Russell K. Childers

Yewon Byun, Shantanu Gupta, Zachary C. Lipton et al.

Predictions and generations from large language models are increasingly being explored as an aid in limited data regimes, such as in computational social science and human subjects research. While prior technical work has mainly explored the potential to use model-predicted labels for unlabeled data in a principled manner, there is increasing interest in using large language models to generate entirely new synthetic samples (e.g., synthetic simulations), such as in responses to surveys. However, it remains unclear by what means practitioners can combine such data with real data and yet produce statistically valid conclusions upon them. In this paper, we introduce a new estimator based on generalized method of moments, providing a hyperparameter-free solution with strong theoretical guarantees to address this challenge. Intriguingly, we find that interactions between the moment residuals of synthetic data and those of real data (i.e., when they are predictive of each other) can greatly improve estimates of the target parameter. We validate the finite-sample performance of our estimator across different tasks in computational social science applications, demonstrating large empirical gains.

Nadja R. Ging-Jehli, Russell K. Childers, Joshua Lu et al.

How do we learn when to persist, when to let go, and when to shift gears? Gearshift Fellowship (GF) is the prototype of a new Supertask paradigm designed to model how humans and artificial agents adapt to shifting environment demands. Grounded in cognitive neuroscience, computational psychiatry, economics, and artificial intelligence, Supertasks combine computational neurocognitive modeling with serious gaming. This creates a dynamic, multi-mission environment engineered to assess mechanisms of adaptive behavior across cognitive and social contexts. Computational parameters explain behavior and probe mechanisms by controlling the game environment. Unlike traditional tasks, GF enables neurocognitive modeling of individual differences across perceptual decisions, learning, and meta-cognitive levels. This positions GF as a flexible testbed for understanding how cognitive-affective control processes, learning styles, strategy use, and motivational shifts adapt across contexts and over time. It serves as an experimental platform for scientists, a phenotype-to-mechanism intervention for clinicians, and a training tool for players aiming to strengthen self-regulated learning, mood, and stress resilience. Online study (n = 60, ongoing) results show that GF recovers effects from traditional neuropsychological tasks (construct validity), uncovers novel patterns in how learning differs across contexts and how clinical features map onto distinct adaptations. These findings pave the way for developing in-game interventions that foster self-efficacy and agency to cope with real-world stress and uncertainty. GF builds a new adaptive ecosystem designed to accelerate science, transform clinical care, and foster individual growth. It offers a mirror and training ground where humans and machines co-develop together deeper flexibility and awareness.