Stefano Pasquali

Dhruv Desai, Ashmita Dhiman, Tushar Sharma et al.

Mutual fund categorization has become a standard tool for the investment management industry and is extensively used by allocators for portfolio construction and manager selection, as well as by fund managers for peer analysis and competitive positioning. As a result, a (unintended) miscategorization or lack of precision can significantly impact allocation decisions and investment fund managers. Here, we aim to quantify the effect of miscategorization of funds utilizing a machine learning based approach. We formulate the problem of miscategorization of funds as a distance-based outlier detection problem, where the outliers are the data-points that are far from the rest of the data-points in the given feature space. We implement and employ a Random Forest (RF) based method of distance metric learning, and compute the so-called class-wise outlier measures for each data-point to identify outliers in the data. We test our implementation on various publicly available data sets, and then apply it to mutual fund data. We show that there is a strong relationship between the outlier measures of the funds and their future returns and discuss the implications of our findings.

Reetu Raj Harsh, Bhaskarjit Sarmah, Stefano Pasquali

As Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in safety-critical applications, robust content moderation becomes essential. We present a comprehensive evaluation of 14 open-source safety guard models on a curated benchmark of 79,331 samples spanning 8 NIST AI Risk Framework safety categories. Our benchmark aggregates four diverse datasets (HarmBench, StrongREJECT, RealToxicityPrompts, and BeaverTails), filtered to focus exclusively on safety-relevant content (violence, hate speech, harassment, sexual content, suicide/self-harm, profanity, threats, and health misinformation). We find that recall is the critical metric for safety applications, as missing harmful content poses greater risk than false positives. Our evaluation reveals surprising results: Qwen Guard (4B parameters) achieves the highest recall (83.97%) while larger models like Llama Guard (12B) and GPT-OSS Safeguard (20B) exhibit conservative behavior, missing up to 75% of unsafe content. We demonstrate that model size does not correlate with safety detection performance and that general-purpose guard models outperform specialized ones. These findings provide practical guidance for selecting safety guard models in production deployments.

Bhaskarjit Sarmah, Benika Hall, Rohan Rao et al.

Extraction and interpretation of intricate information from unstructured text data arising in financial applications, such as earnings call transcripts, present substantial challenges to large language models (LLMs) even using the current best practices to use Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) (referred to as VectorRAG techniques which utilize vector databases for information retrieval) due to challenges such as domain specific terminology and complex formats of the documents. We introduce a novel approach based on a combination, called HybridRAG, of the Knowledge Graphs (KGs) based RAG techniques (called GraphRAG) and VectorRAG techniques to enhance question-answer (Q&A) systems for information extraction from financial documents that is shown to be capable of generating accurate and contextually relevant answers. Using experiments on a set of financial earning call transcripts documents which come in the form of Q&A format, and hence provide a natural set of pairs of ground-truth Q&As, we show that HybridRAG which retrieves context from both vector database and KG outperforms both traditional VectorRAG and GraphRAG individually when evaluated at both the retrieval and generation stages in terms of retrieval accuracy and answer generation. The proposed technique has applications beyond the financial domain

Guanchao Feng, Dhruv Desai, Stefano Pasquali et al.

In many real-world classification or recognition tasks, it is often difficult to collect training examples that exhaust all possible classes due to, for example, incomplete knowledge during training or ever changing regimes. Therefore, samples from unknown/novel classes may be encountered in testing/deployment. In such scenarios, the classifiers should be able to i) perform classification on known classes, and at the same time, ii) identify samples from unknown classes. This is known as open-set recognition. Although random forest has been an extremely successful framework as a general-purpose classification (and regression) method, in practice, it usually operates under the closed-set assumption and is not able to identify samples from new classes when run out of the box. In this work, we propose a novel approach to enabling open-set recognition capability for random forest classifiers by incorporating distance metric learning and distance-based open-set recognition. The proposed method is validated on both synthetic and real-world datasets. The experimental results indicate that the proposed approach outperforms state-of-the-art distance-based open-set recognition methods.

Bhaskarjit Sarmah, Tianjie Zhu, Dhagash Mehta et al.

