Grant A. Duffy

David Ouyang, John Theurer, Nathan R. Stein et al.

Background. Pre-operative risk assessments used in clinical practice are limited in their ability to identify risk for post-operative mortality. We hypothesize that electrocardiograms contain hidden risk markers that can help prognosticate post-operative mortality. Methods. In a derivation cohort of 45,969 pre-operative patients (age 59+- 19 years, 55 percent women), a deep learning algorithm was developed to leverage waveform signals from pre-operative ECGs to discriminate post-operative mortality. Model performance was assessed in a holdout internal test dataset and in two external hospital cohorts and compared with the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) score. Results. In the derivation cohort, there were 1,452 deaths. The algorithm discriminates mortality with an AUC of 0.83 (95% CI 0.79-0.87) surpassing the discrimination of the RCRI score with an AUC of 0.67 (CI 0.61-0.72) in the held out test cohort. Patients determined to be high risk by the deep learning model's risk prediction had an unadjusted odds ratio (OR) of 8.83 (5.57-13.20) for post-operative mortality as compared to an unadjusted OR of 2.08 (CI 0.77-3.50) for post-operative mortality for RCRI greater than 2. The deep learning algorithm performed similarly for patients undergoing cardiac surgery with an AUC of 0.85 (CI 0.77-0.92), non-cardiac surgery with an AUC of 0.83 (0.79-0.88), and catherization or endoscopy suite procedures with an AUC of 0.76 (0.72-0.81). The algorithm similarly discriminated risk for mortality in two separate external validation cohorts from independent healthcare systems with AUCs of 0.79 (0.75-0.83) and 0.75 (0.74-0.76) respectively. Conclusion. The findings demonstrate how a novel deep learning algorithm, applied to pre-operative ECGs, can improve discrimination of post-operative mortality.

Grant Duffy, Shoa L. Clarke, Matthew Christensen et al.

Deep learning has been shown to accurately assess 'hidden' phenotypes and predict biomarkers from medical imaging beyond traditional clinician interpretation of medical imaging. Given the black box nature of artificial intelligence (AI) models, caution should be exercised in applying models to healthcare as prediction tasks might be short-cut by differences in demographics across disease and patient populations. Using large echocardiography datasets from two healthcare systems, we test whether it is possible to predict age, race, and sex from cardiac ultrasound images using deep learning algorithms and assess the impact of varying confounding variables. We trained video-based convolutional neural networks to predict age, sex, and race. We found that deep learning models were able to identify age and sex, while unable to reliably predict race. Without considering confounding differences between categories, the AI model predicted sex with an AUC of 0.85 (95% CI 0.84 - 0.86), age with a mean absolute error of 9.12 years (95% CI 9.00 - 9.25), and race with AUCs ranging from 0.63 - 0.71. When predicting race, we show that tuning the proportion of a confounding variable (sex) in the training data significantly impacts model AUC (ranging from 0.57 to 0.84), while in training a sex prediction model, tuning a confounder (race) did not substantially change AUC (0.81 - 0.83). This suggests a significant proportion of the model's performance on predicting race could come from confounding features being detected by AI. Further work remains to identify the particular imaging features that associate with demographic information and to better understand the risks of demographic identification in medical AI as it pertains to potentially perpetuating bias and disparities.