David C. Parkes

Peter Stone, Rodney Brooks, Erik Brynjolfsson et al.

In September 2016, Stanford's "One Hundred Year Study on Artificial Intelligence" project (AI100) issued the first report of its planned long-term periodic assessment of artificial intelligence (AI) and its impact on society. It was written by a panel of 17 study authors, each of whom is deeply rooted in AI research, chaired by Peter Stone of the University of Texas at Austin. The report, entitled "Artificial Intelligence and Life in 2030," examines eight domains of typical urban settings on which AI is likely to have impact over the coming years: transportation, home and service robots, healthcare, education, public safety and security, low-resource communities, employment and workplace, and entertainment. It aims to provide the general public with a scientifically and technologically accurate portrayal of the current state of AI and its potential and to help guide decisions in industry and governments, as well as to inform research and development in the field. The charge for this report was given to the panel by the AI100 Standing Committee, chaired by Barbara Grosz of Harvard University.

Jamelle Watson-Daniels, David C. Parkes, Berk Ustun

Machine learning models are often used to inform real world risk assessment tasks: predicting consumer default risk, predicting whether a person suffers from a serious illness, or predicting a person's risk to appear in court. Given multiple models that perform almost equally well for a prediction task, to what extent do predictions vary across these models? If predictions are relatively consistent for similar models, then the standard approach of choosing the model that optimizes a penalized loss suffices. But what if predictions vary significantly for similar models? In machine learning, this is referred to as predictive multiplicity i.e. the prevalence of conflicting predictions assigned by near-optimal competing models. In this paper, we present a framework for measuring predictive multiplicity in probabilistic classification (predicting the probability of a positive outcome). We introduce measures that capture the variation in risk estimates over the set of competing models, and develop optimization-based methods to compute these measures efficiently and reliably for convex empirical risk minimization problems. We demonstrate the incidence and prevalence of predictive multiplicity in real-world tasks. Further, we provide insight into how predictive multiplicity arises by analyzing the relationship between predictive multiplicity and data set characteristics (outliers, separability, and majority-minority structure). Our results emphasize the need to report predictive multiplicity more widely.

Tonghan Wang, Paul Dütting, Dmitry Ivanov et al. · harvard, tsinghua

Contract design involves a principal who establishes contractual agreements about payments for outcomes that arise from the actions of an agent. In this paper, we initiate the study of deep learning for the automated design of optimal contracts. We introduce a novel representation: the Discontinuous ReLU (DeLU) network, which models the principal's utility as a discontinuous piecewise affine function of the design of a contract where each piece corresponds to the agent taking a particular action. DeLU networks implicitly learn closed-form expressions for the incentive compatibility constraints of the agent and the utility maximization objective of the principal, and support parallel inference on each piece through linear programming or interior-point methods that solve for optimal contracts. We provide empirical results that demonstrate success in approximating the principal's utility function with a small number of training samples and scaling to find approximately optimal contracts on problems with a large number of actions and outcomes.

Dima Ivanov, Paul Dütting, Inbal Talgam-Cohen et al. · harvard, tsinghua

The increasing deployment of AI is shaping the future landscape of the internet, which is set to become an integrated ecosystem of AI agents. Orchestrating the interaction among AI agents necessitates decentralized, self-sustaining mechanisms that harmonize the tension between individual interests and social welfare. In this paper we tackle this challenge by synergizing reinforcement learning with principal-agent theory from economics. Taken separately, the former allows unrealistic freedom of intervention, while the latter struggles to scale in sequential settings. Combining them achieves the best of both worlds. We propose a framework where a principal guides an agent in a Markov Decision Process (MDP) using a series of contracts, which specify payments by the principal based on observable outcomes of the agent's actions. We present and analyze a meta-algorithm that iteratively optimizes the policies of the principal and agent, showing its equivalence to a contraction operator on the principal's Q-function, and its convergence to subgame-perfect equilibrium. We then scale our algorithm with deep Q-learning and analyze its convergence in the presence of approximation error, both theoretically and through experiments with randomly generated binary game-trees. Extending our framework to multiple agents, we apply our methodology to the combinatorial Coin Game. Addressing this multi-agent sequential social dilemma is a promising first step toward scaling our approach to more complex, real-world instances.

Zhun Deng, He Sun, Zhiwei Steven Wu et al.

AI methods are used in societally important settings, ranging from credit to employment to housing, and it is crucial to provide fairness in regard to algorithmic decision making. Moreover, many settings are dynamic, with populations responding to sequential decision policies. We introduce the study of reinforcement learning (RL) with stepwise fairness constraints, requiring group fairness at each time step. Our focus is on tabular episodic RL, and we provide learning algorithms with strong theoretical guarantees in regard to policy optimality and fairness violation. Our framework provides useful tools to study the impact of fairness constraints in sequential settings and brings up new challenges in RL.

Sai Srivatsa Ravindranath, Zhe Feng, Di Wang et al.

Revenue-optimal auction design is a challenging problem with significant theoretical and practical implications. Sequential auction mechanisms, known for their simplicity and strong strategyproofness guarantees, are often limited by theoretical results that are largely existential, except for certain restrictive settings. Although traditional reinforcement learning methods such as Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) and Soft Actor-Critic (SAC) are applicable in this domain, they struggle with computational demands and convergence issues when dealing with large and continuous action spaces. In light of this and recognizing that we can model transitions differentiable for our settings, we propose using a new reinforcement learning framework tailored for sequential combinatorial auctions that leverages first-order gradients. Our extensive evaluations show that our approach achieves significant improvement in revenue over both analytical baselines and standard reinforcement learning algorithms. Furthermore, we scale our approach to scenarios involving up to 50 agents and 50 items, demonstrating its applicability in complex, real-world auction settings. As such, this work advances the computational tools available for auction design and contributes to bridging the gap between theoretical results and practical implementations in sequential auction design.

Mira Finkelstein, Lucy Liu, Nitsan Levy Schlot et al.

