Connor Duffin

Alex Glyn-Davies, Connor Duffin, Ö. Deniz Akyildiz et al.

Incorporating unstructured data into physical models is a challenging problem that is emerging in data assimilation. Traditional approaches focus on well-defined observation operators whose functional forms are typically assumed to be known. This prevents these methods from achieving a consistent model-data synthesis in configurations where the mapping from data-space to model-space is unknown. To address these shortcomings, in this paper we develop a physics-informed dynamical variational autoencoder ($Φ$-DVAE) to embed diverse data streams into time-evolving physical systems described by differential equations. Our approach combines a standard, possibly nonlinear, filter for the latent state-space model and a VAE, to assimilate the unstructured data into the latent dynamical system. Unstructured data, in our example systems, comes in the form of video data and velocity field measurements, however the methodology is suitably generic to allow for arbitrary unknown observation operators. A variational Bayesian framework is used for the joint estimation of the encoding, latent states, and unknown system parameters. To demonstrate the method, we provide case studies with the Lorenz-63 ordinary differential equation, and the advection and Korteweg-de Vries partial differential equations. Our results, with synthetic data, show that $Φ$-DVAE provides a data efficient dynamics encoding methodology which is competitive with standard approaches. Unknown parameters are recovered with uncertainty quantification, and unseen data are accurately predicted.

Pengyu Zhang, Connor Duffin, Alex Glyn-Davies et al.

Super-resolution (SR) is a promising tool for generating high-fidelity simulations of physical systems from low-resolution data, enabling fast and accurate predictions in engineering applications. However, existing deep-learning based SR methods, require large labeled datasets and lack reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ), limiting their applicability in real-world scenarios. To overcome these challenges, we propose a probabilistic SR framework that leverages the Statistical Finite Element Method and energy-based generative modeling. Our method enables efficient high-resolution predictions with inherent UQ, while eliminating the need for extensive labeled datasets. The method is validated on a 2D Poisson example and compared with bicubic interpolation upscaling. Results demonstrate a computational speed-up over high-resolution numerical solvers while providing reliable uncertainty estimates.

Ömer Deniz Akyildiz, Connor Duffin, Sotirios Sabanis et al.

The recent statistical finite element method (statFEM) provides a coherent statistical framework to synthesise finite element models with observed data. Through embedding uncertainty inside of the governing equations, finite element solutions are updated to give a posterior distribution which quantifies all sources of uncertainty associated with the model. However to incorporate all sources of uncertainty, one must integrate over the uncertainty associated with the model parameters, the known forward problem of uncertainty quantification. In this paper, we make use of Langevin dynamics to solve the statFEM forward problem, studying the utility of the unadjusted Langevin algorithm (ULA), a Metropolis-free Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler, to build a sample-based characterisation of this otherwise intractable measure. Due to the structure of the statFEM problem, these methods are able to solve the forward problem without explicit full PDE solves, requiring only sparse matrix-vector products. ULA is also gradient-based, and hence provides a scalable approach up to high degrees-of-freedom. Leveraging the theory behind Langevin-based samplers, we provide theoretical guarantees on sampler performance, demonstrating convergence, for both the prior and posterior, in the Kullback-Leibler divergence, and, in Wasserstein-2, with further results on the effect of preconditioning. Numerical experiments are also provided, for both the prior and posterior, to demonstrate the efficacy of the sampler, with a Python package also included.

Connor Duffin, Edward Cripps, Thomas Stemler et al.

Statistical learning additions to physically derived mathematical models are gaining traction in the literature. A recent approach has been to augment the underlying physics of the governing equations with data driven Bayesian statistical methodology. Coined statFEM, the method acknowledges a priori model misspecification, by embedding stochastic forcing within the governing equations. Upon receipt of additional data, the posterior distribution of the discretised finite element solution is updated using classical Bayesian filtering techniques. The resultant posterior jointly quantifies uncertainty associated with the ubiquitous problem of model misspecification and the data intended to represent the true process of interest. Despite this appeal, computational scalability is a challenge to statFEM's application to high-dimensional problems typically experienced in physical and industrial contexts. This article overcomes this hurdle by embedding a low-rank approximation of the underlying dense covariance matrix, obtained from the leading order modes of the full-rank alternative. Demonstrated on a series of reaction-diffusion problems of increasing dimension, using experimental and simulated data, the method reconstructs the sparsely observed data-generating processes with minimal loss of information, in both the posterior mean and variance, paving the way for further integration of physical and probabilistic approaches to complex systems.