Tiffany Tianhui Cai

Tiffany Tianhui Cai, Hongseok Namkoong, Steve Yadlowsky

Prediction models can perform poorly when deployed to target distributions different from the training distribution. To understand these operational failure modes, we develop a method, called DIstribution Shift DEcomposition (DISDE), to attribute a drop in performance to different types of distribution shifts. Our approach decomposes the performance drop into terms for 1) an increase in harder but frequently seen examples from training, 2) changes in the relationship between features and outcomes, and 3) poor performance on examples infrequent or unseen during training. These terms are defined by fixing a distribution on $X$ while varying the conditional distribution of $Y \mid X$ between training and target, or by fixing the conditional distribution of $Y \mid X$ while varying the distribution on $X$. In order to do this, we define a hypothetical distribution on $X$ consisting of values common in both training and target, over which it is easy to compare $Y \mid X$ and thus predictive performance. We estimate performance on this hypothetical distribution via reweighting methods. Empirically, we show how our method can 1) inform potential modeling improvements across distribution shifts for employment prediction on tabular census data, and 2) help to explain why certain domain adaptation methods fail to improve model performance for satellite image classification.

Kelly W. Zhang, Tiffany Tianhui Cai, Hongseok Namkoong et al.

We introduce a framework for Thompson sampling (TS) contextual bandit algorithms, in which the algorithm's ability to quantify uncertainty and make decisions depends on the quality of a generative model that is learned offline. Instead of viewing uncertainty in the environment as arising from unobservable latent parameters, our algorithm treats uncertainty as stemming from missing, but potentially observable outcomes (including both future and counterfactual outcomes). If these outcomes were all observed, one could simply make decisions using an "oracle" policy fit on the complete dataset. Inspired by this conceptualization, at each decision-time, our algorithm uses a generative model to probabilistically impute missing outcomes, fits a policy using the imputed complete dataset, and uses that policy to select the next action. We formally show that this algorithm is a generative formulation of TS and establish a state-of-the-art regret bound. Notably, our regret bound depends on the generative model only through the quality of its offline prediction loss, and applies to any method of fitting the "oracle" policy.

Tiffany Tianhui Cai, Yuri Fonseca, Kaiwen Hou et al.

Popular debiased estimation methods for causal inference -- such as augmented inverse propensity weighting and targeted maximum likelihood estimation -- enjoy desirable asymptotic properties like statistical efficiency and double robustness but they can produce unstable estimates when there is limited overlap between treatment and control, requiring additional assumptions or ad hoc adjustments in practice (e.g., truncating propensity scores). In contrast, simple plug-in estimators are stable but lack desirable asymptotic properties. We propose a novel debiasing approach that achieves the best of both worlds, producing stable plug-in estimates with desirable asymptotic properties. Our constrained learning framework solves for the best plug-in estimator under the constraint that the first-order error with respect to the plugged-in quantity is zero, and can leverage flexible model classes including neural networks and tree ensembles. In several experimental settings, including ones in which we handle text-based covariates by fine-tuning language models, our constrained learning-based estimator outperforms basic versions of one-step estimation and targeting in challenging settings with limited overlap between treatment and control, and performs similarly otherwise.

Tiffany Tianhui Cai, Jonathan Frankle, David J. Schwab et al.

Self-supervised learning has recently begun to rival supervised learning on computer vision tasks. Many of the recent approaches have been based on contrastive instance discrimination (CID), in which the network is trained to recognize two augmented versions of the same instance (a query and positive) while discriminating against a pool of other instances (negatives). The learned representation is then used on downstream tasks such as image classification. Using methodology from MoCo v2 (Chen et al., 2020), we divided negatives by their difficulty for a given query and studied which difficulty ranges were most important for learning useful representations. We found a minority of negatives -- the hardest 5% -- were both necessary and sufficient for the downstream task to reach nearly full accuracy. Conversely, the easiest 95% of negatives were unnecessary and insufficient. Moreover, the very hardest 0.1% of negatives were unnecessary and sometimes detrimental. Finally, we studied the properties of negatives that affect their hardness, and found that hard negatives were more semantically similar to the query, and that some negatives were more consistently easy or hard than we would expect by chance. Together, our results indicate that negatives vary in importance and that CID may benefit from more intelligent negative treatment.