Thomas Cass

Konrad J. Mueller, Nikita Zozoulenko, Ben Wood et al.

Generating realistic financial time series is challenging as training data is often limited to a single historical path. With such scarce data, overfitting is hard to avoid, especially under adversarial training where a trained discriminator can memorize the training samples. To mitigate this, recent approaches train generators to minimize the discrepancy between untrained feature representations of real and generated time series. In these works, the feature maps are based on path signatures, which can fail to capture relevant time series properties at tractable truncation depths. In this work, we instead train generators by matching random convolutional features of real and generated time series. Existing random convolutional feature maps, such as Rocket and Hydra, have been shown to provide informative representations of real-world time series, but cannot supervise generative models because they are non-differentiable. We introduce SOCK (SOft Competing Kernels), a fully differentiable random convolutional feature map, suited to train generative time series models. We show that generators trained by matching random SOCK features consistently outperform signature and diffusion baselines across a wide range of small-sample financial datasets. We further demonstrate SOCK's expressiveness on two-sample hypothesis testing and time series classification tasks, where SOCK matches or outperforms existing unsupervised feature maps.

Nikita Zozoulenko, Daniel Falkowski, Thomas Cass et al.

Gradient Boosting Decision Trees (GBDTs) dominate tabular machine learning, with modern implementations like XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost being based on Newton boosting: a second-order descent step in the space of decision trees. Despite its empirical success, the global convergence of Newton boosting is poorly understood compared to first-order boosting. In this paper, we introduce Restricted Newton Descent, which studies convex optimization with Newton's method on Hilbert spaces with inexact iterates, based on the concepts of cosine angle and weak gradient edge. Within this framework, we recover Newton boosting with GBDTs and classical finite-dimensional theory as special cases. We first prove that vanilla Newton boosting achieves a linear rate of convergence for smooth, strongly convex losses that satisfy a Hessian-dominance condition. To handle general convex losses with Lipschitz Hessians, we extend a recent gradient regularized Newton scheme to the restricted weak learner setting. This scheme minimally modifies the classical algorithm by introducing an adaptive $\ell_2$-regularization term proportional to the square root of the gradient norm at each iteration. We establish a $\mathcal{O}(\frac{1}{k^2})$ rate for this scheme, thereby obtaining a globally convergent second-order GBDT algorithm with a rate matching that of first-order boosting with Nesterov momentum. In numerical experiments, we show that our scheme converges while vanilla Newton boosting may diverge.

Thomas Cass, Christian Litterer

It was pointed out in Crisan, Ghazali [2] that the error estimate for the cubature on Wiener space algorithm developed in Lyons, Victoir [11] requires an additional assumption on the drift. In this note we demonstrate that it is straightforward to adopt the analysis of Kusuoka [7] to obtain a general estimate without an additional assumptions on the drift. In the process we slightly sharpen the bounds derived in [7].

Andraž Jelinčič, Jiajie Tao, William F. Turner et al.

It is well understood that, when numerically simulating SDEs with general noise, achieving a strong convergence rate better than $O(\sqrt{h})$ (where h is the step size) requires the use of certain iterated integrals of Brownian motion, commonly referred to as its "Lévy areas". However, these stochastic integrals are difficult to simulate due to their non-Gaussian nature and for a $d$-dimensional Brownian motion with $d > 2$, no fast almost-exact sampling algorithm is known. In this paper, we propose LévyGAN, a deep-learning-based model for generating approximate samples of Lévy area conditional on a Brownian increment. Due to our "Bridge-flipping" operation, the output samples match all joint and conditional odd moments exactly. Our generator employs a tailored GNN-inspired architecture, which enforces the correct dependency structure between the output distribution and the conditioning variable. Furthermore, we incorporate a mathematically principled characteristic-function based discriminator. Lastly, we introduce a novel training mechanism termed "Chen-training", which circumvents the need for expensive-to-generate training data-sets. This new training procedure is underpinned by our two main theoretical results. For 4-dimensional Brownian motion, we show that LévyGAN exhibits state-of-the-art performance across several metrics which measure both the joint and marginal distributions. We conclude with a numerical experiment on the log-Heston model, a popular SDE in mathematical finance, demonstrating that high-quality synthetic Lévy area can lead to high order weak convergence and variance reduction when using multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC).