Understanding emerging behaviors of reinforcement learning (RL) agents may be difficult since such agents are often trained in complex environments using highly complex decision making procedures. This has given rise to a variety of approaches to explainability in RL that aim to reconcile discrepancies that may arise between the behavior of an agent and the behavior that is anticipated by an observer. Most recent approaches have relied either on domain knowledge that may not always be available, on an analysis of the agent's policy, or on an analysis of specific elements of the underlying environment, typically modeled as a Markov Decision Process (MDP). Our key claim is that even if the underlying model is not fully known (e.g., the transition probabilities have not been accurately learned) or is not maintained by the agent (i.e., when using model-free methods), the model can nevertheless be exploited to automatically generate explanations. For this purpose, we suggest using formal MDP abstractions and transforms, previously used in the literature for expediting the search for optimal policies, to automatically produce explanations. Since such transforms are typically based on a symbolic representation of the environment, they can provide meaningful explanations for gaps between the anticipated and actual agent behavior. We formally define the explainability problem, suggest a class of transforms that can be used for explaining emergent behaviors, and suggest methods that enable efficient search for an explanation. We demonstrate the approach on a set of standard benchmarks.

Matthias Gerstgrasser, David C. Parkes

Stackelberg equilibria arise naturally in a range of popular learning problems, such as in security games or indirect mechanism design, and have received increasing attention in the reinforcement learning literature. We present a general framework for implementing Stackelberg equilibria search as a multi-agent RL problem, allowing a wide range of algorithmic design choices. We discuss how previous approaches can be seen as specific instantiations of this framework. As a key insight, we note that the design space allows for approaches not previously seen in the literature, for instance by leveraging multitask and meta-RL techniques for follower convergence. We propose one such approach using contextual policies, and evaluate it experimentally on both standard and novel benchmark domains, showing greatly improved sample efficiency compared to previous approaches. Finally, we explore the effect of adopting algorithm designs outside the borders of our framework.

Omer Nahum, Gali Noti, David Parkes et al.

Congestion is a common failure mode of markets, where consumers compete inefficiently on the same subset of goods (e.g., chasing the same small set of properties on a vacation rental platform). The typical economic story is that prices decongest by balancing supply and demand. But in modern online marketplaces, prices are typically set in a decentralized way by sellers, and the information about items is inevitably partial. The power of a platform is limited to controlling representations -- the subset of information about items presented by default to users. This motivates the present study of decongestion by representation, where a platform seeks to learn representations that reduce congestion and thus improve social welfare. The technical challenge is twofold: relying only on revealed preferences from the choices of consumers, rather than true preferences; and the combinatorial problem associated with representations that determine the features to reveal in the default view. We tackle both challenges by proposing a differentiable proxy of welfare that can be trained end-to-end on consumer choice data. We develop sufficient conditions for when decongestion promotes welfare, and present the results of extensive experiments on both synthetic and real data that demonstrate the utility of our approach.

Sai Srivatsa Ravindranath, Yanchen Jiang, David C. Parkes

The $\textit{data market design}$ problem is a problem in economic theory to find a set of signaling schemes (statistical experiments) to maximize expected revenue to the information seller, where each experiment reveals some of the information known to a seller and has a corresponding price [Bergemann et al., 2018]. Each buyer has their own decision to make in a world environment, and their subjective expected value for the information associated with a particular experiment comes from the improvement in this decision and depends on their prior and value for different outcomes. In a setting with multiple buyers, a buyer's expected value for an experiment may also depend on the information sold to others [Bonatti et al., 2022]. We introduce the application of deep learning for the design of revenue-optimal data markets, looking to expand the frontiers of what can be understood and achieved. Relative to earlier work on deep learning for auction design [Dütting et al., 2023], we must learn signaling schemes rather than allocation rules and handle $\textit{obedience constraints}$ $-$ these arising from modeling the downstream actions of buyers $-$ in addition to incentive constraints on bids. Our experiments demonstrate that this new deep learning framework can almost precisely replicate all known solutions from theory, expand to more complex settings, and be used to establish the optimality of new designs for data markets and make conjectures in regard to the structure of optimal designs.

Hugh Zhang, David C. Parkes

Large language models have astounded the world with fascinating new capabilities. However, they currently lack the ability to teach themselves new skills, relying instead on large amounts of human-generated training data. We introduce SECToR (Self-Education via Chain-of-Thought Reasoning), a proof-of-concept demonstration that language models can teach themselves new skills using chain-of-thought reasoning. During the self-learning loop, SECToR asks models to solve addition problems using chain-of-thought reasoning before training the next version of the model to solve those same problems directly without using such reasoning. This process often results in an improved model which can, when again augmented with chain-of-thought reasoning, solve even harder problems than the original model, allowing the self-learning loop to continue. Language models trained via SECToR autonomously learn to add up to the longest-length-digit numbers without access to any ground truth examples beyond an initial supervised fine-tuning phase consisting only of numbers with 6 or fewer digits. Our central hypothesis is that chain-of-thought reasoning can act as a policy improvement operator, similarly to how Monte-Carlo Tree Search is used in AlphaZero (Silver et al., 2017). We hope that this research can lead to new directions in which language models can learn to teach themselves without the need for human demonstrations.

Lewis Hammond, Alan Chan, Jesse Clifton et al. · stanford

The rapid development of advanced AI agents and the imminent deployment of many instances of these agents will give rise to multi-agent systems of unprecedented complexity. These systems pose novel and under-explored risks. In this report, we provide a structured taxonomy of these risks by identifying three key failure modes (miscoordination, conflict, and collusion) based on agents' incentives, as well as seven key risk factors (information asymmetries, network effects, selection pressures, destabilising dynamics, commitment problems, emergent agency, and multi-agent security) that can underpin them. We highlight several important instances of each risk, as well as promising directions to help mitigate them. By anchoring our analysis in a range of real-world examples and experimental evidence, we illustrate the distinct challenges posed by multi-agent systems and their implications for the safety, governance, and ethics of advanced AI.

