V. Sai Muthukumar

Jonathan N. Lee, Weihao Kong, Aldo Pacchiano et al.

In many bandit problems, the maximal reward achievable by a policy is often unknown in advance. We consider the problem of estimating the optimal policy value in the sublinear data regime before the optimal policy is even learnable. We refer to this as $V^*$ estimation. It was recently shown that fast $V^*$ estimation is possible but only in disjoint linear bandits with Gaussian covariates. Whether this is possible for more realistic context distributions has remained an open and important question for tasks such as model selection. In this paper, we first provide lower bounds showing that this general problem is hard. However, under stronger assumptions, we give an algorithm and analysis proving that $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{d})$ sublinear estimation of $V^*$ is indeed information-theoretically possible, where $d$ is the dimension. We then present a more practical, computationally efficient algorithm that estimates a problem-dependent upper bound on $V^*$ that holds for general distributions and is tight when the context distribution is Gaussian. We prove our algorithm requires only $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{d})$ samples to estimate the upper bound. We use this upper bound and the estimator to obtain novel and improved guarantees for several applications in bandit model selection and testing for treatment effects.

Ashwin Pananjady, Vidya Muthukumar, Andrew Thangaraj

We study the problem of estimating the stationary mass -- also called the unigram mass -- that is missing from a single trajectory of a discrete-time, ergodic Markov chain. This problem has several applications -- for example, estimating the stationary missing mass is critical for accurately smoothing probability estimates in sequence models. While the classical Good--Turing estimator from the 1950s has appealing properties for i.i.d. data, it is known to be biased in the Markovian setting, and other heuristic estimators do not come equipped with guarantees. Operating in the general setting in which the size of the state space may be much larger than the length $n$ of the trajectory, we develop a linear-runtime estimator called Windowed Good--Turing (WingIt) and show that its risk decays as $\widetilde{O}(\mathsf{T_{mix}}/n)$, where $\mathsf{T_{mix}}$ denotes the mixing time of the chain in total variation distance. Notably, this rate is independent of the size of the state space and minimax-optimal up to a logarithmic factor in $n / \mathsf{T_{mix}}$. We also present an upper bound on the variance of the missing mass random variable, which may be of independent interest. We extend our estimator to approximate the stationary mass placed on elements occurring with small frequency in the trajectory. Finally, we demonstrate the efficacy of our estimators both in simulations on canonical chains and on sequences constructed from natural language text.

Kuo-Wei Lai, Vidya Muthukumar

Overparameterized models that achieve zero training error are observed to generalize well on average, but degrade in performance when faced with data that is under-represented in the training sample. In this work, we study an overparameterized Gaussian mixture model imbued with a spurious feature, and sharply analyze the in-distribution and out-of-distribution test error of a cost-sensitive interpolating solution that incorporates "importance weights". Compared to recent work Wang et al. (2021), Behnia et al. (2022), our analysis is sharp with matching upper and lower bounds, and significantly weakens required assumptions on data dimensionality. Our error characterizations also apply to any choice of importance weights and unveil a novel tradeoff between worst-case robustness to distribution shift and average accuracy as a function of the importance weight magnitude.

Andrew D. McRae, Santhosh Karnik, Mark A. Davenport et al.

Overparametrized neural networks tend to perfectly fit noisy training data yet generalize well on test data. Inspired by this empirical observation, recent work has sought to understand this phenomenon of benign overfitting or harmless interpolation in the much simpler linear model. Previous theoretical work critically assumes that either the data features are statistically independent or the input data is high-dimensional; this precludes general nonparametric settings with structured feature maps. In this paper, we present a general and flexible framework for upper bounding regression and classification risk in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. A key contribution is that our framework describes precise sufficient conditions on the data Gram matrix under which harmless interpolation occurs. Our results recover prior independent-features results (with a much simpler analysis), but they furthermore show that harmless interpolation can occur in more general settings such as features that are a bounded orthonormal system. Furthermore, our results show an asymptotic separation between classification and regression performance in a manner that was previously only shown for Gaussian features.

Vidya Muthukumar, Akshay Krishnamurthy

Model selection in contextual bandits is an important complementary problem to regret minimization with respect to a fixed model class. We consider the simplest non-trivial instance of model-selection: distinguishing a simple multi-armed bandit problem from a linear contextual bandit problem. Even in this instance, current state-of-the-art methods explore in a suboptimal manner and require strong "feature-diversity" conditions. In this paper, we introduce new algorithms that a) explore in a data-adaptive manner, and b) provide model selection guarantees of the form $\mathcal{O}(d^α T^{1- α})$ with no feature diversity conditions whatsoever, where $d$ denotes the dimension of the linear model and $T$ denotes the total number of rounds. The first algorithm enjoys a "best-of-both-worlds" property, recovering two prior results that hold under distinct distributional assumptions, simultaneously. The second removes distributional assumptions altogether, expanding the scope for tractable model selection. Our approach extends to model selection among nested linear contextual bandits under some additional assumptions.

