Philipp M. Faller

Philipp M. Faller, Leena Chennuru Vankadara, Atalanti A. Mastakouri et al.

As causal ground truth is incredibly rare, causal discovery algorithms are commonly only evaluated on simulated data. This is concerning, given that simulations reflect preconceptions about generating processes regarding noise distributions, model classes, and more. In this work, we propose a novel method for falsifying the output of a causal discovery algorithm in the absence of ground truth. Our key insight is that while statistical learning seeks stability across subsets of data points, causal learning should seek stability across subsets of variables. Motivated by this insight, our method relies on a notion of compatibility between causal graphs learned on different subsets of variables. We prove that detecting incompatibilities can falsify wrongly inferred causal relations due to violation of assumptions or errors from finite sample effects. Although passing such compatibility tests is only a necessary criterion for good performance, we argue that it provides strong evidence for the causal models whenever compatibility entails strong implications for the joint distribution. We also demonstrate experimentally that detection of incompatibilities can aid in causal model selection.

Francesco Montagna, Philipp M. Faller, Patrick Bloebaum et al.

Causal discovery from observational data holds great promise, but existing methods rely on strong assumptions about the underlying causal structure, often requiring full observability of all relevant variables. We tackle these challenges by leveraging the score function $\nabla \log p(X)$ of observed variables for causal discovery and propose the following contributions. First, we fine-tune the existing identifiability results with the score on additive noise models, showing that their assumption of nonlinearity of the causal mechanisms is not necessary. Second, we establish conditions for inferring causal relations from the score even in the presence of hidden variables; this result is two-faced: we demonstrate the score's potential to infer the equivalence class of causal graphs with hidden variables (while previous results are restricted to the fully observable setting), and we provide sufficient conditions for identifying direct causes in latent variable models. Building on these insights, we propose a flexible algorithm suited for causal discovery on linear, nonlinear, and latent variable models, which we empirically validate.

Dominik Janzing, Patrick Blöbaum, Atalanti A. Mastakouri et al.

We propose a notion of causal influence that describes the `intrinsic' part of the contribution of a node on a target node in a DAG. By recursively writing each node as a function of the upstream noise terms, we separate the intrinsic information added by each node from the one obtained from its ancestors. To interpret the intrinsic information as a {\it causal} contribution, we consider `structure-preserving interventions' that randomize each node in a way that mimics the usual dependence on the parents and does not perturb the observed joint distribution. To get a measure that is invariant with respect to relabelling nodes we use Shapley based symmetrization and show that it reduces in the linear case to simple ANOVA after resolving the target node into noise variables. We describe our contribution analysis for variance and entropy, but contributions for other target metrics can be defined analogously. The code is available in the package gcm of the open source library DoWhy.

Philipp M. Faller, Dominik Janzing

Conditional-independence-based discovery uses statistical tests to identify a graphical model that represents the independence structure of variables in a dataset. These tests, however, can be unreliable, and algorithms are sensitive to errors and violated assumptions. Often, there are tests that were not used in the construction of the graph. In this work, we show that these redundant tests have the potential to detect or sometimes correct errors in the learned model. But we further show that not all tests contain this additional information and that such redundant tests have to be applied with care. Precisely, we argue that the conditional (in)dependence statements that hold for every probability distribution are unlikely to detect and correct errors - in contrast to those that follow only from graphical assumptions.

Dominik Janzing, Philipp M. Faller, Leena Chennuru Vankadara

If $X,Y,Z$ denote sets of random variables, two different data sources may contain samples from $P_{X,Y}$ and $P_{Y,Z}$, respectively. We argue that causal discovery can help inferring properties of the `unobserved joint distributions' $P_{X,Y,Z}$ or $P_{X,Z}$. The properties may be conditional independences (as in `integrative causal inference') or also quantitative statements about dependences. More generally, we define a learning scenario where the input is a subset of variables and the label is some statistical property of that subset. Sets of jointly observed variables define the training points, while unobserved sets are possible test points. To solve this learning task, we infer, as an intermediate step, a causal model from the observations that then entails properties of unobserved sets. Accordingly, we can define the VC dimension of a class of causal models and derive generalization bounds for the predictions. Here, causal discovery becomes more modest and better accessible to empirical tests than usual: rather than trying to find a causal hypothesis that is `true' a causal hypothesis is {\it useful} whenever it correctly predicts statistical properties of unobserved joint distributions. This way, a sparse causal graph that omits weak influences may be more useful than a dense one (despite being less accurate) because it is able to reconstruct the full joint distribution from marginal distributions of smaller subsets. Within such a `pragmatic' application of causal discovery, some popular heuristic approaches become justified in retrospect. It is, for instance, allowed to infer DAGs from partial correlations instead of conditional independences if the DAGs are only used to predict partial correlations.