Ryan S. Baker

Maciej Pankiewicz, Ryan S. Baker

Addressing the challenge of generating personalized feedback for programming assignments is demanding due to several factors, like the complexity of code syntax or different ways to correctly solve a task. In this experimental study, we automated the process of feedback generation by employing OpenAI's GPT-3.5 model to generate personalized hints for students solving programming assignments on an automated assessment platform. Students rated the usefulness of GPT-generated hints positively. The experimental group (with GPT hints enabled) relied less on the platform's regular feedback but performed better in terms of percentage of successful submissions across consecutive attempts for tasks, where GPT hints were enabled. For tasks where the GPT feedback was made unavailable, the experimental group needed significantly less time to solve assignments. Furthermore, when GPT hints were unavailable, students in the experimental condition were initially less likely to solve the assignment correctly. This suggests potential over-reliance on GPT-generated feedback. However, students in the experimental condition were able to correct reasonably rapidly, reaching the same percentage correct after seven submission attempts. The availability of GPT hints did not significantly impact students' affective state.

Yan Tao, Olga Viberg, Ryan S. Baker et al.

Culture fundamentally shapes people's reasoning, behavior, and communication. As people increasingly use generative artificial intelligence (AI) to expedite and automate personal and professional tasks, cultural values embedded in AI models may bias people's authentic expression and contribute to the dominance of certain cultures. We conduct a disaggregated evaluation of cultural bias for five widely used large language models (OpenAI's GPT-4o/4-turbo/4/3.5-turbo/3) by comparing the models' responses to nationally representative survey data. All models exhibit cultural values resembling English-speaking and Protestant European countries. We test cultural prompting as a control strategy to increase cultural alignment for each country/territory. For recent models (GPT-4, 4-turbo, 4o), this improves the cultural alignment of the models' output for 71-81% of countries and territories. We suggest using cultural prompting and ongoing evaluation to reduce cultural bias in the output of generative AI.

Valdemar Švábenský, Kristián Tkáčik, Aubrey Birdwell et al.

This full paper in the research track evaluates the usage of data logged from cybersecurity exercises in order to predict students who are potentially at risk of performing poorly. Hands-on exercises are essential for learning since they enable students to practice their skills. In cybersecurity, hands-on exercises are often complex and require knowledge of many topics. Therefore, students may miss solutions due to gaps in their knowledge and become frustrated, which impedes their learning. Targeted aid by the instructor helps, but since the instructor's time is limited, efficient ways to detect struggling students are needed. This paper develops automated tools to predict when a student is having difficulty. We formed a dataset with the actions of 313 students from two countries and two learning environments: KYPO CRP and EDURange. These data are used in machine learning algorithms to predict the success of students in exercises deployed in these environments. After extracting features from the data, we trained and cross-validated eight classifiers for predicting the exercise outcome and evaluated their predictive power. The contribution of this paper is comparing two approaches to feature engineering, modeling, and classification performance on data from two learning environments. Using the features from either learning environment, we were able to detect and distinguish between successful and struggling students. A decision tree classifier achieved the highest balanced accuracy and sensitivity with data from both learning environments. The results show that activity data from cybersecurity exercises are suitable for predicting student success. In a potential application, such models can aid instructors in detecting struggling students and providing targeted help. We publish data and code for building these models so that others can adopt or adapt them.

Valdemar Švábenský, Ryan S. Baker, Andrés Zambrano et al.

Students who take an online course, such as a MOOC, use the course's discussion forum to ask questions or reach out to instructors when encountering an issue. However, reading and responding to students' questions is difficult to scale because of the time needed to consider each message. As a result, critical issues may be left unresolved, and students may lose the motivation to continue in the course. To help address this problem, we build predictive models that automatically determine the urgency of each forum post, so that these posts can be brought to instructors' attention. This paper goes beyond previous work by predicting not just a binary decision cut-off but a post's level of urgency on a 7-point scale. First, we train and cross-validate several models on an original data set of 3,503 posts from MOOCs at University of Pennsylvania. Second, to determine the generalizability of our models, we test their performance on a separate, previously published data set of 29,604 posts from MOOCs at Stanford University. While the previous work on post urgency used only one data set, we evaluated the prediction across different data sets and courses. The best-performing model was a support vector regressor trained on the Universal Sentence Encoder embeddings of the posts, achieving an RMSE of 1.1 on the training set and 1.4 on the test set. Understanding the urgency of forum posts enables instructors to focus their time more effectively and, as a result, better support student learning.

