Victor Chernozhukov, Christian Hansen, Nathan Kallus et al.
An introduction to the emerging fusion of machine learning and causal inference. The book presents ideas from classical structural equation models (SEMs) and their modern AI equivalent, directed acyclical graphs (DAGs) and structural causal models (SCMs), and covers Double/Debiased Machine Learning methods to do inference in such models using modern predictive tools.
Gino Gulamhussene, Anneke Meyer, Marko Rak et al.
Organ motion poses an unresolved challenge in image-guided interventions. In the pursuit of solving this problem, the research field of time-resolved volumetric magnetic resonance imaging (4D MRI) has evolved. However, current techniques are unsuitable for most interventional settings because they lack sufficient temporal and/or spatial resolution or have long acquisition times. In this work, we propose a novel approach for real-time, high-resolution 4D MRI with large fields of view for MR-guided interventions. To this end, we trained a convolutional neural network (CNN) end-to-end to predict a 3D liver MRI that correctly predicts the liver's respiratory state from a live 2D navigator MRI of a subject. Our method can be used in two ways: First, it can reconstruct near real-time 4D MRI with high quality and high resolution (209x128x128 matrix size with isotropic 1.8mm voxel size and 0.6s/volume) given a dynamic interventional 2D navigator slice for guidance during an intervention. Second, it can be used for retrospective 4D reconstruction with a temporal resolution of below 0.2s/volume for motion analysis and use in radiation therapy. We report a mean target registration error (TRE) of 1.19 $\pm$0.74mm, which is below voxel size. We compare our results with a state-of-the-art retrospective 4D MRI reconstruction. Visual evaluation shows comparable quality. We show that small training sizes with short acquisition times down to 2min can already achieve promising results and 24min are sufficient for high quality results. Because our method can be readily combined with earlier methods, acquisition time can be further decreased while also limiting quality loss. We show that an end-to-end, deep learning formulation is highly promising for 4D MRI reconstruction.
Anneke Meyer, Suhita Ghosh, Daniel Schindele et al.
Various convolutional neural network (CNN) based concepts have been introduced for the prostate's automatic segmentation and its coarse subdivision into transition zone (TZ) and peripheral zone (PZ). However, when targeting a fine-grained segmentation of TZ, PZ, distal prostatic urethra (DPU) and the anterior fibromuscular stroma (AFS), the task becomes more challenging and has not yet been solved at the level of human performance. One reason might be the insufficient amount of labeled data for supervised training. Therefore, we propose to apply a semi-supervised learning (SSL) technique named uncertainty-aware temporal self-learning (UATS) to overcome the expensive and time-consuming manual ground truth labeling. We combine the SSL techniques temporal ensembling and uncertainty-guided self-learning to benefit from unlabeled images, which are often readily available. Our method significantly outperforms the supervised baseline and obtained a Dice coefficient (DC) of up to 78.9% , 87.3%, 75.3%, 50.6% for TZ, PZ, DPU and AFS, respectively. The obtained results are in the range of human inter-rater performance for all structures. Moreover, we investigate the method's robustness against noise and demonstrate the generalization capability for varying ratios of labeled data and on other challenging tasks, namely the hippocampus and skin lesion segmentation. UATS achieved superiority segmentation quality compared to the supervised baseline, particularly for minimal amounts of labeled data.
Oleksii Bashkanov, Anneke Meyer, Daniel Schindele et al.
Recent studies demonstrated the eligibility of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for solving the image registration problem. CNNs enable faster transformation estimation and greater generalization capability needed for better support during medical interventions. Conventional fully-supervised training requires a lot of high-quality ground truth data such as voxel-to-voxel transformations, which typically are attained in a too tedious and error-prone manner. In our work, we use weakly-supervised learning, which optimizes the model indirectly only via segmentation masks that are a more accessible ground truth than the deformation fields. Concerning the weak supervision, we investigate two segmentation similarity measures: multiscale Dice similarity coefficient (mDSC) and the similarity between segmentation-derived signed distance maps (SDMs). We show that the combination of mDSC and SDM similarity measures results in a more accurate and natural transformation pattern together with a stronger gradient coverage. Furthermore, we introduce an auxiliary input to the neural network for the prior information about the prostate location in the MR sequence, which mostly is available preoperatively. This approach significantly outperforms the standard two-input models. With weakly labelled MR-TRUS prostate data, we showed registration quality comparable to the state-of-the-art deep learning-based method.
Victor Chernozhukov, Denis Chetverikov, Mert Demirer et al.
Chernozhukov, Chetverikov, Demirer, Duflo, Hansen, and Newey (2016) provide a generic double/de-biased machine learning (DML) approach for obtaining valid inferential statements about focal parameters, using Neyman-orthogonal scores and cross-fitting, in settings where nuisance parameters are estimated using a new generation of nonparametric fitting methods for high-dimensional data, called machine learning methods. In this note, we illustrate the application of this method in the context of estimating average treatment effects (ATE) and average treatment effects on the treated (ATTE) using observational data. A more general discussion and references to the existing literature are available in Chernozhukov, Chetverikov, Demirer, Duflo, Hansen, and Newey (2016).
Victor Chernozhukov, Denis Chetverikov, Mert Demirer et al.
Most modern supervised statistical/machine learning (ML) methods are explicitly designed to solve prediction problems very well. Achieving this goal does not imply that these methods automatically deliver good estimators of causal parameters. Examples of such parameters include individual regression coefficients, average treatment effects, average lifts, and demand or supply elasticities. In fact, estimates of such causal parameters obtained via naively plugging ML estimators into estimating equations for such parameters can behave very poorly due to the regularization bias. Fortunately, this regularization bias can be removed by solving auxiliary prediction problems via ML tools. Specifically, we can form an orthogonal score for the target low-dimensional parameter by combining auxiliary and main ML predictions. The score is then used to build a de-biased estimator of the target parameter which typically will converge at the fastest possible 1/root(n) rate and be approximately unbiased and normal, and from which valid confidence intervals for these parameters of interest may be constructed. The resulting method thus could be called a "double ML" method because it relies on estimating primary and auxiliary predictive models. In order to avoid overfitting, our construction also makes use of the K-fold sample splitting, which we call cross-fitting. This allows us to use a very broad set of ML predictive methods in solving the auxiliary and main prediction problems, such as random forest, lasso, ridge, deep neural nets, boosted trees, as well as various hybrids and aggregators of these methods.
Alexandre Belloni, Victor Chernozhukov, Ivan Fernández-Val et al.
In this paper, we provide efficient estimators and honest confidence bands for a variety of treatment effects including local average (LATE) and local quantile treatment effects (LQTE) in data-rich environments. We can handle very many control variables, endogenous receipt of treatment, heterogeneous treatment effects, and function-valued outcomes. Our framework covers the special case of exogenous receipt of treatment, either conditional on controls or unconditionally as in randomized control trials. In the latter case, our approach produces efficient estimators and honest bands for (functional) average treatment effects (ATE) and quantile treatment effects (QTE). To make informative inference possible, we assume that key reduced form predictive relationships are approximately sparse. This assumption allows the use of regularization and selection methods to estimate those relations, and we provide methods for post-regularization and post-selection inference that are uniformly valid (honest) across a wide-range of models. We show that a key ingredient enabling honest inference is the use of orthogonal or doubly robust moment conditions in estimating certain reduced form functional parameters. We illustrate the use of the proposed methods with an application to estimating the effect of 401(k) eligibility and participation on accumulated assets.