Safwan Hossain, Tonghan Wang, Tao Lin et al. · harvard, tsinghua

We consider the multi-sender persuasion problem: multiple players with informational advantage signal to convince a single self-interested actor to take certain actions. This problem generalizes the seminal Bayesian Persuasion framework and is ubiquitous in computational economics, multi-agent learning, and multi-objective machine learning. The core solution concept here is the Nash equilibrium of senders' signaling policies. Theoretically, we prove that finding an equilibrium in general is PPAD-Hard; in fact, even computing a sender's best response is NP-Hard. Given these intrinsic difficulties, we turn to finding local Nash equilibria. We propose a novel differentiable neural network to approximate this game's non-linear and discontinuous utilities. Complementing this with the extra-gradient algorithm, we discover local equilibria that Pareto dominates full-revelation equilibria and those found by existing neural networks. Broadly, our theoretical and empirical contributions are of interest to a large class of economic problems.

Jamelle Watson-Daniels, Flavio du Pin Calmon, Alexander D'Amour et al.

Issues can arise when research focused on fairness, transparency, or safety is conducted separately from research driven by practical deployment concerns and vice versa. This separation creates a growing need for translational work that bridges the gap between independently studied concepts that may be fundamentally related. This paper explores connections between two seemingly unrelated concepts of predictive inconsistency that share intriguing parallels. The first, known as predictive multiplicity, occurs when models that perform similarly (e.g., nearly equivalent training loss) produce conflicting predictions for individual samples. This concept is often emphasized in algorithmic fairness research as a means of promoting transparency in ML model development. The second concept, predictive churn, examines the differences in individual predictions before and after model updates, a key challenge in deploying ML models in consumer-facing applications. We present theoretical and empirical results that uncover links between these previously disconnected concepts.

Edwin Zhang, Sadie Zhao, Tonghan Wang et al. · harvard, tsinghua

Artificial Intelligence (AI) holds promise as a technology that can be used to improve government and economic policy-making. This paper proposes a new research agenda towards this end by introducing Social Environment Design, a general framework for the use of AI for automated policy-making that connects with the Reinforcement Learning, EconCS, and Computational Social Choice communities. The framework seeks to capture general economic environments, includes voting on policy objectives, and gives a direction for the systematic analysis of government and economic policy through AI simulation. We highlight key open problems for future research in AI-based policy-making. By solving these challenges, we hope to achieve various social welfare objectives, thereby promoting more ethical and responsible decision making.

Ermis Soumalias, Yanchen Jiang, Kehang Zhu et al.

We study the potential of large language models (LLMs) as proxies for humans to simplify preference elicitation (PE) in combinatorial assignment. While traditional PE methods rely on iterative queries to capture preferences, LLMs offer a one-shot alternative with reduced human effort. We propose a framework for LLM proxies that can work in tandem with SOTA ML-powered preference elicitation schemes. Our framework handles the novel challenges introduced by LLMs, such as response variability and increased computational costs. We experimentally evaluate the efficiency of LLM proxies against human queries in the well-studied course allocation domain, and we investigate the model capabilities required for success. We find that our approach improves allocative efficiency by up to 20%, and these results are robust across different LLMs and to differences in quality and accuracy of reporting.

Tonghan Wang, Heng Dong, Yanchen Jiang et al. · harvard, tsinghua

Multiagent systems grapple with partial observability (PO), and the decentralized POMDP (Dec-POMDP) model highlights the fundamental nature of this challenge. Whereas recent approaches to addressing PO have appealed to deep learning models, providing a rigorous understanding of how these models and their approximation errors affect agents' handling of PO and their interactions remain a challenge. In addressing this challenge, we investigate reconstructing global states from local action-observation histories in Dec-POMDPs using diffusion models. We first find that diffusion models conditioned on local history represent possible states as stable fixed points. In collectively observable (CO) Dec-POMDPs, individual diffusion models conditioned on agents' local histories share a unique fixed point corresponding to the global state, while in non-CO settings, shared fixed points yield a distribution of possible states given joint history. We further find that, with deep learning approximation errors, fixed points can deviate from true states and the deviation is negatively correlated to the Jacobian rank. Inspired by this low-rank property, we bound a deviation by constructing a surrogate linear regression model that approximates the local behavior of a diffusion model. With this bound, we propose a \emph{composite diffusion process} iterating over agents with theoretical convergence guarantees to the true state.

Michael J. Curry, Zhou Fan, David C. Parkes

The role of a market maker is to simultaneously offer to buy and sell quantities of goods, often a financial asset such as a share, at specified prices. An automated market maker (AMM) is a mechanism that offers to trade according to some predetermined schedule; the best choice of this schedule depends on the market maker's goals. The literature on the design of AMMs has mainly focused on prediction markets with the goal of information elicitation. More recent work motivated by DeFi has focused instead on the goal of profit maximization, but considering only a single type of good (traded with a numeraire), including under adverse selection (Milionis et al. 2022). Optimal market making in the presence of multiple goods, including the possibility of complex bundling behavior, is not well understood. In this paper, we show that finding an optimal market maker is dual to an optimal transport problem, with specific geometric constraints on the transport plan in the dual. We show that optimal mechanisms for multiple goods and under adverse selection can take advantage of bundling, both improved prices for bundled purchases and sales as well as sometimes accepting payment "in kind." We present conjectures of optimal mechanisms in additional settings which show further complex behavior. From a methodological perspective, we make essential use of the tools of differentiable economics to generate conjectures of optimal mechanisms, and give a proof-of-concept for the use of such tools in guiding theoretical investigations.

Gerson Personnat, Tao Lin, Safwan Hossain et al.

In a multi-follower Bayesian Stackelberg game, a leader plays a mixed strategy over $L$ actions to which $n\ge 1$ followers, each having one of $K$ possible private types, best respond. The leader's optimal strategy depends on the distribution of the followers' private types. We study an online learning version of this problem: a leader interacts for $T$ rounds with $n$ followers with types sampled from an unknown distribution every round. The leader's goal is to minimize regret, defined as the difference between the cumulative utility of the optimal strategy and that of the actually chosen strategies. We design learning algorithms for the leader under different feedback settings. Under type feedback, where the leader observes the followers' types after each round, we design algorithms that achieve $\mathcal O\big(\sqrt{\min\{L\log(nKA T), nK \} \cdot T} \big)$ regret for independent type distributions and $\mathcal O\big(\sqrt{\min\{L\log(nKA T), K^n \} \cdot T} \big)$ regret for general type distributions. Interestingly, those bounds do not grow with $n$ at a polynomial rate. Under action feedback, where the leader only observes the followers' actions, we design algorithms with $\mathcal O( \min\{\sqrt{ n^L K^L A^{2L} L T \log T}, K^n\sqrt{ T } \log T \} )$ regret. We also provide a lower bound of $Ω(\sqrt{\min\{L, nK\}T})$, almost matching the type-feedback upper bounds.

