Ilze Amanda Auzina

Ilze Amanda Auzina, Çağatay Yıldız, Sara Magliacane et al.

Neural ordinary differential equations (NODEs) have been proven useful for learning non-linear dynamics of arbitrary trajectories. However, current NODE methods capture variations across trajectories only via the initial state value or by auto-regressive encoder updates. In this work, we introduce Modulated Neural ODEs (MoNODEs), a novel framework that sets apart dynamics states from underlying static factors of variation and improves the existing NODE methods. In particular, we introduce $\textit{time-invariant modulator variables}$ that are learned from the data. We incorporate our proposed framework into four existing NODE variants. We test MoNODE on oscillating systems, videos and human walking trajectories, where each trajectory has trajectory-specific modulation. Our framework consistently improves the existing model ability to generalize to new dynamic parameterizations and to perform far-horizon forecasting. In addition, we verify that the proposed modulator variables are informative of the true unknown factors of variation as measured by $R^2$ scores.

Ilze Amanda Auzina, Joschka Strüber, Sergio Hernández-Gutiérrez et al.

How can we train agents to navigate uncertainty over long horizons? In this work, we propose ΔBelief-RL, which leverages a language model's own intrinsic beliefs to reward intermediate progress. Our method utilizes the change in the probability an agent assigns to the target solution for credit assignment. By training on synthetic interaction data, ΔBelief-RL teaches information-seeking capabilities that consistently outperform purely outcome-based rewards for Reinforcement Learning, with improvements generalizing to out-of-distribution applications ranging from customer service to personalization. Notably, the performance continues to improve as we scale test-time interactions beyond the training horizon, with interaction-efficiency increasing even on Pass@k metrics. Overall, our work introduces a scalable training strategy for navigating uncertainty over a long-horizon, by enabling credit assignment to intermediate actions via intrinsic ΔBelief rewards.

Shashwat Goel, Joschka Struber, Ilze Amanda Auzina et al.

As Language Model (LM) capabilities advance, evaluating and supervising them at scale is getting harder for humans. There is hope that other language models can automate both these tasks, which we refer to as ''AI Oversight''. We study how model similarity affects both aspects of AI oversight by proposing Chance Adjusted Probabilistic Agreement (CAPA): a metric for LM similarity based on overlap in model mistakes. Using CAPA, we first show that LLM-as-a-judge scores favor models similar to the judge, generalizing recent self-preference results. Then, we study training on LM annotations, and find complementary knowledge between the weak supervisor and strong student model plays a crucial role in gains from ''weak-to-strong generalization''. As model capabilities increase, it becomes harder to find their mistakes, and we might defer more to AI oversight. However, we observe a concerning trend -- model mistakes are becoming more similar with increasing capabilities, pointing to risks from correlated failures. Our work underscores the importance of reporting and correcting for model similarity, especially in the emerging paradigm of AI oversight.

Ilze Amanda Auzina, Jakub M. Tomczak

Many real-life problems are represented as a black-box, i.e., the internal workings are inaccessible or a closed-form mathematical expression of the likelihood function cannot be defined. For continuous random variables likelihood-free inference problems can be solved by a group of methods under the name of Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). However, a similar approach for discrete random variables is yet to be formulated. Here, we aim to fill this research gap. We propose to use a population-based MCMC ABC framework. Further, we present a valid Markov kernel, and propose a new kernel that is inspired by Differential Evolution. We assess the proposed approach on a problem with the known likelihood function, namely, discovering the underlying diseases based on a QMR-DT Network, and three likelihood-free inference problems: (i) the QMR-DT Network with the unknown likelihood function, (ii) learning binary neural network, and (iii) Neural Architecture Search. The obtained results indicate the high potential of the proposed framework and the superiority of the new Markov kernel.