Dana Grund

Roberto Molinaro, Samuel Lanthaler, Bogdan Raonić et al.

We present a generative AI algorithm for addressing the pressing task of fast, accurate, and robust statistical computation of three-dimensional turbulent fluid flows. Our algorithm, termed as GenCFD, is based on an end-to-end conditional score-based diffusion model. Through extensive numerical experimentation with a set of challenging fluid flows, we demonstrate that GenCFD provides an accurate approximation of relevant statistical quantities of interest while also efficiently generating high-quality realistic samples of turbulent fluid flows and ensuring excellent spectral resolution. In contrast, ensembles of deterministic ML algorithms, trained to minimize mean square errors, regress to the mean flow. We present rigorous theoretical results uncovering the surprising mechanisms through which diffusion models accurately generate fluid flows. These mechanisms are illustrated with solvable toy models that exhibit the mathematically relevant features of turbulent fluid flows while being amenable to explicit analytical formulae. Our codes are publicly available at https://github.com/camlab-ethz/GenCFD.

Firat Ozdemir, Yun Cheng, Salman Mohebi et al. · eth-zurich

Foundation models (FMs) for the Earth system learn statistical relationships between physical variables across massive datasets to enable versatile downstream applications through finetuning, separating them from task-specific weather models. Here, we introduce Earth System Foundation Model (ESFM), a fully open model building on the 3D Swin UNet backbone of the pioneering Aurora model. ESFM introduces extensions that increase functionality and foster adoption in climate sciences. First, the encoding scheme and training protocols have been extended to handle diverse datasets, including those containing missing values across all spatio-temporal dimensions such as satellite data, as well as station data, all under one backbone. Axial attention is introduced to capture inter-variable dependencies. As a result ESFM skillfully predicts variables in regions or on pressure levels where no data is present at the initial time, while preserving inter-variable relationships, for example between temperature, pressure, and humidity. Individual variable tokenization enables different sets of variables to be shuffled during training and simplifies the process of building extensions for new downstream tasks. Adaptive layer norm-based ensembles allow for a simple yet effective way to transform deterministic ESFM to a probabilistic FM. We present findings using dense gridded data (ERA5, CMIP6), regionally masked dense data, sparse gridded MODIS satellite data, and station data. Results demonstrate competitive or superior performance relative to state-of-the-art benchmarks. Case studies of Super Typhoon Doksuri (2023) and 2024 sudden stratospheric warming events show accurate positional and magnitude estimations of extreme weather. ESFM retains the strengths of previous foundation models, such as long-term stability, but facilitates application to a variety of downstream tasks.

Levi E. Lingsch, Dana Grund, Siddhartha Mishra et al.

The joint prediction of continuous fields and statistical estimation of the underlying discrete parameters is a common problem for many physical systems, governed by PDEs. Hitherto, it has been separately addressed by employing operator learning surrogates for field prediction while using simulation-based inference (and its variants) for statistical parameter determination. Here, we argue that solving both problems within the same framework can lead to consistent gains in accuracy and robustness. To this end, We propose a novel and flexible formulation of the operator learning problem that allows jointly predicting continuous quantities and inferring distributions of discrete parameters, and thus amortizing the cost of both the inverse and the surrogate models to a joint pre-training step. We present the capabilities of the proposed methodology for predicting continuous and discrete biomarkers in full-body haemodynamics simulations under different levels of missing information. We also consider a test case for atmospheric large-eddy simulation of a two-dimensional dry cold bubble, where we infer both continuous time-series and information about the systems conditions. We present comparisons against different baselines to showcase significantly increased accuracy in both the inverse and the surrogate tasks.

Orestis Oikonomou, Levi Lingsch, Dana Grund et al.

Analytical solutions of differential equations offer exact insights into fundamental behaviors of physical processes. Their application, however, is limited as finding these solutions is difficult. To overcome this limitation, we combine two key insights. First, constructing an analytical solution requires a composition of foundational solution components. Second, iterative solvers define parameterized function spaces with constraint-based updates. Our approach merges compositional differential equation solution techniques with iterative refinement by using formal grammars, building a rich space of candidate solutions that are embedded into a low-dimensional (continuous) latent manifold for probabilistic exploration. This integration unifies numerical and symbolic differential equation solvers via a neuro-symbolic AI framework to find analytical solutions of a wide variety of differential equations. By systematically constructing candidate expressions and applying constraint-based refinement, we overcome longstanding barriers to extract such closed-form solutions. We illustrate advantages over commercial solvers, symbolic methods, and approximate neural networks on a diverse set of problems, demonstrating both generality and accuracy.