T. Tony Cai

T. Tony Cai, Yichen Wang, Linjun Zhang

Achieving optimal statistical performance while ensuring the privacy of personal data is a challenging yet crucial objective in modern data analysis. However, characterizing the optimality, particularly the minimax lower bound, under privacy constraints is technically difficult. To address this issue, we propose a novel approach called the score attack, which provides a lower bound on the differential-privacy-constrained minimax risk of parameter estimation. The score attack method is based on the tracing attack concept in differential privacy and can be applied to any statistical model with a well-defined score statistic. It can optimally lower bound the minimax risk of estimating unknown model parameters, up to a logarithmic factor, while ensuring differential privacy for a range of statistical problems. We demonstrate the effectiveness and optimality of this general method in various examples, such as the generalized linear model in both classical and high-dimensional sparse settings, the Bradley-Terry-Luce model for pairwise comparisons, and non-parametric regression over the Sobolev class.

Changxiao Cai, T. Tony Cai, Hongzhe Li

Motivated by a range of applications, we study in this paper the problem of transfer learning for nonparametric contextual multi-armed bandits under the covariate shift model, where we have data collected on source bandits before the start of the target bandit learning. The minimax rate of convergence for the cumulative regret is established and a novel transfer learning algorithm that attains the minimax regret is proposed. The results quantify the contribution of the data from the source domains for learning in the target domain in the context of nonparametric contextual multi-armed bandits. In view of the general impossibility of adaptation to unknown smoothness, we develop a data-driven algorithm that achieves near-optimal statistical guarantees (up to a logarithmic factor) while automatically adapting to the unknown parameters over a large collection of parameter spaces under an additional self-similarity assumption. A simulation study is carried out to illustrate the benefits of utilizing the data from the auxiliary source domains for learning in the target domain.

T. Tony Cai, Yicheng Li

The covariance matrix plays a fundamental role in the analysis of high-dimensional data. This paper studies minimax and adaptive estimation of high-dimensional bandable covariance matrices under differential privacy constraints. We propose a novel differentially private blockwise tridiagonal estimator that achieves minimax-optimal convergence rates under both the operator norm and the Frobenius norm. In contrast to the non-private setting, the privacy-induced error exhibits a polynomial dependence on the ambient dimension, revealing a substantial additional cost of privacy. To establish optimality, we develop a new differentially private van Trees inequality and construct carefully designed prior distributions to obtain matching minimax lower bounds. The proposed private van Trees inequality applies more broadly to general private estimation problems and is of independent interest. We further introduce an adaptive estimator that attains the optimal rate up to a logarithmic factor without prior knowledge of the decay parameter, based on a novel hierarchical tridiagonal approach. Numerical experiments corroborate the theoretical results and illustrate the fundamental privacy-accuracy trade-off.

T. Tony Cai, Hongming Pu

Transfer learning for nonparametric regression is considered. We first study the non-asymptotic minimax risk for this problem and develop a novel estimator called the confidence thresholding estimator, which is shown to achieve the minimax optimal risk up to a logarithmic factor. Our results demonstrate two unique phenomena in transfer learning: auto-smoothing and super-acceleration, which differentiate it from nonparametric regression in a traditional setting. We then propose a data-driven algorithm that adaptively achieves the minimax risk up to a logarithmic factor across a wide range of parameter spaces. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the numerical performance of the adaptive transfer learning algorithm, and a real-world example is provided to demonstrate the benefits of the proposed method.

T. Tony Cai, Xiang Li, Qi Long et al.

Text watermarking plays a crucial role in ensuring the traceability and accountability of large language model (LLM) outputs and mitigating misuse. While promising, most existing methods assume perfect pseudorandomness. In practice, repetition in generated text induces collisions that create structured dependence, compromising Type I error control and invalidating standard analyses. We introduce a statistical framework that captures this structure through a hierarchical two-layer partition. At its core is the concept of minimal units -- the smallest groups treatable as independent across units while permitting dependence within. Using minimal units, we define a non-asymptotic efficiency measure and cast watermark detection as a minimax hypothesis testing problem. Applied to Gumbel-max and inverse-transform watermarks, our framework produces closed-form optimal rules. It explains why discarding repeated statistics often improves performance and shows that within-unit dependence must be addressed unless degenerate. Both theory and experiments confirm improved detection power with rigorous Type I error control. These results provide the first principled foundation for watermark detection under imperfect pseudorandomness, offering both theoretical insight and practical guidance for reliable tracing of model outputs.