Tonghan Wang, Yanchen Jiang, David C. Parkes

Automated mechanism design (AMD) uses computational methods for mechanism design. Differentiable economics is a form of AMD that uses deep learning to learn mechanism designs and has enabled strong progress in AMD in recent years. Nevertheless, a major open problem has been to learn multi-bidder, general, and fully strategy-proof (SP) auctions. We introduce GEneral Menu-based NETwork (GemNet), which significantly extends the menu-based approach of the single-bidder RochetNet (Dütting et al., 2024) to the multi-bidder setting. The challenge in achieving SP is to learn bidder-independent menus that are feasible, so that the optimal menu choices for each bidder do not over-allocate items when taken together (we call this menu compatibility). GemNet penalizes the failure of menu compatibility during training, and transforms learned menus after training through price changes, by considering a set of discretized bidder values and reasoning about Lipschitz smoothness to guarantee menu compatibility on the entire value space. This approach is general, leaving trained menus that already satisfy menu compatibility undisturbed and reducing to RochetNet for a single bidder. Mixed-integer linear programs are used for menu transforms, and through a number of optimizations enabled by deep learning, including adaptive grids and methods to skip menu elements, we scale to large auction design problems. GemNet learns auctions with better revenue than affine maximization methods, achieves exact SP whereas previous general multi-bidder methods are approximately SP, and offers greatly enhanced interpretability.

Luca D'Amico-Wong, Hugh Zhang, Marc Lanctot et al.

We propose ABCs (Adaptive Branching through Child stationarity), a best-of-both-worlds algorithm combining Boltzmann Q-learning (BQL), a classic reinforcement learning algorithm for single-agent domains, and counterfactual regret minimization (CFR), a central algorithm for learning in multi-agent domains. ABCs adaptively chooses what fraction of the environment to explore each iteration by measuring the stationarity of the environment's reward and transition dynamics. In Markov decision processes, ABCs converges to the optimal policy with at most an O(A) factor slowdown compared to BQL, where A is the number of actions in the environment. In two-player zero-sum games, ABCs is guaranteed to converge to a Nash equilibrium (assuming access to a perfect oracle for detecting stationarity), while BQL has no such guarantees. Empirically, ABCs demonstrates strong performance when benchmarked across environments drawn from the OpenSpiel game library and OpenAI Gym and exceeds all prior methods in environments which are neither fully stationary nor fully nonstationary.

Sara Fish, Paul Gölz, David C. Parkes et al.

The mathematical study of voting, social choice theory, has traditionally only been applicable to choices among a few predetermined alternatives, but not to open-ended decisions such as collectively selecting a textual statement. We introduce generative social choice, a design methodology for open-ended democratic processes that combines the rigor of social choice theory with the capability of large language models to generate text and extrapolate preferences. Our framework divides the design of AI-augmented democratic processes into two components: first, proving that the process satisfies representation guarantees when given access to oracle queries; second, empirically validating that these queries can be approximately implemented using a large language model. We apply this framework to the problem of summarizing free-form opinions into a proportionally representative slate of opinion statements; specifically, we develop a democratic process with representation guarantees and use this process to portray the opinions of participants in a survey about abortion policy. In a trial with 100 representative US residents, we find that 84 out of 100 participants feel "excellently" or "exceptionally" represented by the slate of five statements we extracted.

Gianluca Brero, Nicolas Lepore, Eric Mibuari et al.

Algorithmic pricing on online e-commerce platforms raises the concern of tacit collusion, where reinforcement learning algorithms learn to set collusive prices in a decentralized manner and through nothing more than profit feedback. This raises the question as to whether collusive pricing can be prevented through the design of suitable "buy boxes," i.e., through the design of the rules that govern the elements of e-commerce sites that promote particular products and prices to consumers. In this paper, we demonstrate that reinforcement learning (RL) can also be used by platforms to learn buy box rules that are effective in preventing collusion by RL sellers. For this, we adopt the methodology of Stackelberg POMDPs, and demonstrate success in learning robust rules that continue to provide high consumer welfare together with sellers employing different behavior models or having out-of-distribution costs for goods.

Stephan Zheng, Alexander Trott, Sunil Srinivasa et al.

AI and reinforcement learning (RL) have improved many areas, but are not yet widely adopted in economic policy design, mechanism design, or economics at large. At the same time, current economic methodology is limited by a lack of counterfactual data, simplistic behavioral models, and limited opportunities to experiment with policies and evaluate behavioral responses. Here we show that machine-learning-based economic simulation is a powerful policy and mechanism design framework to overcome these limitations. The AI Economist is a two-level, deep RL framework that trains both agents and a social planner who co-adapt, providing a tractable solution to the highly unstable and novel two-level RL challenge. From a simple specification of an economy, we learn rational agent behaviors that adapt to learned planner policies and vice versa. We demonstrate the efficacy of the AI Economist on the problem of optimal taxation. In simple one-step economies, the AI Economist recovers the optimal tax policy of economic theory. In complex, dynamic economies, the AI Economist substantially improves both utilitarian social welfare and the trade-off between equality and productivity over baselines. It does so despite emergent tax-gaming strategies, while accounting for agent interactions and behavioral change more accurately than economic theory. These results demonstrate for the first time that two-level, deep RL can be used for understanding and as a complement to theory for economic design, unlocking a new computational learning-based approach to understanding economic policy.

Sai Srivatsa Ravindranath, Zhe Feng, Shira Li et al.