For a financial analyst, the question and answer (Q\&A) segment of the company financial report is a crucial piece of information for various analysis and investment decisions. However, extracting valuable insights from the Q\&A section has posed considerable challenges as the conventional methods such as detailed reading and note-taking lack scalability and are susceptible to human errors, and Optical Character Recognition (OCR) and similar techniques encounter difficulties in accurately processing unstructured transcript text, often missing subtle linguistic nuances that drive investor decisions. Here, we demonstrate the utilization of Large Language Models (LLMs) to efficiently and rapidly extract information from earnings report transcripts while ensuring high accuracy transforming the extraction process as well as reducing hallucination by combining retrieval-augmented generation technique as well as metadata. We evaluate the outcomes of various LLMs with and without using our proposed approach based on various objective metrics for evaluating Q\&A systems, and empirically demonstrate superiority of our method.

Nathalia Castellanos, Dhruv Desai, Sebastian Frank et al.

Peer analysis is a critical component of investment management, often relying on expert-provided categorization systems. These systems' consistency is questioned when they do not align with cohorts from unsupervised clustering algorithms optimized for various metrics. We investigate whether unsupervised clustering can reproduce ground truth classes in a labeled dataset, showing that success depends on feature selection and the chosen distance metric. Using toy datasets and fund categorization as real-world examples we demonstrate that accurately reproducing ground truth classes is challenging. We also highlight the limitations of standard clustering evaluation metrics in identifying the optimal number of clusters relative to the ground truth classes. We then show that if appropriate features are available in the dataset, and a proper distance metric is known (e.g., using a supervised Random Forest-based distance metric learning method), then an unsupervised clustering can indeed reproduce the ground truth classes as distinct clusters.

Gregory Yampolsky, Dhruv Desai, Mingshu Li et al.

The explainability of black-box machine learning algorithms, commonly known as Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI), has become crucial for financial and other regulated industrial applications due to regulatory requirements and the need for transparency in business practices. Among the various paradigms of XAI, Explainable Case-Based Reasoning (XCBR) stands out as a pragmatic approach that elucidates the output of a model by referencing actual examples from the data used to train or test the model. Despite its potential, XCBR has been relatively underexplored for many algorithms such as tree-based models until recently. We start by observing that most XCBR methods are defined based on the distance metric learned by the algorithm. By utilizing a recently proposed technique to extract the distance metric learned by Random Forests (RFs), which is both geometry- and accuracy-preserving, we investigate various XCBR methods. These methods amount to identify special points from the training datasets, such as prototypes, critics, counter-factuals, and semi-factuals, to explain the predictions for a given query of the RF. We evaluate these special points using various evaluation metrics to assess their explanatory power and effectiveness.

Joshua Rosaler, Dhruv Desai, Bhaskarjit Sarmah et al.

We initiate a novel approach to explain the predictions and out of sample performance of random forest (RF) regression and classification models by exploiting the fact that any RF can be mathematically formulated as an adaptive weighted K nearest-neighbors model. Specifically, we employ a recent result that, for both regression and classification tasks, any RF prediction can be rewritten exactly as a weighted sum of the training targets, where the weights are RF proximities between the corresponding pairs of data points. We show that this linearity facilitates a local notion of explainability of RF predictions that generates attributions for any model prediction across observations in the training set, and thereby complements established feature-based methods like SHAP, which generate attributions for a model prediction across input features. We show how this proximity-based approach to explainability can be used in conjunction with SHAP to explain not just the model predictions, but also out-of-sample performance, in the sense that proximities furnish a novel means of assessing when a given model prediction is more or less likely to be correct. We demonstrate this approach in the modeling of US corporate bond prices and returns in both regression and classification cases.

Fabrizio Dimino, Krati Saxena, Bhaskarjit Sarmah et al.

Large Language Models are increasingly adopted in financial applications to support investment workflows. However, prior studies have seldom examined how these models reflect biases related to firm size, sector, or financial characteristics, which can significantly impact decision-making. This paper addresses this gap by focusing on representation bias in open-source Qwen models. We propose a balanced round-robin prompting method over approximately 150 U.S. equities, applying constrained decoding and token-logit aggregation to derive firm-level confidence scores across financial contexts. Using statistical tests and variance analysis, we find that firm size and valuation consistently increase model confidence, while risk factors tend to decrease it. Confidence varies significantly across sectors, with the Technology sector showing the greatest variability. When models are prompted for specific financial categories, their confidence rankings best align with fundamental data, moderately with technical signals, and least with growth indicators. These results highlight representation bias in Qwen models and motivate sector-aware calibration and category-conditioned evaluation protocols for safe and fair financial LLM deployment.