T. Tony Cai, Abhinav Chakraborty, Lasse Vuursteen

This paper studies federated learning for nonparametric regression in the context of distributed samples across different servers, each adhering to distinct differential privacy constraints. The setting we consider is heterogeneous, encompassing both varying sample sizes and differential privacy constraints across servers. Within this framework, both global and pointwise estimation are considered, and optimal rates of convergence over the Besov spaces are established. Distributed privacy-preserving estimators are proposed and their risk properties are investigated. Matching minimax lower bounds, up to a logarithmic factor, are established for both global and pointwise estimation. Together, these findings shed light on the tradeoff between statistical accuracy and privacy preservation. In particular, we characterize the compromise not only in terms of the privacy budget but also concerning the loss incurred by distributing data within the privacy framework as a whole. This insight captures the folklore wisdom that it is easier to retain privacy in larger samples, and explores the differences between pointwise and global estimation under distributed privacy constraints.

T. Tony Cai, Abhinav Chakraborty, Lasse Vuursteen

Federated learning has attracted significant recent attention due to its applicability across a wide range of settings where data is collected and analyzed across disparate locations. In this paper, we study federated nonparametric goodness-of-fit testing in the white-noise-with-drift model under distributed differential privacy (DP) constraints. We first establish matching lower and upper bounds, up to a logarithmic factor, on the minimax separation rate. This optimal rate serves as a benchmark for the difficulty of the testing problem, factoring in model characteristics such as the number of observations, noise level, and regularity of the signal class, along with the strictness of the $(ε,δ)$-DP requirement. The results demonstrate interesting and novel phase transition phenomena. Furthermore, the results reveal an interesting phenomenon that distributed one-shot protocols with access to shared randomness outperform those without access to shared randomness. We also construct a data-driven testing procedure that possesses the ability to adapt to an unknown regularity parameter over a large collection of function classes with minimal additional cost, all while maintaining adherence to the same set of DP constraints.

T. Tony Cai, Rong Ma

Motivated by applications in single-cell biology and metagenomics, we investigate the problem of matrix reordering based on a noisy disordered monotone Toeplitz matrix model. We establish the fundamental statistical limit for this problem in a decision-theoretic framework and demonstrate that a constrained least squares estimator achieves the optimal rate. However, due to its computational complexity, we analyze a popular polynomial-time algorithm, spectral seriation, and show that it is suboptimal. To address this, we propose a novel polynomial-time adaptive sorting algorithm with guaranteed performance improvement. Simulations and analyses of two real single-cell RNA sequencing datasets demonstrate the superiority of our algorithm over existing methods.

T. Tony Cai, Hongji Wei

Distributed minimax estimation and distributed adaptive estimation under communication constraints for Gaussian sequence model and white noise model are studied. The minimax rate of convergence for distributed estimation over a given Besov class, which serves as a benchmark for the cost of adaptation, is established. We then quantify the exact communication cost for adaptation and construct an optimally adaptive procedure for distributed estimation over a range of Besov classes. The results demonstrate significant differences between nonparametric function estimation in the distributed setting and the conventional centralized setting. For global estimation, adaptation in general cannot be achieved for free in the distributed setting. The new technical tools to obtain the exact characterization for the cost of adaptation can be of independent interest.

