Seunghan Lee

Seunghan Lee, Jaehoon Lee, Jun Seo et al.

Recent advances in time series foundation models (TSFMs) demonstrate strong expressive capacity through large-scale pretraining across diverse time series domains. Zero-shot time series forecasting with TSFMs, however, exhibits limited generalization to unseen datasets, which retrieval-augmented forecasting addresses by leveraging an external knowledge base. Existing approaches rely on a fixed number of retrieved samples that may introduce irrelevant information. To this end, we propose Cross-RAG, a zero-shot retrieval-augmented forecasting framework that selectively attends to query-relevant retrieved samples. Cross-RAG models input-level relevance between the query and retrieved samples via query-retrieval cross-attention, while jointly incorporating information from the query and retrieved samples. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Cross-RAG consistently improves zero-shot forecasting performance across various TSFMs and RAG methods, and additional analyses confirm its effectiveness across diverse retrieval scenarios. Code is available at https://github.com/seunghan96/cross-rag/.

Seunghan Lee, Taeyoung Park, Kibok Lee

Masked time series modeling has recently gained much attention as a self-supervised representation learning strategy for time series. Inspired by masked image modeling in computer vision, recent works first patchify and partially mask out time series, and then train Transformers to capture the dependencies between patches by predicting masked patches from unmasked patches. However, we argue that capturing such patch dependencies might not be an optimal strategy for time series representation learning; rather, learning to embed patches independently results in better time series representations. Specifically, we propose to use 1) the simple patch reconstruction task, which autoencode each patch without looking at other patches, and 2) the simple patch-wise MLP that embeds each patch independently. In addition, we introduce complementary contrastive learning to hierarchically capture adjacent time series information efficiently. Our proposed method improves time series forecasting and classification performance compared to state-of-the-art Transformer-based models, while it is more efficient in terms of the number of parameters and training/inference time. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/seunghan96/pits.

Seunghan Lee, Taeyoung Park, Kibok Lee

Contrastive learning has shown to be effective to learn representations from time series in a self-supervised way. However, contrasting similar time series instances or values from adjacent timestamps within a time series leads to ignore their inherent correlations, which results in deteriorating the quality of learned representations. To address this issue, we propose SoftCLT, a simple yet effective soft contrastive learning strategy for time series. This is achieved by introducing instance-wise and temporal contrastive loss with soft assignments ranging from zero to one. Specifically, we define soft assignments for 1) instance-wise contrastive loss by the distance between time series on the data space, and 2) temporal contrastive loss by the difference of timestamps. SoftCLT is a plug-and-play method for time series contrastive learning that improves the quality of learned representations without bells and whistles. In experiments, we demonstrate that SoftCLT consistently improves the performance in various downstream tasks including classification, semi-supervised learning, transfer learning, and anomaly detection, showing state-of-the-art performance. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/seunghan96/softclt.

Seunghan Lee, Taeyoung Park, Kibok Lee

Recent advancements in foundation models have been successfully extended to the time series (TS) domain, facilitated by the emergence of large-scale TS datasets. However, previous efforts have primarily focused on designing model architectures to address explicit heterogeneity among datasets such as various numbers of channels, while often overlooking implicit heterogeneity such as varying dependencies between channels. In this work, we introduce the concept of partial channel dependence (PCD), which enables a more sophisticated adjustment of channel dependencies based on dataset-specific information. To achieve PCD, we propose a channel mask that captures the relationships between channels within a dataset using two key components: 1) a correlation matrix that encodes relative dependencies between channels, and 2) domain parameters that learn the absolute dependencies specific to each dataset, refining the correlation matrix. We validate the effectiveness of PCD across four tasks in TS including forecasting, classification, imputation, and anomaly detection, under diverse settings, including few-shot and zero-shot scenarios with both TS foundation models and single-task models. Code is available at https://github.com/seunghan96/CM.

Seunghan Lee, Juri Hong, Kibok Lee et al.

Mamba has recently emerged as a promising alternative to Transformers, offering near-linear complexity in processing sequential data. However, while channels in time series (TS) data have no specific order in general, recent studies have adopted Mamba to capture channel dependencies (CD) in TS, introducing a sequential order bias. To address this issue, we propose SOR-Mamba, a TS forecasting method that 1) incorporates a regularization strategy to minimize the discrepancy between two embedding vectors generated from data with reversed channel orders, thereby enhancing robustness to channel order, and 2) eliminates the 1D-convolution originally designed to capture local information in sequential data. Furthermore, we introduce channel correlation modeling (CCM), a pretraining task aimed at preserving correlations between channels from the data space to the latent space in order to enhance the ability to capture CD. Extensive experiments demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method across standard and transfer learning scenarios. Code is available at https://github.com/seunghan96/SOR-Mamba.

Seunghan Lee, Taeyoung Park, Kibok Lee

Channel identifiability (CID) refers to the ability to distinguish between individual channels in time series (TS) modeling. The absence of CID often results in producing identical outputs for identical inputs, disregarding channel-specific characteristics. In this paper, we highlight the importance of CID and propose Channel Normalization (CN), a simple yet effective normalization strategy that enhances CID by assigning distinct affine transformation parameters to each channel. We further extend CN in two ways: 1) Adaptive CN (ACN) dynamically adjusts parameters based on the input TS, improving adaptability in TS models, and 2) Prototypical CN (PCN) introduces a set of learnable prototypes instead of per-channel parameters, enabling applicability to datasets with unknown or varying number of channels and facilitating use in TS foundation models. We demonstrate the effectiveness of CN and its variants by applying them to various TS models, achieving significant performance gains for both non-CID and CID models. In addition, we analyze the success of our approach from an information theory perspective. Code is available at https://github.com/seunghan96/CN.

Jaehoon Lee, Suhwan Park, Tae Yoon Lim et al.

The financial domain involves a variety of important time-series problems. Recently, time-series analysis methods that jointly leverage textual and numerical information have gained increasing attention. Accordingly, numerous efforts have been made to construct text-paired time-series datasets in the financial domain. However, financial markets are characterized by complex interdependencies, in which a company's stock price is influenced not only by company-specific events but also by events in other companies and broader macroeconomic factors. Existing approaches that pair text with financial time-series data based on simple keyword matching often fail to capture such complex relationships. To address this limitation, we propose a semantic-based and multi-level pairing framework. Specifically, we extract company-specific context for the target company from SEC filings and apply an embedding-based matching mechanism to retrieve semantically relevant news articles based on this context. Furthermore, we classify news articles into four levels (macro-level, sector-level, related company-level, and target-company level) using large language models (LLMs), enabling multi-level pairing of news articles with the target company. Applying this framework to publicly-available news datasets, we construct \textbf{FinTexTS}, a new large-scale text-paired stock price dataset. Experimental results on \textbf{FinTexTS} demonstrate the effectiveness of our semantic-based and multi-level pairing strategy in stock price forecasting. In addition to publicly-available news underlying \textbf{FinTexTS}, we show that applying our method to proprietary yet carefully curated news sources leads to higher-quality paired data and improved stock price forecasting performance.