Fabrizio Dimino, Bhaskarjit Sarmah, Stefano Pasquali

The rapid adoption of large language models (LLMs) in financial services introduces new operational, regulatory, and security risks. Yet most red-teaming benchmarks remain domain-agnostic and fail to capture failure modes specific to regulated BFSI settings, where harmful behavior can be elicited through legally or professionally plausible framing. We propose a risk-aware evaluation framework for LLM security failures in Banking, Financial Services, and Insurance (BFSI), combining a domain-specific taxonomy of financial harms, an automated multi-round red-teaming pipeline, and an ensemble-based judging protocol. We introduce the Risk-Adjusted Harm Score (RAHS), a risk-sensitive metric that goes beyond success rates by quantifying the operational severity of disclosures, accounting for mitigation signals, and leveraging inter-judge agreement. Across diverse models, we find that higher decoding stochasticity and sustained adaptive interaction not only increase jailbreak success, but also drive systematic escalation toward more severe and operationally actionable financial disclosures. These results expose limitations of single-turn, domain-agnostic security evaluation and motivate risk-sensitive assessment under prolonged adversarial pressure for real-world BFSI deployment.

Mahesh Kumar, Bhaskarjit Sarmah, Stefano Pasquali

As organizations increasingly integrate AI-powered question-answering systems into financial information systems for compliance, risk assessment, and decision support, ensuring the factual accuracy of AI-generated outputs becomes a critical engineering challenge. Current Knowledge Graph (KG)-augmented QA systems lack systematic mechanisms to detect hallucinations - factually incorrect outputs that undermine reliability and user trust. We introduce FinBench-QA-Hallucination, a benchmark for evaluating hallucination detection methods in KG-augmented financial QA over SEC 10-K filings. The dataset contains 755 annotated examples from 300 pages, each labeled for groundedness using a conservative evidence-linkage protocol requiring support from both textual chunks and extracted relational triplets. We evaluate six detection approaches - LLM judges, fine-tuned classifiers, Natural Language Inference (NLI) models, span detectors, and embedding-based methods under two conditions: with and without KG triplets. Results show that LLM-based judges and embedding approaches achieve the highest performance (F1: 0.82-0.86) under clean conditions. However, most methods degrade significantly when noisy triplets are introduced, with Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC) dropping 44-84 percent, while embedding methods remain relatively robust with only 9 percent degradation. Statistical tests (Cochran's Q and McNemar) confirm significant performance differences (p < 0.001). Our findings highlight vulnerabilities in current KG-augmented systems and provide insights for building reliable financial information systems, where hallucinations can lead to regulatory violations and flawed decisions. The benchmark also offers a framework for integrating AI reliability evaluation into information system design across other high-stakes domains such as healthcare, legal, and government.

Bhaskarjit Sarmah, Kriti Dutta, Anna Grigoryan et al.

We argue that the Declarative Self-improving Python (DSPy) optimizers are a way to align the large language model (LLM) prompts and their evaluations to the human annotations. We present a comparative analysis of five teleprompter algorithms, namely, Cooperative Prompt Optimization (COPRO), Multi-Stage Instruction Prompt Optimization (MIPRO), BootstrapFewShot, BootstrapFewShot with Optuna, and K-Nearest Neighbor Few Shot, within the DSPy framework with respect to their ability to align with human evaluations. As a concrete example, we focus on optimizing the prompt to align hallucination detection (using LLM as a judge) to human annotated ground truth labels for a publicly available benchmark dataset. Our experiments demonstrate that optimized prompts can outperform various benchmark methods to detect hallucination, and certain telemprompters outperform the others in at least these experiments.

Tianjiao Zhao, Jingrao Lyu, Stokes Jones et al.