T. Tony Cai, Rong Ma

This paper investigates the theoretical foundations of the t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE) algorithm, a popular nonlinear dimension reduction and data visualization method. A novel theoretical framework for the analysis of t-SNE based on the gradient descent approach is presented. For the early exaggeration stage of t-SNE, we show its asymptotic equivalence to power iterations based on the underlying graph Laplacian, characterize its limiting behavior, and uncover its deep connection to Laplacian spectral clustering, and fundamental principles including early stopping as implicit regularization. The results explain the intrinsic mechanism and the empirical benefits of such a computational strategy. For the embedding stage of t-SNE, we characterize the kinematics of the low-dimensional map throughout the iterations, and identify an amplification phase, featuring the intercluster repulsion and the expansive behavior of the low-dimensional map, and a stabilization phase. The general theory explains the fast convergence rate and the exceptional empirical performance of t-SNE for visualizing clustered data, brings forth interpretations of the t-SNE visualizations, and provides theoretical guidance for applying t-SNE and selecting its tuning parameters in various applications.

T. Tony Cai, Yichen Wang, Linjun Zhang

We propose differentially private algorithms for parameter estimation in both low-dimensional and high-dimensional sparse generalized linear models (GLMs) by constructing private versions of projected gradient descent. We show that the proposed algorithms are nearly rate-optimal by characterizing their statistical performance and establishing privacy-constrained minimax lower bounds for GLMs. The lower bounds are obtained via a novel technique, which is based on Stein's Lemma and generalizes the tracing attack technique for privacy-constrained lower bounds. This lower bound argument can be of independent interest as it is applicable to general parametric models. Simulated and real data experiments are conducted to demonstrate the numerical performance of our algorithms.

Linjun Zhang, Rong Ma, T. Tony Cai et al.

This paper studies the high-dimensional mixed linear regression (MLR) where the output variable comes from one of the two linear regression models with an unknown mixing proportion and an unknown covariance structure of the random covariates. Building upon a high-dimensional EM algorithm, we propose an iterative procedure for estimating the two regression vectors and establish their rates of convergence. Based on the iterative estimators, we further construct debiased estimators and establish their asymptotic normality. For individual coordinates, confidence intervals centered at the debiased estimators are constructed. Furthermore, a large-scale multiple testing procedure is proposed for testing the regression coefficients and is shown to control the false discovery rate (FDR) asymptotically. Simulation studies are carried out to examine the numerical performance of the proposed methods and their superiority over existing methods. The proposed methods are further illustrated through an analysis of a dataset of multiplex image cytometry, which investigates the interaction networks among the cellular phenotypes that include the expression levels of 20 epitopes or combinations of markers.

Sai Li, T. Tony Cai, Hongzhe Li

Transfer learning for high-dimensional Gaussian graphical models (GGMs) is studied with the goal of estimating the target GGM by utilizing the data from similar and related auxiliary studies. The similarity between the target graph and each auxiliary graph is characterized by the sparsity of a divergence matrix. An estimation algorithm, Trans-CLIME, is proposed and shown to attain a faster convergence rate than the minimax rate in the single study setting. Furthermore, a debiased Trans-CLIME estimator is introduced and shown to be element-wise asymptotically normal. It is used to construct a multiple testing procedure for edge detection with false discovery rate control. The proposed estimation and multiple testing procedures demonstrate superior numerical performance in simulations and are applied to infer the gene networks in a target brain tissue by leveraging the gene expressions from multiple other brain tissues. A significant decrease in prediction errors and a significant increase in power for link detection are observed.

Sai Li, T. Tony Cai, Hongzhe Li

This paper considers the estimation and prediction of a high-dimensional linear regression in the setting of transfer learning, using samples from the target model as well as auxiliary samples from different but possibly related regression models. When the set of "informative" auxiliary samples is known, an estimator and a predictor are proposed and their optimality is established. The optimal rates of convergence for prediction and estimation are faster than the corresponding rates without using the auxiliary samples. This implies that knowledge from the informative auxiliary samples can be transferred to improve the learning performance of the target problem. In the case that the set of informative auxiliary samples is unknown, we propose a data-driven procedure for transfer learning, called Trans-Lasso, and reveal its robustness to non-informative auxiliary samples and its efficiency in knowledge transfer. The proposed procedures are demonstrated in numerical studies and are applied to a dataset concerning the associations among gene expressions. It is shown that Trans-Lasso leads to improved performance in gene expression prediction in a target tissue by incorporating the data from multiple different tissues as auxiliary samples.