Yehuda Dar, Vidya Muthukumar, Richard G. Baraniuk

The rapid recent progress in machine learning (ML) has raised a number of scientific questions that challenge the longstanding dogma of the field. One of the most important riddles is the good empirical generalization of overparameterized models. Overparameterized models are excessively complex with respect to the size of the training dataset, which results in them perfectly fitting (i.e., interpolating) the training data, which is usually noisy. Such interpolation of noisy data is traditionally associated with detrimental overfitting, and yet a wide range of interpolating models -- from simple linear models to deep neural networks -- have recently been observed to generalize extremely well on fresh test data. Indeed, the recently discovered double descent phenomenon has revealed that highly overparameterized models often improve over the best underparameterized model in test performance. Understanding learning in this overparameterized regime requires new theory and foundational empirical studies, even for the simplest case of the linear model. The underpinnings of this understanding have been laid in very recent analyses of overparameterized linear regression and related statistical learning tasks, which resulted in precise analytic characterizations of double descent. This paper provides a succinct overview of this emerging theory of overparameterized ML (henceforth abbreviated as TOPML) that explains these recent findings through a statistical signal processing perspective. We emphasize the unique aspects that define the TOPML research area as a subfield of modern ML theory and outline interesting open questions that remain.

Wenshuo Guo, Kumar Krishna Agrawal, Aditya Grover et al.

We introduce the "inverse bandit" problem of estimating the rewards of a multi-armed bandit instance from observing the learning process of a low-regret demonstrator. Existing approaches to the related problem of inverse reinforcement learning assume the execution of an optimal policy, and thereby suffer from an identifiability issue. In contrast, we propose to leverage the demonstrator's behavior en route to optimality, and in particular, the exploration phase, for reward estimation. We begin by establishing a general information-theoretic lower bound under this paradigm that applies to any demonstrator algorithm, which characterizes a fundamental tradeoff between reward estimation and the amount of exploration of the demonstrator. Then, we develop simple and efficient reward estimators for upper-confidence-based demonstrator algorithms that attain the optimal tradeoff, showing in particular that consistent reward estimation -- free of identifiability issues -- is possible under our paradigm. Extensive simulations on both synthetic and semi-synthetic data corroborate our theoretical results.

Jonathan N. Lee, Aldo Pacchiano, Vidya Muthukumar et al.

Deep reinforcement learning has achieved impressive successes yet often requires a very large amount of interaction data. This result is perhaps unsurprising, as using complicated function approximation often requires more data to fit, and early theoretical results on linear Markov decision processes provide regret bounds that scale with the dimension of the linear approximation. Ideally, we would like to automatically identify the minimal dimension of the approximation that is sufficient to encode an optimal policy. Towards this end, we consider the problem of model selection in RL with function approximation, given a set of candidate RL algorithms with known regret guarantees. The learner's goal is to adapt to the complexity of the optimal algorithm without knowing it \textit{a priori}. We present a meta-algorithm that successively rejects increasingly complex models using a simple statistical test. Given at least one candidate that satisfies realizability, we prove the meta-algorithm adapts to the optimal complexity with $\tilde{O}(L^{5/6} T^{2/3})$ regret compared to the optimal candidate's $\tilde{O}(\sqrt T)$ regret, where $T$ is the number of episodes and $L$ is the number of algorithms. The dimension and horizon dependencies remain optimal with respect to the best candidate, and our meta-algorithmic approach is flexible to incorporate multiple candidate algorithms and models. Finally, we show that the meta-algorithm automatically admits significantly improved instance-dependent regret bounds that depend on the gaps between the maximal values attainable by the candidates.

Vidya Muthukumar, Adhyyan Narang, Vignesh Subramanian et al.

We compare classification and regression tasks in an overparameterized linear model with Gaussian features. On the one hand, we show that with sufficient overparameterization all training points are support vectors: solutions obtained by least-squares minimum-norm interpolation, typically used for regression, are identical to those produced by the hard-margin support vector machine (SVM) that minimizes the hinge loss, typically used for training classifiers. On the other hand, we show that there exist regimes where these interpolating solutions generalize well when evaluated by the 0-1 test loss function, but do not generalize if evaluated by the square loss function, i.e. they approach the null risk. Our results demonstrate the very different roles and properties of loss functions used at the training phase (optimization) and the testing phase (generalization).

Vidya Muthukumar, Kailas Vodrahalli, Vignesh Subramanian et al.

A continuing mystery in understanding the empirical success of deep neural networks is their ability to achieve zero training error and generalize well, even when the training data is noisy and there are more parameters than data points. We investigate this overparameterized regime in linear regression, where all solutions that minimize training error interpolate the data, including noise. We characterize the fundamental generalization (mean-squared) error of any interpolating solution in the presence of noise, and show that this error decays to zero with the number of features. Thus, overparameterization can be explicitly beneficial in ensuring harmless interpolation of noise. We discuss two root causes for poor generalization that are complementary in nature -- signal "bleeding" into a large number of alias features, and overfitting of noise by parsimonious feature selectors. For the sparse linear model with noise, we provide a hybrid interpolating scheme that mitigates both these issues and achieves order-optimal MSE over all possible interpolating solutions.

Ashwin Pananjady, Cheng Mao, Vidya Muthukumar et al.

Pairwise comparison data arises in many domains, including tournament rankings, web search, and preference elicitation. Given noisy comparisons of a fixed subset of pairs of items, we study the problem of estimating the underlying comparison probabilities under the assumption of strong stochastic transitivity (SST). We also consider the noisy sorting subclass of the SST model. We show that when the assignment of items to the topology is arbitrary, these permutation-based models, unlike their parametric counterparts, do not admit consistent estimation for most comparison topologies used in practice. We then demonstrate that consistent estimation is possible when the assignment of items to the topology is randomized, thus establishing a dichotomy between worst-case and average-case designs. We propose two estimators in the average-case setting and analyze their risk, showing that it depends on the comparison topology only through the degree sequence of the topology. The rates achieved by these estimators are shown to be optimal for a large class of graphs. Our results are corroborated by simulations on multiple comparison topologies.