We initiate the study of deep learning for the automated design of two-sided matching mechanisms. What is of most interest is to use machine learning to understand the possibility of new tradeoffs between strategy-proofness and stability. These properties cannot be achieved simultaneously, but the efficient frontier is not understood. We introduce novel differentiable surrogates for quantifying ordinal strategy-proofness and stability and use them to train differentiable matching mechanisms that map discrete preferences to valid randomized matchings. We demonstrate that the efficient frontier characterized by these learned mechanisms is substantially better than that achievable through a convex combination of baselines of deferred acceptance (stable and strategy-proof for only one side of the market), top trading cycles (strategy-proof for one side, but not stable), and randomized serial dictatorship (strategy-proof for both sides, but not stable). This gives a new target for economic theory and opens up new possibilities for machine learning pipelines in matching market design.

Zhou Fan, Francisco Marmolejo-Cossío, Daniel J. Moroz et al.

Uniswap v3 is the largest decentralized exchange for digital currencies. A novelty of its design is that it allows a liquidity provider (LP) to allocate liquidity to one or more closed intervals of the price of an asset instead of the full range of possible prices. An LP earns fee rewards proportional to the amount of its liquidity allocation when prices move in this interval. This induces the problem of {\em strategic liquidity provision}: smaller intervals result in higher concentration of liquidity and correspondingly larger fees when the price remains in the interval, but with higher risk as prices may exit the interval leaving the LP with no fee rewards. Although reallocating liquidity to new intervals can mitigate this loss, it comes at a cost, as LPs must expend gas fees to do so. We formalize the dynamic liquidity provision problem and focus on a general class of strategies for which we provide a neural network-based optimization framework for maximizing LP earnings. We model a single LP that faces an exogenous sequence of price changes that arise from arbitrage and non-arbitrage trades in the decentralized exchange. We present experimental results informed by historical price data that demonstrate large improvements in LP earnings over existing allocation strategy baselines. Moreover we provide insight into qualitative differences in optimal LP behaviour in different economic environments.

Matheus V. X. Ferreira, Daniel J. Moroz, David C. Parkes et al.

In recent years, prominent blockchain systems such as Bitcoin and Ethereum have experienced explosive growth in transaction volume, leading to frequent surges in demand for limited block space and causing transaction fees to fluctuate by orders of magnitude. Existing systems sell space using first-price auctions; however, users find it difficult to estimate how much they need to bid in order to get their transactions accepted onto the chain. If they bid too low, their transactions can have long confirmation times. If they bid too high, they pay larger fees than necessary. In light of these issues, new transaction fee mechanisms have been proposed, most notably EIP-1559, aiming to provide better usability. EIP-1559 is a history-dependent mechanism that relies on block utilization to adjust a base fee. We propose an alternative design -- a {\em dynamic posted-price mechanism} -- which uses not only block utilization but also observable bids from past blocks to compute a posted price for subsequent blocks. We show its potential to reduce price volatility by providing examples for which the prices of EIP-1559 are unstable while the prices of the proposed mechanism are stable. More generally, whenever the demand for the blockchain stabilizes, we ask if our mechanism is able to converge to a stable state. Our main result provides sufficient conditions in a probabilistic setting for which the proposed mechanism is approximately welfare optimal and the prices are stable. Our main technical contribution towards establishing stability is an iterative algorithm that, given oracle access to a Lipschitz continuous and strictly concave function $f$, converges to a fixed point of $f$.

Michael Neuder, Daniel J. Moroz, Rithvik Rao et al.

We outline two dishonest strategies that can be cheaply executed on the Ethereum 2.0 beacon chain, even by validators holding less than one-third of the total stake: malicious chain reorganizations ("reorgs") and finality delays. In a malicious reorg, an attacker withholds their blocks and attestations before releasing them at an opportune time in order to force a chain reorganization, which they can take advantage of by double-spending or front-running transactions. To execute a finality delay an attacker uses delayed block releases and withholding of attestations to increase the mean and variance of the time it takes blocks to become finalized. This impacts the efficiency and predictability of the system. We provide a probabilistic and cost analysis for each of these attacks, considering a validator with 30% of the total stake.

Ian Foster, David Parkes, Stephan Zheng

The use of computational simulation is by now so pervasive in society that it is no exaggeration to say that continued U.S. and international prosperity, security, and health depend in part on continued improvements in simulation capabilities. What if we could predict weather two weeks out, guide the design of new drugs for new viral diseases, or manage new manufacturing processes that cut production costs and times by an order of magnitude? What if we could predict collective human behavior, for example, response to an evacuation request during a natural disaster, or labor response to fiscal stimulus? (See also the companion CCC Quad Paper on Pandemic Informatics, which discusses features that would be essential to solving large-scale problems like preparation for, and response to, the inevitable next pandemic.) The past decade has brought remarkable advances in complementary areas: in sensors, which can now capture enormous amounts of data about the world, and in AI methods capable of learning to extract predictive patterns from those data. These advances may lead to a new era in computational simulation, in which sensors of many kinds are used to produce vast quantities of data, AI methods identify patterns in those data, and new AI-driven simulators combine machine-learned and mathematical rules to make accurate and actionable predictions. At the same time, there are new challenges -- computers in some important regards are no longer getting faster, and in some areas we are reaching the limits of mathematical understanding, or at least of our ability to translate mathematical understanding into efficient simulation. In this paper, we lay out some themes that we envision forming part of a cohesive, multi-disciplinary, and application-inspired research agenda on AI-driven simulators.

Gianluca Brero, Alon Eden, Matthias Gerstgrasser et al.

We introduce the use of reinforcement learning for indirect mechanisms, working with the existing class of sequential price mechanisms, which generalizes both serial dictatorship and posted price mechanisms and essentially characterizes all strongly obviously strategyproof mechanisms. Learning an optimal mechanism within this class forms a partially-observable Markov decision process. We provide rigorous conditions for when this class of mechanisms is more powerful than simpler static mechanisms, for sufficiency or insufficiency of observation statistics for learning, and for the necessity of complex (deep) policies. We show that our approach can learn optimal or near-optimal mechanisms in several experimental settings.

He Sun, Zhun Deng, Hui Chen et al.