T. Tony Cai, Hongzhe Li, Rong Ma

Driven by a wide range of applications, many principal subspace estimation problems have been studied individually under different structural constraints. This paper presents a unified framework for the statistical analysis of a general structured principal subspace estimation problem which includes as special cases non-negative PCA/SVD, sparse PCA/SVD, subspace constrained PCA/SVD, and spectral clustering. General minimax lower and upper bounds are established to characterize the interplay between the information-geometric complexity of the structural set for the principal subspaces, the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), and the dimensionality. The results yield interesting phase transition phenomena concerning the rates of convergence as a function of the SNRs and the fundamental limit for consistent estimation. Applying the general results to the specific settings yields the minimax rates of convergence for those problems, including the previous unknown optimal rates for non-negative PCA/SVD, sparse SVD and subspace constrained PCA/SVD.

T. Tony Cai, Hongji Wei

We study distributed estimation of a Gaussian mean under communication constraints in a decision theoretical framework. Minimax rates of convergence, which characterize the tradeoff between the communication costs and statistical accuracy, are established in both the univariate and multivariate settings. Communication-efficient and statistically optimal procedures are developed. In the univariate case, the optimal rate depends only on the total communication budget, so long as each local machine has at least one bit. However, in the multivariate case, the minimax rate depends on the specific allocations of the communication budgets among the local machines. Although optimal estimation of a Gaussian mean is relatively simple in the conventional setting, it is quite involved under the communication constraints, both in terms of the optimal procedure design and lower bound argument. The techniques developed in this paper can be of independent interest. An essential step is the decomposition of the minimax estimation problem into two stages, localization and refinement. This critical decomposition provides a framework for both the lower bound analysis and optimal procedure design.

Abhishek Chakrabortty, Jiarui Lu, T. Tony Cai et al.

We consider high dimensional $M$-estimation in settings where the response $Y$ is possibly missing at random and the covariates $\mathbf{X} \in \mathbb{R}^p$ can be high dimensional compared to the sample size $n$. The parameter of interest $\boldsymbolθ_0 \in \mathbb{R}^d$ is defined as the minimizer of the risk of a convex loss, under a fully non-parametric model, and $\boldsymbolθ_0$ itself is high dimensional which is a key distinction from existing works. Standard high dimensional regression and series estimation with possibly misspecified models and missing $Y$ are included as special cases, as well as their counterparts in causal inference using 'potential outcomes'. Assuming $\boldsymbolθ_0$ is $s$-sparse ($s \ll n$), we propose an $L_1$-regularized debiased and doubly robust (DDR) estimator of $\boldsymbolθ_0$ based on a high dimensional adaptation of the traditional double robust (DR) estimator's construction. Under mild tail assumptions and arbitrarily chosen (working) models for the propensity score (PS) and the outcome regression (OR) estimators, satisfying only some high-level conditions, we establish finite sample performance bounds for the DDR estimator showing its (optimal) $L_2$ error rate to be $\sqrt{s (\log d)/ n}$ when both models are correct, and its consistency and DR properties when only one of them is correct. Further, when both the models are correct, we propose a desparsified version of our DDR estimator that satisfies an asymptotic linear expansion and facilitates inference on low dimensional components of $\boldsymbolθ_0$. Finally, we discuss various of choices of high dimensional parametric/semi-parametric working models for the PS and OR estimators. All results are validated via detailed simulations.