Nikita Zozoulenko, Thomas Cass, Lukas Gonon

The Mahalanobis distance is a classical tool used to measure the covariance-adjusted distance between points in $\bbR^d$. In this work, we extend the concept of Mahalanobis distance to separable Banach spaces by reinterpreting it as a Cameron-Martin norm associated with a probability measure. This approach leads to a basis-free, data-driven notion of anomaly distance through the so-called variance norm, which can naturally be estimated using empirical measures of a sample. Our framework generalizes the classical $\bbR^d$, functional $(L^2[0,1])^d$, and kernelized settings; importantly, it incorporates non-injective covariance operators. We prove that the variance norm is invariant under invertible bounded linear transformations of the data, extending previous results which are limited to unitary operators. In the Hilbert space setting, we connect the variance norm to the RKHS of the covariance operator, and establish consistency and convergence results for estimation using empirical measures with Tikhonov regularization. Using the variance norm, we introduce the notion of a kernelized nearest-neighbour Mahalanobis distance, and study some of its finite-sample concentration properties. In an empirical study on 12 real-world data sets, we demonstrate that the kernelized nearest-neighbour Mahalanobis distance outperforms the traditional kernelized Mahalanobis distance for multivariate time series novelty detection, using state-of-the-art time series kernels such as the signature, global alignment, and Volterra reservoir kernels.

Thomas Cass, Francesco Piatti, Jeffrey Pei

Signature kernels have emerged as a powerful tool within kernel methods for sequential data. In the paper "The Signature Kernel is the solution of a Goursat PDE", the authors identify a kernel trick that demonstrates that, for continuously differentiable paths, the signature kernel satisfies a Goursat problem for a hyperbolic partial differential equation (PDE) in two independent time variables. While finite difference methods have been explored for this PDE, they face limitations in accuracy and stability when handling highly oscillatory inputs. In this work, we introduce two advanced numerical schemes that leverage polynomial representations of boundary conditions through either approximation or interpolation techniques, and rigorously establish the theoretical convergence of the polynomial approximation scheme. Experimental evaluations reveal that our approaches yield improvements of several orders of magnitude in mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) compared to traditional finite difference schemes, without increasing computational complexity. Furthermore, like finite difference methods, our algorithms can be GPU-parallelized to reduce computational complexity from quadratic to linear in the length of the input sequences, thereby improving scalability for high-frequency data. We have implemented these algorithms in a dedicated Python library, which is publicly available at: https://github.com/FrancescoPiatti/polysigkernel.

Cristopher Salvi, Thomas Cass, James Foster et al.

Recently, there has been an increased interest in the development of kernel methods for learning with sequential data. The signature kernel is a learning tool with potential to handle irregularly sampled, multivariate time series. In "Kernels for sequentially ordered data" the authors introduced a kernel trick for the truncated version of this kernel avoiding the exponential complexity that would have been involved in a direct computation. Here we show that for continuously differentiable paths, the signature kernel solves a hyperbolic PDE and recognize the connection with a well known class of differential equations known in the literature as Goursat problems. This Goursat PDE only depends on the increments of the input sequences, does not require the explicit computation of signatures and can be solved efficiently using state-of-the-arthyperbolic PDE numerical solvers, giving a kernel trick for the untruncated signature kernel, with the same raw complexity as the method from "Kernels for sequentially ordered data", but with the advantage that the PDE numerical scheme is well suited for GPU parallelization, which effectively reduces the complexity by a full order of magnitude in the length of the input sequences. In addition, we extend the previous analysis to the space of geometric rough paths and establish, using classical results from rough path theory, that the rough version of the signature kernel solves a rough integral equation analogous to the aforementioned Goursat PDE. Finally, we empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our PDE kernel as a machine learning tool in various machine learning applications dealing with sequential data. We release the library sigkernel publicly available at https://github.com/crispitagorico/sigkernel.

Thomas Cass, Dan Crisan, Andrea Iannucci et al.

We develop a rough-path framework for two-parameter rough differential equations on rectangular and simplicial domains, motivated by the signature kernel and Schwinger--Dyson kernel equations. The theory is formulated in spaces of jointly controlled rough paths and is based on a robust two-parameter rough integration framework. In particular, we introduce a notion of rough integration over two-dimensional simplices at low regularity extending previous results in the literature. Within this setting, we show that the signature kernel equation arises naturally as a two-parameter rough differential equation and establish well-posedness and stability. We also extend the Schwinger--Dyson kernel equation, previously formulated for bounded-variation paths, to rough driving signals, proving existence and uniqueness in appropriate controlled rough path spaces. In the smooth rough path regime, we relate the resulting equations to PDE and integro-differential formulations. Finally, we derive and analyse a numerical scheme for the rough Schwinger--Dyson equation, including runtime and memory complexity estimates, and illustrate its performance with numerical experiments.