We introduce the decision-aware time-series conditional generative adversarial network (DAT-CGAN) as a method for time-series generation. The framework adopts a multi-Wasserstein loss on structured decision-related quantities, capturing the heterogeneity of decision-related data and providing new effectiveness in supporting the decision processes of end users. We improve sample efficiency through an overlapped block-sampling method, and provide a theoretical characterization of the generalization properties of DAT-CGAN. The framework is demonstrated on financial time series for a multi-time-step portfolio choice problem. We demonstrate better generative quality in regard to underlying data and different decision-related quantities than strong, GAN-based baselines.

Michael Neuder, Daniel J. Moroz, Rithvik Rao et al.

Blockchains are intended to be immutable, so an attacker who is able to delete transactions through a chain reorganization (a malicious reorg) can perform a profitable double-spend attack. We study the rate at which an attacker can execute reorgs in the Tezos Proof-of-Stake protocol. As an example, an attacker with 40% of the staking power is able to execute a 20-block malicious reorg at an average rate of once per day, and the attack probability increases super-linearly as the staking power grows beyond 40%. Moreover, an attacker of the Tezos protocol knows in advance when an attack opportunity will arise, and can use this knowledge to arrange transactions to double-spend. We show that in particular cases, the Tezos protocol can be adjusted to protect against deep reorgs. For instance, we demonstrate protocol parameters that reduce the rate of length-20 reorg opportunities for a 40% attacker by two orders of magnitude. We also observe a trade-off between optimizing for robustness to deep reorgs (costly deviations that may be net profitable because they enable double-spends) and robustness to selfish mining (mining deviations that result in typically short reorgs that are profitable even without double-spends). That is, the parameters that optimally protect against one make the other attack easy. Finally, we develop a method that monitors the Tezos blockchain health with respect to malicious reorgs using only publicly available information.

Nir Rosenfeld, Sophie Hilgard, Sai Srivatsa Ravindranath et al.

Machine learning is a powerful tool for predicting human-related outcomes, from credit scores to heart attack risks. But when deployed, learned models also affect how users act in order to improve outcomes, whether predicted or real. The standard approach to learning is agnostic to induced user actions and provides no guarantees as to the effect of actions. We provide a framework for learning predictors that are both accurate and promote good actions. For this, we introduce look-ahead regularization which, by anticipating user actions, encourages predictive models to also induce actions that improve outcomes. This regularization carefully tailors the uncertainty estimates governing confidence in this improvement to the distribution of model-induced actions. We report the results of experiments on real and synthetic data that show the effectiveness of this approach.

Stephan Zheng, Alexander Trott, Sunil Srinivasa et al.

Tackling real-world socio-economic challenges requires designing and testing economic policies. However, this is hard in practice, due to a lack of appropriate (micro-level) economic data and limited opportunity to experiment. In this work, we train social planners that discover tax policies in dynamic economies that can effectively trade-off economic equality and productivity. We propose a two-level deep reinforcement learning approach to learn dynamic tax policies, based on economic simulations in which both agents and a government learn and adapt. Our data-driven approach does not make use of economic modeling assumptions, and learns from observational data alone. We make four main contributions. First, we present an economic simulation environment that features competitive pressures and market dynamics. We validate the simulation by showing that baseline tax systems perform in a way that is consistent with economic theory, including in regard to learned agent behaviors and specializations. Second, we show that AI-driven tax policies improve the trade-off between equality and productivity by 16% over baseline policies, including the prominent Saez tax framework. Third, we showcase several emergent features: AI-driven tax policies are qualitatively different from baselines, setting a higher top tax rate and higher net subsidies for low incomes. Moreover, AI-driven tax policies perform strongly in the face of emergent tax-gaming strategies learned by AI agents. Lastly, AI-driven tax policies are also effective when used in experiments with human participants. In experiments conducted on MTurk, an AI tax policy provides an equality-productivity trade-off that is similar to that provided by the Saez framework along with higher inverse-income weighted social welfare.

Rose E. Wang, Sarah A. Wu, James A. Evans et al.

Collaboration requires agents to coordinate their behavior on the fly, sometimes cooperating to solve a single task together and other times dividing it up into sub-tasks to work on in parallel. Underlying the human ability to collaborate is theory-of-mind, the ability to infer the hidden mental states that drive others to act. Here, we develop Bayesian Delegation, a decentralized multi-agent learning mechanism with these abilities. Bayesian Delegation enables agents to rapidly infer the hidden intentions of others by inverse planning. We test Bayesian Delegation in a suite of multi-agent Markov decision processes inspired by cooking problems. On these tasks, agents with Bayesian Delegation coordinate both their high-level plans (e.g. what sub-task they should work on) and their low-level actions (e.g. avoiding getting in each other's way). In a self-play evaluation, Bayesian Delegation outperforms alternative algorithms. Bayesian Delegation is also a capable ad-hoc collaborator and successfully coordinates with other agent types even in the absence of prior experience. Finally, in a behavioral experiment, we show that Bayesian Delegation makes inferences similar to human observers about the intent of others. Together, these results demonstrate the power of Bayesian Delegation for decentralized multi-agent collaboration.

Daniel J. Moroz, Daniel J. Aronoff, Neha Narula et al.

Proof-of-Work mining is intended to provide blockchains with robustness against double-spend attacks. However, an economic analysis that follows from Budish (2018), which considers free entry conditions together with the ability to rent sufficient hashrate to conduct an attack, suggests that the resulting block rewards can make an attack cheap. We formalize a defense to double-spend attacks. We show that when the victim can counterattack in the same way as the attacker, this leads to a variation on the classic game-theoretic War of Attrition model. The threat of this kind of counterattack induces a subgame perfect equilibrium in which no attack occurs in the first place.

Nir Rosenfeld, Aron Szanto, David C. Parkes

Recent work in the domain of misinformation detection has leveraged rich signals in the text and user identities associated with content on social media. But text can be strategically manipulated and accounts reopened under different aliases, suggesting that these approaches are inherently brittle. In this work, we investigate an alternative modality that is naturally robust: the pattern in which information propagates. Can the veracity of an unverified rumor spreading online be discerned solely on the basis of its pattern of diffusion through the social network? Using graph kernels to extract complex topological information from Twitter cascade structures, we train accurate predictive models that are blind to language, user identities, and time, demonstrating for the first time that such "sanitized" diffusion patterns are highly informative of veracity. Our results indicate that, with proper aggregation, the collective sharing pattern of the crowd may reveal powerful signals of rumor truth or falsehood, even in the early stages of propagation.