T. Tony Cai, Anru R. Zhang, Yuchen Zhou

We study sparse group Lasso for high-dimensional double sparse linear regression, where the parameter of interest is simultaneously element-wise and group-wise sparse. This problem is an important instance of the simultaneously structured model -- an actively studied topic in statistics and machine learning. In the noiseless case, matching upper and lower bounds on sample complexity are established for the exact recovery of sparse vectors and for stable estimation of approximately sparse vectors, respectively. In the noisy case, upper and matching minimax lower bounds for estimation error are obtained. We also consider the debiased sparse group Lasso and investigate its asymptotic property for the purpose of statistical inference. Finally, numerical studies are provided to support the theoretical results.

T. Tony Cai, Hongji Wei

Human learners have the natural ability to use knowledge gained in one setting for learning in a different but related setting. This ability to transfer knowledge from one task to another is essential for effective learning. In this paper, we study transfer learning in the context of nonparametric classification based on observations from different distributions under the posterior drift model, which is a general framework and arises in many practical problems. We first establish the minimax rate of convergence and construct a rate-optimal two-sample weighted $K$-NN classifier. The results characterize precisely the contribution of the observations from the source distribution to the classification task under the target distribution. A data-driven adaptive classifier is then proposed and is shown to simultaneously attain within a logarithmic factor of the optimal rate over a large collection of parameter spaces. Simulation studies and real data applications are carried out where the numerical results further illustrate the theoretical analysis. Extensions to the case of multiple source distributions are also considered.

T. Tony Cai, Yichen Wang, Linjun Zhang

Privacy-preserving data analysis is a rising challenge in contemporary statistics, as the privacy guarantees of statistical methods are often achieved at the expense of accuracy. In this paper, we investigate the tradeoff between statistical accuracy and privacy in mean estimation and linear regression, under both the classical low-dimensional and modern high-dimensional settings. A primary focus is to establish minimax optimality for statistical estimation with the $(\varepsilon,δ)$-differential privacy constraint. To this end, we find that classical lower bound arguments fail to yield sharp results, and new technical tools are called for. By refining the "tracing adversary" technique for lower bounds in the theoretical computer science literature, we formulate a general lower bound argument for minimax risks with differential privacy constraints, and apply this argument to high-dimensional mean estimation and linear regression problems. We also design computationally efficient algorithms that attain the minimax lower bounds up to a logarithmic factor. In particular, for the high-dimensional linear regression, a novel private iterative hard thresholding pursuit algorithm is proposed, based on a privately truncated version of stochastic gradient descent. The numerical performance of these algorithms is demonstrated by simulation studies and applications to real data containing sensitive information, for which privacy-preserving statistical methods are necessary.

Anru R. Zhang, T. Tony Cai, Yihong Wu

A general framework for principal component analysis (PCA) in the presence of heteroskedastic noise is introduced. We propose an algorithm called HeteroPCA, which involves iteratively imputing the diagonal entries of the sample covariance matrix to remove estimation bias due to heteroskedasticity. This procedure is computationally efficient and provably optimal under the generalized spiked covariance model. A key technical step is a deterministic robust perturbation analysis on singular subspaces, which can be of independent interest. The effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated in a suite of problems in high-dimensional statistics, including singular value decomposition (SVD) under heteroskedastic noise, Poisson PCA, and SVD for heteroskedastic and incomplete data.

T. Tony Cai, Tengyuan Liang, Alexander Rakhlin

We study the misclassification error for community detection in general heterogeneous stochastic block models (SBM) with noisy or partial label information. We establish a connection between the misclassification rate and the notion of minimum energy on the local neighborhood of the SBM. We develop an optimally weighted message passing algorithm to reconstruct labels for SBM based on the minimum energy flow and the eigenvectors of a certain Markov transition matrix. The general SBM considered in this paper allows for unequal-size communities, degree heterogeneity, and different connection probabilities among blocks. We focus on how to optimally weigh the message passing to improve misclassification.