Jaclyn Ocumpaugh, Luc Paquette, Ryan S. Baker et al.

Data Driven Classroom Interviews (DDCIs) are an interviewing technique that is facilitated by recent technological developments in the learning analytics community. DDCIs are short, targeted interviews that allow researchers to contextualize students' interactions with a digital learning environment (e.g., intelligent tutoring systems or educational games) while minimizing the amount of time that the researcher interrupts that learning experience, and focusing researcher time on the events they most want to focus on DDCIs are facilitated by a research tool called the Quick Red Fox (QRF)--an open-source server-client Android app that optimizes researcher time by directing interviewers to users that have just displayed an interesting behavior (previously defined by the research team). QRF integrates with existing student modeling technologies (e.g., behavior-sensing, affect-sensing, detection of self-regulated learning) to alert researchers to key moments in a learner's experience. This manual documents the tech while providing training on the processes involved in developing triggers and interview techniques; it also suggests methods of analyses.

Marisa C. Peczuh, Nischal Ashok Kumar, Ryan Baker et al.

Critical thinking represents a fundamental competency in today's education landscape. Developing critical thinking skills through timely assessment and feedback is crucial; however, there has not been extensive work in the learning analytics community on defining, measuring, and supporting critical thinking. In this paper, we investigate the feasibility of measuring core "subskills" that underlie critical thinking. We ground our work in an authentic task where students operationalize critical thinking: student-written argumentative essays. We developed a coding rubric based on an established skills progression and completed human coding for a corpus of student essays. We then evaluated three distinct approaches to automated scoring: zero-shot prompting, few-shot prompting, and supervised fine-tuning, implemented across three large language models (GPT-5, GPT-5-mini, and ModernBERT). GPT-5 with few-shot prompting achieved the strongest results and demonstrated particular strength on subskills with separable, frequent categories, while lower performance was observed for subskills that required detection of subtle distinctions or rare categories. Our results underscore critical trade-offs in automated critical thinking assessment: proprietary models offer superior reliability at higher cost, while open-source alternatives provide practical accuracy with reduced sensitivity to minority categories. Our work represents an initial step toward scalable assessment of higher-order reasoning skills across authentic educational contexts.

Josh Gardner, Christopher Brooks, Juan Miguel L. Andres et al.

Big data repositories from online learning platforms such as Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) represent an unprecedented opportunity to advance research on education at scale and impact a global population of learners. To date, such research has been hindered by poor reproducibility and a lack of replication, largely due to three types of barriers: experimental, inferential, and data. We present a novel system for large-scale computational research, the MOOC Replication Framework (MORF), to jointly address these barriers. We discuss MORF's architecture, an open-source platform-as-a-service (PaaS) which includes a simple, flexible software API providing for multiple modes of research (predictive modeling or production rule analysis) integrated with a high-performance computing environment. All experiments conducted on MORF use executable Docker containers which ensure complete reproducibility while allowing for the use of any software or language which can be installed in the linux-based Docker container. Each experimental artifact is assigned a DOI and made publicly available. MORF has the potential to accelerate and democratize research on its massive data repository, which currently includes over 200 MOOCs, as demonstrated by initial research conducted on the platform. We also highlight ways in which MORF represents a solution template to a more general class of problems faced by computational researchers in other domains.

Conrad Borchers, Jiayi Zhang, Ryan S. Baker et al.

Numerous studies demonstrate the importance of self-regulation during learning by problem-solving. Recent work in learning analytics has largely examined students' use of SRL concerning overall learning gains. Limited research has related SRL to in-the-moment performance differences among learners. The present study investigates SRL behaviors in relationship to learners' moment-by-moment performance while working with intelligent tutoring systems for stoichiometry chemistry. We demonstrate the feasibility of labeling SRL behaviors based on AI-generated think-aloud transcripts, identifying the presence or absence of four SRL categories (processing information, planning, enacting, and realizing errors) in each utterance. Using the SRL codes, we conducted regression analyses to examine how the use of SRL in terms of presence, frequency, cyclical characteristics, and recency relate to student performance on subsequent steps in multi-step problems. A model considering students' SRL cycle characteristics outperformed a model only using in-the-moment SRL assessment. In line with theoretical predictions, students' actions during earlier, process-heavy stages of SRL cycles exhibited lower moment-by-moment correctness during problem-solving than later SRL cycle stages. We discuss system re-design opportunities to add SRL support during stages of processing and paths forward for using machine learning to speed research depending on the assessment of SRL based on transcription of think-aloud data.

