95.9PMApr 19
Signal or Noise in Multi-Agent LLM-based Stock Recommendations?George Fatouros, Kostas Metaxas
We present the first portfolio-level validation of MarketSenseAI, a deployed multi-agent LLM equity system. All signals are generated live at each observation date, eliminating look-ahead bias. The system routes four specialist agents (News, Fundamentals, Dynamics, and Macro) through a synthesis agent that issues a monthly equity thesis and recommendation for each stock in its coverage universe, and we ask two questions: do its buy recommendations add value over both passive benchmarks and random selection, and what does the internal agent structure reveal about the source of the edge? On the S&P 500 cohort (19 months) the strong-buy equal-weight portfolio earns +2.18%/month against a passive equal-weight benchmark of +1.15% (approximating RSP), a +25.2% compound excess, and ranks at the 99.7th percentile of 10,000 Monte Carlo portfolios (p=0.003). The S&P 100 cohort (35 months) delivers a +30.5% compound excess over EQWL with consistent direction but formal significance not reached, limited by the small average selection of ~10 stocks per month. Non-negative least-squares projection of thesis embeddings onto agent embeddings reveals an adaptive-integration mechanism. Agent contributions rotate with market regime (Fundamentals leads on S&P 500, Macro on S&P 100, Dynamics acts as an episodic momentum signal) and this agent rotation moves in lockstep with both the sector composition of strong-buy selections and identifiable macro-calendar events, three independent views of the same underlying adaptation. The recommendation's cross-sectional Information Coefficient is statistically significant on S&P 500 (ICIR=+0.489, p=0.024). These results suggest that multi-agent LLM equity systems can identify sources of alpha beyond what classical factor models capture, and that the buy signal functions as an effective universe-filter that can sit upstream of any portfolio-construction process.
71.7AIMay 3
CyberAId: AI-Driven Cybersecurity for Financial Service ProvidersGeorge Fatouros, Georgios Makridis, John Soldatos et al.
European financial institutions face mounting regulatory pressure while their security operations centres remain constrained not by data or staffing but by reasoning capacity: enterprise SIEMs cover only a fraction of MITRE ATT&CK techniques, two thirds of SOC teams cannot keep pace with alert volumes, and the majority of breaches are preceded by alerts that are generated but never investigated. Frontier large language models now achieve state-of-the-art results on isolated cybersecurity tasks (one-day vulnerability exploitation, code-level patching, intrusion detection) yet no narrow win constitutes a platform that can compose across functions, persist multi-tenant state, map findings to regulatory regimes and survive an audit. This position paper argues that the right unit of construction is a hybrid multi-agent system in which specialised LLM subagents reason over classical SIEM/XDR telemetry rather than replacing it, share accumulated agent state across institutions through privacy-preserving federation, and can connect to complementary capability packs such as quantum-based authentication, digital twins for adversarial validation, and eBPF-based kernel telemetry. We present CyberAId, a model-agnostic, on-premise-deployable platform in which a Main Agent coordination layer, a Reporting capability, and specialist subagents operate within a shared runtime under bounded human-in-the-loop autonomy, organised around four falsifiable design principles, and aligned with relevant regulations. CyberAId will be validated at four representative financial use cases (client impersonation, anti-money-laundering for payment service providers, retail-banking incident response, and high-frequency-trading resilience) and propose skill-based agent adaptation as the most promising research direction for turning each deployment into a contribution to a continuously refined collective defence.
CPFeb 1, 2025
MarketSenseAI 2.0: Enhancing Stock Analysis through LLM AgentsGeorge Fatouros, Kostas Metaxas, John Soldatos et al.
MarketSenseAI is a novel framework for holistic stock analysis which leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) to process financial news, historical prices, company fundamentals and the macroeconomic environment to support decision making in stock analysis and selection. In this paper, we present the latest advancements on MarketSenseAI, driven by rapid technological expansion in LLMs. Through a novel architecture combining Retrieval-Augmented Generation and LLM agents, the framework processes SEC filings and earnings calls, while enriching macroeconomic analysis through systematic processing of diverse institutional reports. We demonstrate a significant improvement in fundamental analysis accuracy over the previous version. Empirical evaluation on S\&P 100 stocks over two years (2023-2024) shows MarketSenseAI achieving cumulative returns of 125.9% compared to the index return of 73.5%, while maintaining comparable risk profiles. Further validation on S\&P 500 stocks during 2024 demonstrates the framework's scalability, delivering a 33.8% higher Sortino ratio than the market. This work marks a significant advancement in applying LLM technology to financial analysis, offering insights into the robustness of LLM-driven investment strategies.