Anru Zhang, Lawrence D. Brown, T. Tony Cai

We propose a general semi-supervised inference framework focused on the estimation of the population mean. As usual in semi-supervised settings, there exists an unlabeled sample of covariate vectors and a labeled sample consisting of covariate vectors along with real-valued responses ("labels"). Otherwise, the formulation is "assumption-lean" in that no major conditions are imposed on the statistical or functional form of the data. We consider both the ideal semi-supervised setting where infinitely many unlabeled samples are available, as well as the ordinary semi-supervised setting in which only a finite number of unlabeled samples is available. Estimators are proposed along with corresponding confidence intervals for the population mean. Theoretical analysis on both the asymptotic distribution and $\ell_2$-risk for the proposed procedures are given. Surprisingly, the proposed estimators, based on a simple form of the least squares method, outperform the ordinary sample mean. The simple, transparent form of the estimator lends confidence to the perception that its asymptotic improvement over the ordinary sample mean also nearly holds even for moderate size samples. The method is further extended to a nonparametric setting, in which the oracle rate can be achieved asymptotically. The proposed estimators are further illustrated by simulation studies and a real data example involving estimation of the homeless population.

T. Tony Cai, Tengyuan Liang, Alexander Rakhlin

In this paper, we study detection and fast reconstruction of the celebrated Watts-Strogatz (WS) small-world random graph model \citep{watts1998collective} which aims to describe real-world complex networks that exhibit both high clustering and short average length properties. The WS model with neighborhood size $k$ and rewiring probability probability $β$ can be viewed as a continuous interpolation between a deterministic ring lattice graph and the Erdős-Rényi random graph. We study both the computational and statistical aspects of detecting the deterministic ring lattice structure (or local geographical links, strong ties) in the presence of random connections (or long range links, weak ties), and for its recovery. The phase diagram in terms of $(k,β)$ is partitioned into several regions according to the difficulty of the problem. We propose distinct methods for the various regions.

T. Tony Cai, Tengyuan Liang, Alexander Rakhlin

We study the community detection and recovery problem in partially-labeled stochastic block models (SBM). We develop a fast linearized message-passing algorithm to reconstruct labels for SBM (with $n$ nodes, $k$ blocks, $p,q$ intra and inter block connectivity) when $δ$ proportion of node labels are revealed. The signal-to-noise ratio ${\sf SNR}(n,k,p,q,δ)$ is shown to characterize the fundamental limitations of inference via local algorithms. On the one hand, when ${\sf SNR}>1$, the linearized message-passing algorithm provides the statistical inference guarantee with mis-classification rate at most $\exp(-({\sf SNR}-1)/2)$, thus interpolating smoothly between strong and weak consistency. This exponential dependence improves upon the known error rate $({\sf SNR}-1)^{-1}$ in the literature on weak recovery. On the other hand, when ${\sf SNR}<1$ (for $k=2$) and ${\sf SNR}<1/4$ (for general growing $k$), we prove that local algorithms suffer an error rate at least $\frac{1}{2} - \sqrt{δ\cdot {\sf SNR}}$, which is only slightly better than random guess for small $δ$.

T. Tony Cai, Linjun Zhang

We discuss a clustering method for Gaussian mixture model based on the sparse principal component analysis (SPCA) method and compare it with the IF-PCA method. We also discuss the dependent case where the covariance matrix $Σ$ is not necessarily diagonal.

T. Tony Cai, Xiaodong Li, Zongming Ma

This paper considers the noisy sparse phase retrieval problem: recovering a sparse signal $x \in \mathbb{R}^p$ from noisy quadratic measurements $y_j = (a_j' x )^2 + ε_j$, $j=1, \ldots, m$, with independent sub-exponential noise $ε_j$. The goals are to understand the effect of the sparsity of $x$ on the estimation precision and to construct a computationally feasible estimator to achieve the optimal rates. Inspired by the Wirtinger Flow [12] proposed for noiseless and non-sparse phase retrieval, a novel thresholded gradient descent algorithm is proposed and it is shown to adaptively achieve the minimax optimal rates of convergence over a wide range of sparsity levels when the $a_j$'s are independent standard Gaussian random vectors, provided that the sample size is sufficiently large compared to the sparsity of $x$.