Michael Neuder, Daniel J. Moroz, Rithvik Rao et al.

Proof-of-Stake consensus protocols give rise to complex modeling challenges. We analyze the recently-updated Tezos Proof-of-Stake protocol and demonstrate that, under certain conditions, rational participants are incentivized to behave dishonestly. In doing so, we provide a theoretical analysis of the feasibility and profitability of a block stealing attack that we call selfish endorsing, a concrete instance of an attack previously only theoretically considered. We propose and analyze a simple change to the Tezos protocol which significantly reduces the (already small) profitability of this dishonest behavior, and introduce a new delay and reward scheme that is provably secure against length-1 and length-2 selfish endorsing attacks. Our framework provides a template for analyzing other Proof-of-Stake implementations for selfish behavior.

Jack Serrino, Max Kleiman-Weiner, David C. Parkes et al.

Recent breakthroughs in AI for multi-agent games like Go, Poker, and Dota, have seen great strides in recent years. Yet none of these games address the real-life challenge of cooperation in the presence of unknown and uncertain teammates. This challenge is a key game mechanism in hidden role games. Here we develop the DeepRole algorithm, a multi-agent reinforcement learning agent that we test on The Resistance: Avalon, the most popular hidden role game. DeepRole combines counterfactual regret minimization (CFR) with deep value networks trained through self-play. Our algorithm integrates deductive reasoning into vector-form CFR to reason about joint beliefs and deduce partially observable actions. We augment deep value networks with constraints that yield interpretable representations of win probabilities. These innovations enable DeepRole to scale to the full Avalon game. Empirical game-theoretic methods show that DeepRole outperforms other hand-crafted and learned agents in five-player Avalon. DeepRole played with and against human players on the web in hybrid human-agent teams. We find that DeepRole outperforms human players as both a cooperator and a competitor.

Zhe Feng, David C. Parkes, Haifeng Xu

Motivated by economic applications such as recommender systems, we study the behavior of stochastic bandits algorithms under \emph{strategic behavior} conducted by rational actors, i.e., the arms. Each arm is a \emph{self-interested} strategic player who can modify its own reward whenever pulled, subject to a cross-period budget constraint, in order to maximize its own expected number of times of being pulled. We analyze the robustness of three popular bandit algorithms: UCB, $\varepsilon$-Greedy, and Thompson Sampling. We prove that all three algorithms achieve a regret upper bound $\mathcal{O}(\max \{ B, K\ln T\})$ where $B$ is the total budget across arms, $K$ is the total number of arms and $T$ is length of the time horizon. This regret guarantee holds under \emph{arbitrary adaptive} manipulation strategy of arms. Our second set of main results shows that this regret bound is \emph{tight} -- in fact for UCB it is tight even when we restrict the arms' manipulation strategies to form a \emph{Nash equilibrium}. The lower bound makes use of a simple manipulation strategy, the same for all three algorithms, yielding a bound of $Ω(\max \{ B, K\ln T\})$. Our results illustrate the robustness of classic bandits algorithms against strategic manipulations as long as $B=o(T)$.

Sophie Hilgard, Nir Rosenfeld, Mahzarin R. Banaji et al.

When machine predictors can achieve higher performance than the human decision-makers they support, improving the performance of human decision-makers is often conflated with improving machine accuracy. Here we propose a framework to directly support human decision-making, in which the role of machines is to reframe problems rather than to prescribe actions through prediction. Inspired by the success of representation learning in improving performance of machine predictors, our framework learns human-facing representations optimized for human performance. This "Mind Composed with Machine" framework incorporates a human decision-making model directly into the representation learning paradigm and is trained with a novel human-in-the-loop training procedure. We empirically demonstrate the successful application of the framework to various tasks and representational forms.

Debmalya Mandal, David Parkes

Marginal Structural Models (MSM) are the most popular models for causal inference from time-series observational data. However, they have two main drawbacks: (a) they do not capture subject heterogeneity, and (b) they only consider fixed time intervals and do not scale gracefully with longer intervals. In this work, we propose a new family of MSMs to address these two concerns. We model the potential outcomes as a three-dimensional tensor of low rank, where the three dimensions correspond to the agents, time periods and the set of possible histories. Unlike the traditional MSM, we allow the dimensions of the tensor to increase with the number of agents and time periods. We set up a weighted tensor completion problem as our estimation procedure, and show that the solution to this problem converges to the true model in an appropriate sense. Then we show how to solve the estimation problem, providing conditions under which we can approximately and efficiently solve the estimation problem. Finally we propose an algorithm based on projected gradient descent, which is easy to implement, and evaluate its performance on a simulated dataset.

Goran Radanovic, Rati Devidze, David C. Parkes et al.

We consider a two-agent MDP framework where agents repeatedly solve a task in a collaborative setting. We study the problem of designing a learning algorithm for the first agent (A1) that facilitates a successful collaboration even in cases when the second agent (A2) is adapting its policy in an unknown way. The key challenge in our setting is that the first agent faces non-stationarity in rewards and transitions because of the adaptive behavior of the second agent. We design novel online learning algorithms for agent A1 whose regret decays as $O(T^{\max\{1-\frac{3}{7} \cdot α, \frac{1}{4}\}})$ with $T$ learning episodes provided that the magnitude of agent A2's policy changes between any two consecutive episodes are upper bounded by $O(T^{-α})$. Here, the parameter $α$ is assumed to be strictly greater than $0$, and we show that this assumption is necessary provided that the learning parity with noise problem is computationally hard. We show that sub-linear regret of agent A1 further implies near-optimality of the agents' joint return for MDPs that manifest the properties of a smooth game.

Nripsuta Saxena, Karen Huang, Evan DeFilippis et al.

