Yuting Chen

Samuel Asante Gyamerah, Philip Ngare, Dennis Ikpe

A reliable and accurate forecasting model for crop yields is of crucial importance for efficient decision-making process in the agricultural sector. However, due to weather extremes and uncertainties, most forecasting models for crop yield are not reliable and accurate. For measuring the uncertainty and obtaining further information of future crop yields, a probability density forecasting model based on quantile random forest and Epanechnikov kernel function (QRF-SJ) is proposed. The nonlinear structure of random forest is applied to change the quantile regression model for building the probabilistic forecasting model. Epanechnikov kernel function and solve-the equation plug-in approach of Sheather and Jones are used in the kernel density estimation. A case study using the annual crop yield of groundnut and millet in Ghana is presented to illustrate the efficiency and robustness of the proposed technique. The values of the prediction interval coverage probability and prediction interval normalized average width for the two crops show that the constructed prediction intervals capture the observed yields with high coverage probability. The probability density curves show that QRF-SJ method has a very high ability to forecast quality prediction intervals with a higher coverage probability. The feature importance gave a score of the importance of each weather variable in building the quantile regression forest model. The farmer and other stakeholders are able to realize the specific weather variable that affect the yield of a selected crop through feature importance. The proposed method and its application on crop yield dataset are the first of its kind in literature.

An-Chieh Cheng, Jin-Dong Dong, Chi-Hung Hsu et al.

Recent breakthroughs in Neural Architectural Search (NAS) have achieved state-of-the-art performance in many tasks such as image classification and language understanding. However, most existing works only optimize for model accuracy and largely ignore other important factors imposed by the underlying hardware and devices, such as latency and energy, when making inference. In this paper, we first introduce the problem of NAS and provide a survey on recent works. Then we deep dive into two recent advancements on extending NAS into multiple-objective frameworks: MONAS and DPP-Net. Both MONAS and DPP-Net are capable of optimizing accuracy and other objectives imposed by devices, searching for neural architectures that can be best deployed on a wide spectrum of devices: from embedded systems and mobile devices to workstations. Experimental results are poised to show that architectures found by MONAS and DPP-Net achieves Pareto optimality w.r.t the given objectives for various devices.

You-Luen Lee, Da-Cheng Juan, Xuan-An Tseng et al.

When will a server fail catastrophically in an industrial datacenter? Is it possible to forecast these failures so preventive actions can be taken to increase the reliability of a datacenter? To answer these questions, we have studied what are probably the largest, publicly available datacenter traces, containing more than 104 million events from 12,500 machines. Among these samples, we observe and categorize three types of machine failures, all of which are catastrophic and may lead to information loss, or even worse, reliability degradation of a datacenter. We further propose a two-stage framework-DC-Prophet-based on One-Class Support Vector Machine and Random Forest. DC-Prophet extracts surprising patterns and accurately predicts the next failure of a machine. Experimental results show that DC-Prophet achieves an AUC of 0.93 in predicting the next machine failure, and a F3-score of 0.88 (out of 1). On average, DC-Prophet outperforms other classical machine learning methods by 39.45% in F3-score.