Tianxi Cai, T. Tony Cai, Anru Zhang

Matrix completion has attracted significant recent attention in many fields including statistics, applied mathematics and electrical engineering. Current literature on matrix completion focuses primarily on independent sampling models under which the individual observed entries are sampled independently. Motivated by applications in genomic data integration, we propose a new framework of structured matrix completion (SMC) to treat structured missingness by design. Specifically, our proposed method aims at efficient matrix recovery when a subset of the rows and columns of an approximately low-rank matrix are observed. We provide theoretical justification for the proposed SMC method and derive lower bound for the estimation errors, which together establish the optimal rate of recovery over certain classes of approximately low-rank matrices. Simulation studies show that the method performs well in finite sample under a variety of configurations. The method is applied to integrate several ovarian cancer genomic studies with different extent of genomic measurements, which enables us to construct more accurate prediction rules for ovarian cancer survival.

T. Tony Cai, Tengyuan Liang, Alexander Rakhlin

The interplay between computational efficiency and statistical accuracy in high-dimensional inference has drawn increasing attention in the literature. In this paper, we study computational and statistical boundaries for submatrix localization. Given one observation of (one or multiple non-overlapping) signal submatrix (of magnitude $λ$ and size $k_m \times k_n$) contaminated with a noise matrix (of size $m \times n$), we establish two transition thresholds for the signal to noise $λ/σ$ ratio in terms of $m$, $n$, $k_m$, and $k_n$. The first threshold, $\sf SNR_c$, corresponds to the computational boundary. Below this threshold, it is shown that no polynomial time algorithm can succeed in identifying the submatrix, under the \textit{hidden clique hypothesis}. We introduce adaptive linear time spectral algorithms that identify the submatrix with high probability when the signal strength is above the threshold $\sf SNR_c$. The second threshold, $\sf SNR_s$, captures the statistical boundary, below which no method can succeed with probability going to one in the minimax sense. The exhaustive search method successfully finds the submatrix above this threshold. The results show an interesting phenomenon that $\sf SNR_c$ is always significantly larger than $\sf SNR_s$, which implies an essential gap between statistical optimality and computational efficiency for submatrix localization.

T. Tony Cai, Ming Yuan

Motivated by a range of applications in engineering and genomics, we consider in this paper detection of very short signal segments in three settings: signals with known shape, arbitrary signals, and smooth signals. Optimal rates of detection are established for the three cases and rate-optimal detectors are constructed. The detectors are easily implementable and are based on scanning with linear and quadratic statistics. Our analysis reveals both similarities and differences in the strategy and fundamental difficulty of detection among these three settings.

T. Tony Cai, Xiaodong Li

Community detection, which aims to cluster $N$ nodes in a given graph into $r$ distinct groups based on the observed undirected edges, is an important problem in network data analysis. In this paper, the popular stochastic block model (SBM) is extended to the generalized stochastic block model (GSBM) that allows for adversarial outlier nodes, which are connected with the other nodes in the graph in an arbitrary way. Under this model, we introduce a procedure using convex optimization followed by $k$-means algorithm with $k=r$. Both theoretical and numerical properties of the method are analyzed. A theoretical guarantee is given for the procedure to accurately detect the communities with small misclassification rate under the setting where the number of clusters can grow with $N$. This theoretical result admits to the best-known result in the literature of computationally feasible community detection in SBM without outliers. Numerical results show that our method is both computationally fast and robust to different kinds of outliers, while some popular computationally fast community detection algorithms, such as spectral clustering applied to adjacency matrices or graph Laplacians, may fail to retrieve the major clusters due to a small portion of outliers. We apply a slight modification of our method to a political blogs data set, showing that our method is competent in practice and comparable to existing computationally feasible methods in the literature. To the best of the authors' knowledge, our result is the first in the literature in terms of clustering communities with fast growing numbers under the GSBM where a portion of arbitrary outlier nodes exist.

