Hongye Guo

Ruike Lyu, Anna Li, Jianxiao Wang et al.

In many countries, declining demand in energy-intensive industries such as cement, steel, and aluminum is leading to industrial overcapacity. Although industrial overcapacity is traditionally envisioned as problematic and resource-wasteful, it could unlock energy-intensive industries' flexibility in electricity use. Here, using China's aluminum smelting industry as a case study, we evaluate the system-level cost-benefit of retaining energy-intensive industries overcapacity for flexible electricity use in decarbonized energy systems. We find that overcapacity can enable aluminum smelters to adopt a seasonal operation paradigm, ceasing production during winter load peaks that are exacerbated by heating electrification and renewable seasonality. This seasonal operation paradigm could reduce the investment and operational costs of China's decarbonized electricity system by 23-32 billion CNY/year (11-15% of the aluminum smelting industry's product value), sufficient to offset the increased smelter maintenance and product storage costs associated with overcapacity. It may also provide an opportunity for seasonally complementary labor deployment across the aluminum smelting and thermal power generation sectors, offering a potential pathway for mitigating socio-economic disruptions caused by industrial restructuring and energy decarbonization.

Jinyu Liu, Hongye Guo, Qinghu Tang et al.

With the growing penetration of renewable energy resource, electricity market prices have exhibited greater volatility. Therefore, it is important for Energy Storage Systems(ESSs) to leverage the multidimensional nature of energy market bids to maximize profitability. However, current learning methods cannot fully utilize the high-dimensional price-quantity bids in the energy markets. To address this challenge, we modify the common reinforcement learning(RL) process by proposing a new bid representation method called Neural Network Embedded Bids (NNEBs). NNEBs refer to market bids that are represented by monotonic neural networks with discrete outputs. To achieve effective learning of NNEBs, we first learn a neural network as a strategic mapping from the market price to ESS power output with RL. Then, we re-train the network with two training modifications to make the network output monotonic and discrete. Finally, the neural network is equivalently converted into a high-dimensional bid for bidding. We conducted experiments over real-world market datasets. Our studies show that the proposed method achieves 18% higher profit than the baseline and up to 78% profit of the optimal market bidder.

Kedi Zheng, Hongye Guo, Qixin Chen

This paper studies the pool strategy for price-makers under imperfect information. In this occasion, market participants cannot obtain essential transmission parameters of the power system. Thus, price-makers should estimate the market results with respect to their offer curves using available historical information. The linear programming model of economic dispatch is analyzed with the theory of rim multi-parametric linear programming (rim-MPLP). The characteristics of system patterns (combinations of status flags for generating units and transmission lines) are revealed. A multi-class classification model based on support vector machine (SVM) is trained to map the offer curves to system patterns, which is then integrated into the decision framework of the price-maker. The performance of the proposed method is validated on the IEEE 30-bus system, Illinois synthetic 200-bus system, and South Carolina synthetic 500-bus system.

Jinyu Liu, Hongye Guo, Yun Li et al.

Over the past decade, bidding in power markets has attracted widespread attention. Reinforcement Learning (RL) has been widely used for power market bidding as a powerful AI tool to make decisions under real-world uncertainties. However, current RL methods mostly employ low dimensional bids, which significantly diverge from the N price-power pairs commonly used in the current power markets. The N-pair bidding format is denoted as High Dimensional Bids (HDBs), which has not been fully integrated into the existing RL-based bidding methods. The loss of flexibility in current RL bidding methods could greatly limit the bidding profits and make it difficult to tackle the rising uncertainties brought by renewable energy generations. In this paper, we intend to propose a framework to fully utilize HDBs for RL-based bidding methods. First, we employ a special type of neural network called Neural Network Supply Functions (NNSFs) to generate HDBs in the form of N price-power pairs. Second, we embed the NNSF into a Markov Decision Process (MDP) to make it compatible with most existing RL methods. Finally, experiments on Energy Storage Systems (ESSs) in the PJM Real-Time (RT) power market show that the proposed bidding method with HDBs can significantly improve bidding flexibility, thereby improving the profit of the state-of-the-art RL bidding methods.

Runyao Yu, Yuchen Tao, Fabian Leimgruber et al.

Probabilistic forecasting of intraday electricity prices is essential to manage market uncertainties. However, current methods rely heavily on domain feature extraction, which breaks the end-to-end training pipeline and limits the model's ability to learn expressive representations from the raw orderbook. Moreover, these methods often require training separate models for different quantiles, further violating the end-to-end principle and introducing the quantile crossing issue. Recent advances in time-series models have demonstrated promising performance in general forecasting tasks. However, these models lack inductive biases arising from buy-sell interactions and are thus overparameterized. To address these challenges, we propose an end-to-end probabilistic model called OrderFusion, which produces interaction-aware representations of buy-sell dynamics, hierarchically estimates multiple quantiles, and remains parameter-efficient with only 4,872 parameters. We conduct extensive experiments and ablation studies on price indices (ID1, ID2, and ID3) using three years of orderbook in high-liquidity (German) and low-liquidity (Austrian) markets. The experimental results demonstrate that OrderFusion consistently outperforms multiple competitive baselines across markets, and ablation studies highlight the contribution of its individual components. The project page is at: https://runyao-yu.github.io/OrderFusion/.