Elizaveta Semenova

Elizaveta Semenova, Prakhar Verma, Max Cairney-Leeming et al. · oxford

Recent advances have shown that GP priors, or their finite realisations, can be encoded using deep generative models such as variational autoencoders (VAEs). These learned generators can serve as drop-in replacements for the original priors during MCMC inference. While this approach enables efficient inference, it loses information about the hyperparameters of the original models, and consequently makes inference over hyperparameters impossible and the learned priors indistinct. To overcome this limitation, we condition the VAE on stochastic process hyperparameters. This allows the joint encoding of hyperparameters with GP realizations and their subsequent estimation during inference. Further, we demonstrate that our proposed method, PriorCVAE, is agnostic to the nature of the models which it approximates, and can be used, for instance, to encode solutions of ODEs. It provides a practical tool for approximate inference and shows potential in real-life spatial and spatiotemporal applications.

Shreyansh Padarha, Ryan Othniel Kearns, Tristan Naidoo et al.

Systematic literature reviews are essential for synthesizing scientific evidence but are costly, difficult to scale and time-intensive, creating bottlenecks for evidence-based policy. We study whether large language models can automate the complete systematic review workflow, from article retrieval, article screening, data extraction to report synthesis. Applied to epidemiological reviews of nine WHO-designated priority pathogens and validated against expert-curated ground truth, our open-source agentic pipeline (AgentSLR) achieves performance comparable to human researchers while reducing review time from approximately 7 weeks to 20 hours (a 58x speed-up). Our comparison of five frontier models reveals that performance on SLR is driven less by model size or inference cost than by each model's distinctive capabilities. Through human-in-the-loop validation, we identify key failure modes. Our results demonstrate that agentic AI can substantially accelerate scientific evidence synthesis in specialised domains.

Elizaveta Semenova, Swapnil Mishra, Samir Bhatt et al.

Model-based disease mapping remains a fundamental policy-informing tool in the fields of public health and disease surveillance. Hierarchical Bayesian models have emerged as the state-of-the-art approach for disease mapping since they are able to both capture structure in the data and robustly characterise uncertainty. When working with areal data, e.g.~aggregates at the administrative unit level such as district or province, current models rely on the adjacency structure of areal units to account for spatial correlations and perform shrinkage. The goal of disease surveillance systems is to track disease outcomes over time. This task is especially challenging in crisis situations which often lead to redrawn administrative boundaries, meaning that data collected before and after the crisis are no longer directly comparable. Moreover, the adjacency-based approach ignores the continuous nature of spatial processes and cannot solve the change-of-support problem, i.e.~when estimates are required to be produced at different administrative levels or levels of aggregation. We present a novel, practical, and easy to implement solution to solve these problems relying on a methodology combining deep generative modelling and fully Bayesian inference: we build on the recently proposed PriorVAE method able to encode spatial priors over small areas with variational autoencoders by encoding aggregates over administrative units. We map malaria prevalence in Kenya, a country in which administrative boundaries changed in 2010.