T. Tony Cai, Tengyuan Liang, Alexander Rakhlin

This paper presents a unified geometric framework for the statistical analysis of a general ill-posed linear inverse model which includes as special cases noisy compressed sensing, sign vector recovery, trace regression, orthogonal matrix estimation, and noisy matrix completion. We propose computationally feasible convex programs for statistical inference including estimation, confidence intervals and hypothesis testing. A theoretical framework is developed to characterize the local estimation rate of convergence and to provide statistical inference guarantees. Our results are built based on the local conic geometry and duality. The difficulty of statistical inference is captured by the geometric characterization of the local tangent cone through the Gaussian width and Sudakov minoration estimate.

T. Tony Cai, Anru Zhang

Estimation of low-rank matrices is of significant interest in a range of contemporary applications. In this paper, we introduce a rank-one projection model for low-rank matrix recovery and propose a constrained nuclear norm minimization method for stable recovery of low-rank matrices in the noisy case. The procedure is adaptive to the rank and robust against small perturbations. Both upper and lower bounds for the estimation accuracy under the Frobenius norm loss are obtained. The proposed estimator is shown to be rate-optimal under certain conditions. The estimator is easy to implement via convex programming and performs well numerically. The techniques and main results developed in the paper also have implications to other related statistical problems. An application to estimation of spiked covariance matrices from one-dimensional random projections is considered. The results demonstrate that it is still possible to accurately estimate the covariance matrix of a high-dimensional distribution based only on one-dimensional projections.

T. Tony Cai, Wen-Xin Zhou

We consider in this paper the problem of noisy 1-bit matrix completion under a general non-uniform sampling distribution using the max-norm as a convex relaxation for the rank. A max-norm constrained maximum likelihood estimate is introduced and studied. The rate of convergence for the estimate is obtained. Information-theoretical methods are used to establish a minimax lower bound under the general sampling model. The minimax upper and lower bounds together yield the optimal rate of convergence for the Frobenius norm loss. Computational algorithms and numerical performance are also discussed.

T. Tony Cai, Anru Zhang

This paper considers compressed sensing and affine rank minimization in both noiseless and noisy cases and establishes sharp restricted isometry conditions for sparse signal and low-rank matrix recovery. The analysis relies on a key technical tool which represents points in a polytope by convex combinations of sparse vectors. The technique is elementary while leads to sharp results. It is shown that for any given constant $t\ge {4/3}$, in compressed sensing $δ_{tk}^A < \sqrt{(t-1)/t}$ guarantees the exact recovery of all $k$ sparse signals in the noiseless case through the constrained $\ell_1$ minimization, and similarly in affine rank minimization $δ_{tr}^\mathcal{M}< \sqrt{(t-1)/t}$ ensures the exact reconstruction of all matrices with rank at most $r$ in the noiseless case via the constrained nuclear norm minimization. Moreover, for any $ε>0$, $δ_{tk}^A<\sqrt{\frac{t-1}{t}}+ε$ is not sufficient to guarantee the exact recovery of all $k$-sparse signals for large $k$. Similar result also holds for matrix recovery. In addition, the conditions $δ_{tk}^A < \sqrt{(t-1)/t}$ and $δ_{tr}^\mathcal{M}< \sqrt{(t-1)/t}$ are also shown to be sufficient respectively for stable recovery of approximately sparse signals and low-rank matrices in the noisy case.

T. Tony Cai, Wen-Xin Zhou

Matrix completion has been well studied under the uniform sampling model and the trace-norm regularized methods perform well both theoretically and numerically in such a setting. However, the uniform sampling model is unrealistic for a range of applications and the standard trace-norm relaxation can behave very poorly when the underlying sampling scheme is non-uniform. In this paper we propose and analyze a max-norm constrained empirical risk minimization method for noisy matrix completion under a general sampling model. The optimal rate of convergence is established under the Frobenius norm loss in the context of approximately low-rank matrix reconstruction. It is shown that the max-norm constrained method is minimax rate-optimal and yields a unified and robust approximate recovery guarantee, with respect to the sampling distributions. The computational effectiveness of this method is also discussed, based on first-order algorithms for solving convex optimizations involving max-norm regularization.