Francesco Piatti, Thomas Cass, William F. Turner

We introduce a training-efficient framework for time-series learning that combines random features with controlled differential equations (CDEs). In this approach, large randomly parameterized CDEs act as continuous-time reservoirs, mapping input paths to rich representations. Only a linear readout layer is trained, resulting in fast, scalable models with strong inductive bias. Building on this foundation, we propose two variants: (i) Random Fourier CDEs (RF-CDEs): these lift the input signal using random Fourier features prior to the dynamics, providing a kernel-free approximation of RBF-enhanced sequence models; (ii) Random Rough DEs (R-RDEs): these operate directly on rough-path inputs via a log-ODE discretization, using log-signatures to capture higher-order temporal interactions while remaining stable and efficient. We prove that in the infinite-width limit, these model induces the RBF-lifted signature kernel and the rough signature kernel, respectively, offering a unified perspective on random-feature reservoirs, continuous-time deep architectures, and path-signature theory. We evaluate both models across a range of time-series benchmarks, demonstrating competitive or state-of-the-art performance. These methods provide a practical alternative to explicit signature computations, retaining their inductive bias while benefiting from the efficiency of random features.

Thomas Cass, Cristopher Salvi

These notes expound the recent use of the signature transform and rough path theory in data science and machine learning. We develop the core theory of the signature from first principles and then survey some recent popular applications of this approach, including signature-based kernel methods and neural rough differential equations. The notes are based on a course given by the two authors at Imperial College London.

Paola Arrubarrena, Maud Lemercier, Bojan Nikolic et al. · oxford

We introduce SigNova, a new semi-supervised framework for detecting anomalies in streamed data. While our initial examples focus on detecting radio-frequency interference (RFI) in digitized signals within the field of radio astronomy, it is important to note that SigNova's applicability extends to any type of streamed data. The framework comprises three primary components. Firstly, we use the signature transform to extract a canonical collection of summary statistics from observational sequences. This allows us to represent variable-length visibility samples as finite-dimensional feature vectors. Secondly, each feature vector is assigned a novelty score, calculated as the Mahalanobis distance to its nearest neighbor in an RFI-free training set. By thresholding these scores we identify observation ranges that deviate from the expected behavior of RFI-free visibility samples without relying on stringent distributional assumptions. Thirdly, we integrate this anomaly detector with Pysegments, a segmentation algorithm, to localize consecutive observations contaminated with RFI, if any. This approach provides a compelling alternative to classical windowing techniques commonly used for RFI detection. Importantly, the complexity of our algorithm depends on the RFI pattern rather than on the size of the observation window. We demonstrate how SigNova improves the detection of various types of RFI (e.g., broadband and narrowband) in time-frequency visibility data. We validate our framework on the Murchison Widefield Array (MWA) telescope and simulated data and the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array (HERA).

Nikita Zozoulenko, Thomas Cass, Lukas Gonon

We introduce Random Feature Representation Boosting (RFRBoost), a novel method for constructing deep residual random feature neural networks (RFNNs) using boosting theory. RFRBoost uses random features at each layer to learn the functional gradient of the network representation, enhancing performance while preserving the convex optimization benefits of RFNNs. In the case of MSE loss, we obtain closed-form solutions to greedy layer-wise boosting with random features. For general loss functions, we show that fitting random feature residual blocks reduces to solving a quadratically constrained least squares problem. Through extensive numerical experiments on tabular datasets for both regression and classification, we show that RFRBoost significantly outperforms RFNNs and end-to-end trained MLP ResNets in the small- to medium-scale regime where RFNNs are typically applied. Moreover, RFRBoost offers substantial computational benefits, and theoretical guarantees stemming from boosting theory.

Maud Lemercier, Cristopher Salvi, Thomas Cass et al.

Making predictions and quantifying their uncertainty when the input data is sequential is a fundamental learning challenge, recently attracting increasing attention. We develop SigGPDE, a new scalable sparse variational inference framework for Gaussian Processes (GPs) on sequential data. Our contribution is twofold. First, we construct inducing variables underpinning the sparse approximation so that the resulting evidence lower bound (ELBO) does not require any matrix inversion. Second, we show that the gradients of the GP signature kernel are solutions of a hyperbolic partial differential equation (PDE). This theoretical insight allows us to build an efficient back-propagation algorithm to optimize the ELBO. We showcase the significant computational gains of SigGPDE compared to existing methods, while achieving state-of-the-art performance for classification tasks on large datasets of up to 1 million multivariate time series.