Kirstin Roster

Kirstin Roster, Colm Connaughton, Francisco A. Rodrigues

Recent infectious disease outbreaks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Zika epidemic in Brazil, have demonstrated both the importance and difficulty of accurately forecasting novel infectious diseases. When new diseases first emerge, we have little knowledge of the transmission process, the level and duration of immunity to reinfection, or other parameters required to build realistic epidemiological models. Time series forecasts and machine learning, while less reliant on assumptions about the disease, require large amounts of data that are also not available in early stages of an outbreak. In this study, we examine how knowledge of related diseases can help make predictions of new diseases in data-scarce environments using transfer learning. We implement both an empirical and a theoretical approach. Using empirical data from Brazil, we compare how well different machine learning models transfer knowledge between two different disease pairs: (i) dengue and Zika, and (ii) influenza and COVID-19. In the theoretical analysis, we generate data using different transmission and recovery rates with an SIR compartmental model, and then compare the effectiveness of different transfer learning methods. We find that transfer learning offers the potential to improve predictions, even beyond a model based on data from the target disease, though the appropriate source disease must be chosen carefully. While imperfect, these models offer an additional input for decision makers during pandemic response.

Caroline L. Alves, Aruane M. Pineda, Kirstin Roster et al.

Mental disorders are among the leading causes of disability worldwide. The first step in treating these conditions is to obtain an accurate diagnosis, but the absence of established clinical tests makes this task challenging. Machine learning algorithms can provide a possible solution to this problem, as we describe in this work. We present a method for the automatic diagnosis of mental disorders based on the matrix of connections obtained from EEG time series and deep learning. We show that our approach can classify patients with Alzheimer's disease and schizophrenia with a high level of accuracy. The comparison with the traditional cases, that use raw EEG time series, shows that our method provides the highest precision. Therefore, the application of deep neural networks on data from brain connections is a very promising method to the diagnosis of neurological disorders.