Conrad Borchers, Ryan S. Baker

Algorithmic bias continues to be a key concern of learning analytics. We study the statistical properties of the Absolute Between-ROC Area (ABROCA) metric. This fairness measure quantifies group-level differences in classifier performance through the absolute difference in ROC curves. ABROCA is particularly useful for detecting nuanced performance differences even when overall Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) values are similar. We sample ABROCA under various conditions, including varying AUC differences and class distributions. We find that ABROCA distributions exhibit high skewness dependent on sample sizes, AUC differences, and class imbalance. When assessing whether a classifier is biased, this skewness inflates ABROCA values by chance, even when data is drawn (by simulation) from populations with equivalent ROC curves. These findings suggest that ABROCA requires careful interpretation given its distributional properties, especially when used to assess the degree of bias and when classes are imbalanced.

Valdemar Švábenský, Mélina Verger, Maria Mercedes T. Rodrigo et al.

Algorithmic bias is a major issue in machine learning models in educational contexts. However, it has not yet been studied thoroughly in Asian learning contexts, and only limited work has considered algorithmic bias based on regional (sub-national) background. As a step towards addressing this gap, this paper examines the population of 5,986 students at a large university in the Philippines, investigating algorithmic bias based on students' regional background. The university used the Canvas learning management system (LMS) in its online courses across a broad range of domains. Over the period of three semesters, we collected 48.7 million log records of the students' activity in Canvas. We used these logs to train binary classification models that predict student grades from the LMS activity. The best-performing model reached AUC of 0.75 and weighted F1-score of 0.79. Subsequently, we examined the data for bias based on students' region. Evaluation using three metrics: AUC, weighted F1-score, and MADD showed consistent results across all demographic groups. Thus, no unfairness was observed against a particular student group in the grade predictions.

Ryan S. Baker, Nigel Bosch, Stephen Hutt et al.

Recently, ACM FAccT published an article by Kwegyir-Aggrey and colleagues (2023), critiquing the use of AUC ROC in predictive analytics in several domains. In this article, we offer a critique of that article. Specifically, we highlight technical inaccuracies in that paper's comparison of metrics, mis-specification of the interpretation and goals of AUC ROC, the article's use of the accuracy metric as a gold standard for comparison to AUC ROC, and the article's application of critiques solely to AUC ROC for concerns that would apply to the use of any metric. We conclude with a re-framing of the very valid concerns raised in that article, and discuss how the use of AUC ROC can remain a valid and appropriate practice in a well-informed predictive analytics approach taking those concerns into account. We conclude by discussing the combined use of multiple metrics, including machine learning bias metrics, and AUC ROC's place in such an approach. Like broccoli, AUC ROC is healthy, but also like broccoli, researchers and practitioners in our field shouldn't eat a diet of only AUC ROC.

Richard Scruggs, Ryan S. Baker, Bruce M. McLaren

Recent student knowledge modeling algorithms such as Deep Knowledge Tracing (DKT) and Dynamic Key-Value Memory Networks (DKVMN) have been shown to produce accurate predictions of problem correctness within the same learning system. However, these algorithms do not attempt to directly infer student knowledge. In this paper we present an extension to these algorithms to also infer knowledge. We apply this extension to DKT and DKVMN, resulting in knowledge estimates that correlate better with a posttest than knowledge estimates from Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT), an algorithm designed to infer knowledge, and another classic algorithm, Performance Factors Analysis (PFA). We also apply our extension to correctness predictions from BKT and PFA, finding that knowledge estimates produced with it correlate better with the posttest than BKT and PFA's standard knowledge estimates. These findings are significant since the primary aim of education is to prepare students for later experiences outside of the immediate learning activity.

Eda Okur, Sinem Aslan, Nese Alyuz et al.

The development of real-time affect detection models often depends upon obtaining annotated data for supervised learning by employing human experts to label the student data. One open question in annotating affective data for affect detection is whether the labelers (i.e., human experts) need to be socio-culturally similar to the students being labeled, as this impacts the cost feasibility of obtaining the labels. In this study, we investigate the following research questions: For affective state annotation, how does the socio-cultural background of human expert labelers, compared to the subjects, impact the degree of consensus and distribution of affective states obtained? Secondly, how do differences in labeler background impact the performance of affect detection models that are trained using these labels?