Pascal Bauer

Miru Hong, Minho Lee, Geonhee Jo et al.

Evaluating football player transfers is challenging because player actions depend strongly on tactical systems, teammates, and match context. Despite this complexity, recruitment decisions often rely on static statistics and subjective expert judgment, which do not fully account for these contextual factors. This limitation stems largely from the absence of counterfactual simulation mechanisms capable of predicting outcomes in hypothetical scenarios. To address these challenges, we propose ScoutGPT, a generative model that treats football match events as sequential tokens within a language modeling framework. Utilizing a NanoGPT-based Transformer architecture trained on next-token prediction, ScoutGPT learns the dynamics of match event sequences to simulate event sequences under hypothetical lineups, demonstrating superior predictive performance compared to existing baseline models. Leveraging this capability, the model employs Monte Carlo sampling to enable counterfactual simulation, allowing for the assessment of unobserved scenarios. Experiments on K League data show that simulated player transfers lead to measurable changes in offensive progression and goal probabilities, indicating that ScoutGPT captures player-specific impact beyond traditional static metrics.

Geonhee Jo, Mingu Kang, Kangmin Lee et al.

Event stream data is a critical resource for fine-grained analysis across various domains, including financial transactions, system operations, and sports. In sports, it is actively used for fine-grained analyses such as quantifying player contributions and identifying tactical patterns. However, the reliability of these models is fundamentally limited by inherent data quality issues that cause logical inconsistencies (e.g., incorrect event ordering or missing events). To this end, this study proposes VERSA (Verified Event Data Format for Reliable Soccer Analytics), a systematic verification framework that ensures the integrity of event stream data within the soccer domain. VERSA is based on a state-transition model that defines valid event sequences, thereby enabling the automatic detection and correction of anomalous patterns within the event stream data. Notably, our examination of event data from the K League 1 (2024 season), provided by Bepro, detected that 18.81% of all recorded events exhibited logical inconsistencies. Addressing such integrity issues, our experiments demonstrate that VERSA significantly enhances cross-provider consistency, ensuring stable and unified data representation across heterogeneous sources. Furthermore, we demonstrate that data refined by VERSA significantly improves the robustness and performance of a downstream task called VAEP, which evaluates player contributions. These results highlight that the verification process is highly effective in increasing the reliability of data-driven analysis.

Miru Hong, Minho Lee, Geonhee Jo et al.

Transfers play a pivotal role in shaping a football club's success, yet forecasting whether a transfer will succeed remains difficult due to the strong context-dependence of on-field performance. Existing evaluation practices often rely on static summary statistics or post-hoc value models, which fail to capture how a player's contribution adapts to a new tactical environment or different teammates. To address this gap, we introduce EventGPT, a player-conditioned, value-aware next-event prediction model built on a GPT-style autoregressive transformer. Our model treats match play as a sequence of discrete tokens, jointly learning to predict the next on-ball action's type, location, timing, and its estimated residual On-Ball Value (rOBV) based on the preceding context and player identity. A key contribution of this framework is the ability to perform counterfactual simulations. By substituting learned player embeddings into new event sequences, we can simulate how a player's behavioral distribution and value profile would change when placed in a different team or tactical structure. Evaluated on five seasons of Premier League event data, EventGPT outperforms existing sequence-based baselines in next-event prediction accuracy and spatial precision. Furthermore, we demonstrate the model's practical utility for transfer analysis through case studies-such as comparing striker performance across different systems and identifying stylistic replacements for specific roles-showing that our approach provides a principled method for evaluating transfer fit.

Gabriel Anzer, Kilian Arnsmeyer, Pascal Bauer et al.

During football matches, a variety of different parties (e.g., companies) each collect (possibly overlapping) data about the match ranging from basic information (e.g., starting players) to detailed positional data. This data is provided to clubs, federations, and other organizations who are increasingly interested in leveraging this data to inform their decision making. Unfortunately, analyzing such data pose significant barriers because each provider may (1) collect different data, (2) use different specifications even within the same category of data, (3) represent the data differently, and (4) delivers the data in a different manner (e.g., file format, protocol). Consequently, working with these data requires a significant investment of time and money. The goal of this work is to propose a uniform and standardized format for football data called the Common Data Format (CDF). The CDF specifies a minimal schema for five types of match data: match sheet data, video footage, event data, tracking data, and match meta data. It aims to ensure that the provided data is clear, sufficiently contextualized (e.g., its provenance is clear), and complete such that it enables common downstream analysis tasks. Concretely, this paper will detail the technical specifications of the CDF, the representational choices that were made to help ensure the clarity of the provided data, and a concrete approach for delivering data in the CDF. This represents Version 1.0.0 of the CDF.