Xiaoshuang Jia

Siyuan Ma, Bo Gao, Xiaojun Jia et al.

The paradigm of large language model (LLM) reasoning is shifting from parameter scaling to test-time compute scaling, yet many existing approaches still rely on uniform brute-force sampling (for example, fixed best-of-N or self-consistency) that is costly, hard to attribute, and can trigger overthinking with diminishing returns. We propose ODAR-Expert, an adaptive routing framework that optimizes the accuracy-efficiency trade-off via principled resource allocation. ODAR uses a difficulty estimator grounded in amortized active inference to dynamically route queries between a heuristic Fast Agent and a deliberative Slow Agent. We further introduce a free-energy-principled, risk-sensitive fusion mechanism that selects answers by minimizing a variational free energy objective, balancing log-likelihood with epistemic uncertainty (varentropy) as a principled alternative to ad hoc voting over heterogeneous candidates. Extensive evaluation across 23 benchmarks shows strong and consistent gains, including 98.2% accuracy on MATH and 54.8% on Humanity's Last Exam (HLE), while improving the compute-accuracy frontier under compute-matched settings. We also validate reproducibility on a fully open-source stack (Llama 4 + DeepSeek), where ODAR surpasses homogeneous sampling strategies while reducing computational costs by 82%. Overall, our results suggest that thinking-optimal scaling requires adaptive resource allocation with free-energy-based decision-making rather than simply increasing test-time compute.

Zhitao Zeng, Guojian Yuan, Junyuan Mao et al.

Accurate temporal prediction is the bridge between comprehensive scene understanding and embodied artificial intelligence. However, predicting multiple fine-grained states of a scene at multiple temporal scales is difficult for vision-language models. We formalize the Multi-Scale Temporal Prediction (MSTP) task in general and surgical scenes by decomposing multi-scale into two orthogonal dimensions: the temporal scale, forecasting states of humans and surgery at varying look-ahead intervals, and the state scale, modeling a hierarchy of states in general and surgical scenes. For example, in general scenes, states of contact relationships are finer-grained than states of spatial relationships. In surgical scenes, medium-level steps are finer-grained than high-level phases yet remain constrained by their encompassing phase. To support this unified task, we introduce the first MSTP Benchmark, featuring synchronized annotations across multiple state scales and temporal scales. We further propose a method, Incremental Generation and Multi-agent Collaboration (IG-MC), which integrates two key innovations. First, we present a plug-and-play incremental generation module that continuously synthesizes up-to-date visual previews at expanding temporal scales to inform multiple decision-making agents, keeping decisions and generated visuals synchronized and preventing performance degradation as look-ahead intervals lengthen. Second, we present a decision-driven multi-agent collaboration framework for multi-state prediction, comprising generation, initiation, and multi-state assessment agents that dynamically trigger and evaluate prediction cycles to balance global coherence and local fidelity.