What is the best way to define algorithmic fairness? While many definitions of fairness have been proposed in the computer science literature, there is no clear agreement over a particular definition. In this work, we investigate ordinary people's perceptions of three of these fairness definitions. Across two online experiments, we test which definitions people perceive to be the fairest in the context of loan decisions, and whether fairness perceptions change with the addition of sensitive information (i.e., race of the loan applicants). Overall, one definition (calibrated fairness) tends to be more preferred than the others, and the results also provide support for the principle of affirmative action.

Haris Aziz, Hau Chan, Barton E. Lee et al.

We initiate the study of the capacity constrained facility location problem from a mechanism design perspective. The capacity constrained setting leads to a new strategic environment where a facility serves a subset of the population, which is endogenously determined by the ex-post Nash equilibrium of an induced subgame and is not directly controlled by the mechanism designer. Our focus is on mechanisms that are ex-post dominant-strategy incentive compatible (DIC) at the reporting stage. We provide a complete characterization of DIC mechanisms via the family of Generalized Median Mechanisms (GMMs). In general, the social welfare optimal mechanism is not DIC. Adopting the worst-case approximation measure, we attain tight lower bounds on the approximation ratio of any DIC mechanism. The well-known median mechanism is shown to be optimal among the family of DIC mechanisms for certain capacity ranges. Surprisingly, the framework we introduce provides a new characterization for the family of GMMs, and is responsive to gaps in the current social choice literature highlighted by Border and Jordan (1983) and Barbar{à}, Mass{ó} and Serizawa (1998).

Rediet Abebe, Jon Kleinberg, David Parkes et al.

A long line of work in social psychology has studied variations in people's susceptibility to persuasion -- the extent to which they are willing to modify their opinions on a topic. This body of literature suggests an interesting perspective on theoretical models of opinion formation by interacting parties in a network: in addition to considering interventions that directly modify people's intrinsic opinions, it is also natural to consider interventions that modify people's susceptibility to persuasion. In this work, we adopt a popular model for social opinion dynamics, and we formalize the opinion maximization and minimization problems where interventions happen at the level of susceptibility. We show that modeling interventions at the level of susceptibility lead to an interesting family of new questions in network opinion dynamics. We find that the questions are quite different depending on whether there is an overall budget constraining the number of agents we can target or not. We give a polynomial-time algorithm for finding the optimal target-set to optimize the sum of opinions when there are no budget constraints on the size of the target-set. We show that this problem is NP-hard when there is a budget, and that the objective function is neither submodular nor supermodular. Finally, we propose a heuristic for the budgeted opinion optimization and show its efficacy at finding target-sets that optimize the sum of opinions compared on real world networks, including a Twitter network with real opinion estimates.

Yang Liu, Goran Radanovic, Christos Dimitrakakis et al.

We study fairness within the stochastic, \emph{multi-armed bandit} (MAB) decision making framework. We adapt the fairness framework of "treating similar individuals similarly" to this setting. Here, an `individual' corresponds to an arm and two arms are `similar' if they have a similar quality distribution. First, we adopt a {\em smoothness constraint} that if two arms have a similar quality distribution then the probability of selecting each arm should be similar. In addition, we define the {\em fairness regret}, which corresponds to the degree to which an algorithm is not calibrated, where perfect calibration requires that the probability of selecting an arm is equal to the probability with which the arm has the best quality realization. We show that a variation on Thompson sampling satisfies smooth fairness for total variation distance, and give an $\tilde{O}((kT)^{2/3})$ bound on fairness regret. This complements prior work, which protects an on-average better arm from being less favored. We also explain how to extend our algorithm to the dueling bandit setting.

Paul Dütting, Zhe Feng, Harikrishna Narasimhan et al.

Designing an incentive compatible auction that maximizes expected revenue is an intricate task. The single-item case was resolved in a seminal piece of work by Myerson in 1981, but more than 40 years later a full analytical understanding of the optimal design still remains elusive for settings with two or more items. In this work, we initiate the exploration of the use of tools from deep learning for the automated design of optimal auctions. We model an auction as a multi-layer neural network, frame optimal auction design as a constrained learning problem, and show how it can be solved using standard machine learning pipelines. In addition to providing generalization bounds, we present extensive experimental results, recovering essentially all known solutions that come from the theoretical analysis of optimal auction design problems and obtaining novel mechanisms for settings in which the optimal mechanism is unknown.

Christos Dimitrakakis, Yang Liu, David Parkes et al.

We consider the problem of how decision making can be fair when the underlying probabilistic model of the world is not known with certainty. We argue that recent notions of fairness in machine learning need to explicitly incorporate parameter uncertainty, hence we introduce the notion of {\em Bayesian fairness} as a suitable candidate for fair decision rules. Using balance, a definition of fairness introduced by Kleinberg et al (2016), we show how a Bayesian perspective can lead to well-performing, fair decision rules even under high uncertainty.

Rediet Abebe, Jon Kleinberg, David Parkes

In the classical cake cutting problem, a resource must be divided among agents with different utilities so that each agent believes they have received a fair share of the resource relative to the other agents. We introduce a variant of the problem in which we model an underlying social network on the agents with a graph, and agents only evaluate their shares relative to their neighbors' in the network. This formulation captures many situations in which it is unrealistic to assume a global view, and also exposes interesting phenomena in the original problem. Specifically, we say an allocation is locally envy-free if no agent envies a neighbor's allocation and locally proportional if each agent values her own allocation as much as the average value of her neighbor's allocations, with the former implying the latter. While global envy-freeness implies local envy-freeness, global proportionality does not imply local proportionality, or vice versa. A general result is that for any two distinct graphs on the same set of nodes and an allocation, there exists a set of valuation functions such that the allocation is locally proportional on one but not the other. We fully characterize the set of graphs for which an oblivious single-cutter protocol-- a protocol that uses a single agent to cut the cake into pieces --admits a bounded protocol with $O(n^2)$ query complexity for locally envy-free allocations in the Robertson-Webb model. We also consider the price of envy-freeness, which compares the total utility of an optimal allocation to the best utility of an allocation that is envy-free. We show that a lower bound of $Ω(\sqrt{n})$ on the price of envy-freeness for global allocations in fact holds for local envy-freeness in any connected undirected graph. Thus, sparse graphs surprisingly do not provide more flexibility with respect to the quality of envy-free allocations.