Fabian Sinz

Seth Donahue, Irina Djuraskovic, Kunal Shah et al.

Video-based human movement analysis holds potential for movement assessment in clinical practice and research. However, the clinical implementation and trust of multi-view markerless motion capture (MMMC) require that, in addition to being accurate, these systems produce reliable confidence intervals to indicate how accurate they are for any individual. Building on our prior work utilizing variational inference to estimate joint angle posterior distributions, this study evaluates the calibration and reliability of a probabilistic MMMC method. We analyzed data from 68 participants across two institutions, validating the model against an instrumented walkway and standard marker-based motion capture. We measured the calibration of the confidence intervals using the Expected Calibration Error (ECE). The model demonstrated reliable calibration, yielding ECE values generally < 0.1 for both step and stride length and bias-corrected gait kinematics. We observed a median step and stride length error of ~16 mm and ~12 mm respectively, with median bias-corrected kinematic errors ranging from 1.5 to 3.8 degrees across lower extremity joints. Consistent with the calibrated ECE, the magnitude of the model's predicted uncertainty correlated strongly with observed error measures. These findings indicate that, as designed, the probabilistic model reconstruction quantifies epistemic uncertainty, allowing it to identify unreliable outputs without the need for concurrent ground-truth instrumentation.

Stefan Schrod, Fabian Sinz, Michael Altenbuchinger

The development of causal prediction models is challenged by the fact that the outcome is only observable for the applied (factual) intervention and not for its alternatives (the so-called counterfactuals); in medicine we only know patients' survival for the administered drug and not for other therapeutic options. Machine learning approaches for counterfactual reasoning have to deal with both unobserved outcomes and distributional differences due to non-random treatment administration. Unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) addresses similar issues; one has to deal with unobserved outcomes -- the labels of the target domain -- and distributional differences between source and target domain. We propose Adversarial Distribution Balancing for Counterfactual Reasoning (ADBCR), which directly uses potential outcome estimates of the counterfactuals to remove spurious causal relations. We show that ADBCR outcompetes state-of-the-art methods on three benchmark datasets, and demonstrate that ADBCR's performance can be further improved if unlabeled validation data are included in the training procedure to better adapt the model to the validation domain.

R. James Cotton, Fabian Sinz

Advances in multiview markerless motion capture (MMMC) promise high-quality movement analysis for clinical practice and research. While prior validation studies show MMMC performs well on average, they do not provide what is needed in clinical practice or for large-scale utilization of MMMC -- confidence intervals over specific kinematic estimates from a specific individual analyzed using a possibly unique camera configuration. We extend our previous work using an implicit representation of trajectories optimized end-to-end through a differentiable biomechanical model to learn the posterior probability distribution over pose given all the detected keypoints. This posterior probability is learned through a variational approximation and estimates confidence intervals for individual joints at each moment in a trial, showing confidence intervals generally within 10-15 mm of spatial error for virtual marker locations, consistent with our prior validation studies. Confidence intervals over joint angles are typically only a few degrees and widen for more distal joints. The posterior also models the correlation structure over joint angles, such as correlations between hip and pelvis angles. The confidence intervals estimated through this method allow us to identify times and trials where kinematic uncertainty is high.