Our preferred model for this task is lightweight, processing 30 seconds of data recorded at a sampling frequency of 1000 Hz over 985 channels (approx. 1 km of fiber) in $<$1 s. Due to the high noise levels in DAS recordings, efficient data-driven denoising methods, such as DAS-N2N, will prove essential to time-critical DAS earthquake detection, particularly in the case of microseismic monitoring.

Samuel Stockman, Daniel Lawson, Maximilian Werner

For decades, classical point process models, such as the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, have been widely used for forecasting the event times and locations of earthquakes. Recent advances have led to Neural Point Processes (NPPs), which promise greater flexibility and improvements over such classical models. However, the currently-used benchmark for NPPs does not represent an up-to-date challenge in the seismological community, since it contains data leakage and omits the largest earthquake sequence from the region. Additionally, initial earthquake forecasting benchmarks fail to compare NPPs with state-of-the-art forecasting models commonly used in seismology. To address these gaps, we introduce EarthquakeNPP: a collection of benchmark datasets to facilitate testing of NPPs on earthquake data, accompanied by an implementation of the state-of-the-art forecasting model: ETAS. The datasets cover a range of small to large target regions within California, dating from 1971 to 2021, and include different methodologies for dataset generation. Benchmarking experiments, using both log-likelihood and generative evaluation metrics widely recognised in seismology, show that none of the five NPPs tested outperform ETAS. These findings suggest that current NPP implementations are not yet suitable for practical earthquake forecasting. Nonetheless, EarthquakeNPP provides a platform to foster future collaboration between the seismology and machine learning communities.