The field of artificial intelligence (AI) agents is evolving rapidly, driven by the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) to autonomously perform and refine tasks with human-like efficiency and adaptability. In this context, multi-agent collaboration has emerged as a promising approach, enabling multiple AI agents to work together to solve complex challenges. This study investigates the application of role-based multi-agent systems to support stock selection in equity research and portfolio management. We present a comprehensive analysis performed by a team of specialized agents and evaluate their stock-picking performance against established benchmarks under varying levels of risk tolerance. Furthermore, we examine the advantages and limitations of employing multi-agent frameworks in equity analysis, offering critical insights into their practical efficacy and implementation challenges.

Bhaskarjit Sarmah, Mingshu Li, Jingrao Lyu et al.

To ensure and monitor large language models (LLMs) reliably, various evaluation metrics have been proposed in the literature. However, there is little research on prescribing a methodology to identify a robust threshold on these metrics even though there are many serious implications of an incorrect choice of the thresholds during deployment of the LLMs. Translating the traditional model risk management (MRM) guidelines within regulated industries such as the financial industry, we propose a step-by-step recipe for picking a threshold for a given LLM evaluation metric. We emphasize that such a methodology should start with identifying the risks of the LLM application under consideration and risk tolerance of the stakeholders. We then propose concrete and statistically rigorous procedures to determine a threshold for the given LLM evaluation metric using available ground-truth data. As a concrete example to demonstrate the proposed methodology at work, we employ it on the Faithfulness metric, as implemented in various publicly available libraries, using the publicly available HaluBench dataset. We also lay a foundation for creating systematic approaches to select thresholds, not only for LLMs but for any GenAI applications.

Alejandro Michel, Abhinav Arun, Bhaskarjit Sarmah et al.

Portfolio managers rely on correlation-based analysis and heuristic methods that fail to capture true causal relationships driving performance. We present a hybrid framework that integrates statistical causal discovery algorithms with domain knowledge from two complementary sources: a financial knowledge graph extracted from SEC 10-K filings and large language model reasoning. Our approach systematically enhances three representative causal discovery paradigms, constraint-based (PC), score-based (GES), and continuous optimization (NOTEARS), by encoding knowledge graph constraints algorithmically and leveraging LLM conceptual reasoning for hypothesis generation. Evaluated on a synthetic financial dataset of 500 firms across 18 variables, our KG+LLM-enhanced methods demonstrate consistent improvements across all three algorithms: PC (F1: 0.622 vs. 0.459 baseline, +36%), GES (F1: 0.735 vs. 0.367, +100%), and NOTEARS (F1: 0.759 vs. 0.163, +366%). The framework enables reliable scenario analysis with mean absolute error of 0.003610 for counterfactual predictions and perfect directional accuracy for intervention effects. It also addresses critical limitations of existing methods by grounding statistical discoveries in financial domain expertise while maintaining empirical validation, providing portfolio managers with the causal foundation necessary for proactive risk management and strategic decision-making in dynamic market environments.

Fabrizio Dimino, Abhinav Arun, Bhaskarjit Sarmah et al.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly being used to extract structured knowledge from unstructured financial text. Although prior studies have explored various extraction methods, there is no universal benchmark or unified evaluation framework for the construction of financial knowledge graphs (KG). We introduce FinReflectKG - EvalBench, a benchmark and evaluation framework for KG extraction from SEC 10-K filings. Building on the agentic and holistic evaluation principles of FinReflectKG - a financial KG linking audited triples to source chunks from S&P 100 filings and supporting single-pass, multi-pass, and reflection-agent-based extraction modes - EvalBench implements a deterministic commit-then-justify judging protocol with explicit bias controls, mitigating position effects, leniency, verbosity and world-knowledge reliance. Each candidate triple is evaluated with binary judgments of faithfulness, precision, and relevance, while comprehensiveness is assessed on a three-level ordinal scale (good, partial, bad) at the chunk level. Our findings suggest that, when equipped with explicit bias controls, LLM-as-Judge protocols provide a reliable and cost-efficient alternative to human annotation, while also enabling structured error analysis. Reflection-based extraction emerges as the superior approach, achieving best performance in comprehensiveness, precision, and relevance, while single-pass extraction maintains the highest faithfulness. By aggregating these complementary dimensions, FinReflectKG - EvalBench enables fine-grained benchmarking and bias-aware evaluation, advancing transparency and governance in financial AI applications.

Abhinav Arun, Reetu Raj Harsh, Bhaskarjit Sarmah et al.

