Nikolas Kuschnig

Lucas D. Konrad, Nikolas Kuschnig

Identifying most influential sets (MIS) - size-$k$ subsets whose removal maximally changes a target estimand - is typically infeasible because it requires searching over $\binom{n}{k}$ subsets. For estimands with linear-fractional leave-set-out effects, we show that MIS selection reduces to a one-parameter sequence of top-$k$ problems. Dinkelbach's method yields an algorithm with $\mathcal{O}(n)$ cost per iteration and finite termination. For fixed residualized inputs, the algorithm returns a globally optimal set for the univariate ratio objective, including the oracle-residualized partial linear model. With estimated nuisance functions, uniform denominator and generated-score stability imply approximation to the first-order oracle orthogonal-score objective; exact set recovery follows under a separation condition. Simulations and applications show that the method recovers exact MIS that were previously computationally inaccessible.

Lucas Darius Konrad, Nikolas Kuschnig

Small subsets of data with disproportionate influence on model outcomes can have dramatic impacts on conclusions, with a few data points sometimes overturning key findings. While recent work has developed methods to identify these most influential sets, no formal theory exists to determine when their influence reflects genuine problems rather than natural sampling variation. We address this gap by developing a principled framework for assessing the statistical significance of most influential sets. Our theoretical results characterize the extreme value distributions of maximal influence and enable rigorous hypothesis tests for excessive influence, replacing current ad-hoc sensitivity checks. We demonstrate the practical value of our approach through applications across economics, biology, and machine learning benchmarks.