Multi-hop reasoning over financial disclosures is often a retrieval problem before it becomes a reasoning or generation problem: relevant facts are dispersed across sections, filings, companies, and years, and LLMs often expend excessive tokens navigating noisy context. Without precise Knowledge Graph (KG)-guided selection of relevant context, even strong reasoning models either fail to answer or consume excessive tokens, whereas KG-linked evidence enables models to focus their reasoning on composing already retrieved facts. We present FinReflectKG - MultiHop, a benchmark built on FinReflectKG, a temporally indexed financial KG that links audited triples to source chunks from S&P 100 filings (2022-2024). Mining frequent 2-3 hop subgraph patterns across sectors (via GICS taxonomy), we generate financial analyst style questions with exact supporting evidence from the KG. A two-phase pipeline first creates QA pairs via pattern-specific prompts, followed by a multi-criteria quality control evaluation to ensure QA validity. We then evaluate three controlled retrieval scenarios: (S1) precise KG-linked paths; (S2) text-only page windows centered on relevant text spans; and (S3) relevant page windows with randomizations and distractors. Across both reasoning and non-reasoning models, KG-guided precise retrieval yields substantial gains on the FinReflectKG - MultiHop QA benchmark dataset, boosting correctness scores by approximately 24 percent while reducing token utilization by approximately 84.5 percent compared to the page window setting, which reflects the traditional vector retrieval paradigm. Spanning intra-document, inter-year, and cross-company scopes, our work underscores the pivotal role of knowledge graphs in efficiently connecting evidence for multi-hop financial QA. We also release a curated subset of the benchmark (555 QA Pairs) to catalyze further research.

Avinash Kumar Singh, Bhaskarjit Sarmah, Stefano Pasquali

Text-to-SQL, the task of translating natural language questions into SQL queries, has long been a central challenge in NLP. While progress has been significant, applying it to the financial domain remains especially difficult due to complex schema, domain-specific terminology, and high stakes of error. Despite this, there is no dedicated large-scale financial dataset to advance research, creating a critical gap. To address this, we introduce a curated financial dataset (FINCH) comprising 292 tables and 75,725 natural language-SQL pairs, enabling both fine-tuning and rigorous evaluation. Building on this resource, we benchmark reasoning models and language models of varying scales, providing a systematic analysis of their strengths and limitations in financial Text-to-SQL tasks. Finally, we propose a finance-oriented evaluation metric (FINCH Score) that captures nuances overlooked by existing measures, offering a more faithful assessment of model performance.

Ryan Samson, Adrian Banner, Luca Candelori et al.

We introduce a novel proxy for firm linkages, Characteristic Vector Linkages (CVLs). We use this concept to estimate firm linkages, first through Euclidean similarity, and then by applying Quantum Cognition Machine Learning (QCML) to similarity learning. We demonstrate that both methods can be used to construct profitable momentum spillover trading strategies, but QCML similarity outperforms the simpler Euclidean similarity.

Chen Ling, Xujiang Zhao, Jiaying Lu et al.

Large language models (LLMs) have significantly advanced the field of natural language processing (NLP), providing a highly useful, task-agnostic foundation for a wide range of applications. However, directly applying LLMs to solve sophisticated problems in specific domains meets many hurdles, caused by the heterogeneity of domain data, the sophistication of domain knowledge, the uniqueness of domain objectives, and the diversity of the constraints (e.g., various social norms, cultural conformity, religious beliefs, and ethical standards in the domain applications). Domain specification techniques are key to make large language models disruptive in many applications. Specifically, to solve these hurdles, there has been a notable increase in research and practices conducted in recent years on the domain specialization of LLMs. This emerging field of study, with its substantial potential for impact, necessitates a comprehensive and systematic review to better summarize and guide ongoing work in this area. In this article, we present a comprehensive survey on domain specification techniques for large language models, an emerging direction critical for large language model applications. First, we propose a systematic taxonomy that categorizes the LLM domain-specialization techniques based on the accessibility to LLMs and summarizes the framework for all the subcategories as well as their relations and differences to each other. Second, we present an extensive taxonomy of critical application domains that can benefit dramatically from specialized LLMs, discussing their practical significance and open challenges. Last, we offer our insights into the current research status and future trends in this area.