Marios M. Polycarpou

Kleanthis Malialis, Christos G. Panayiotou, Marios M. Polycarpou

We have witnessed in recent years an ever-growing volume of information becoming available in a streaming manner in various application areas. As a result, there is an emerging need for online learning methods that train predictive models on-the-fly. A series of open challenges, however, hinder their deployment in practice. These are, learning as data arrive in real-time one-by-one, learning from data with limited ground truth information, learning from nonstationary data, and learning from severely imbalanced data, while occupying a limited amount of memory for data storage. We propose the ActiSiamese algorithm, which addresses these challenges by combining online active learning, siamese networks, and a multi-queue memory. It develops a new density-based active learning strategy which considers similarity in the latent (rather than the input) space. We conduct an extensive study that compares the role of different active learning budgets and strategies, the performance with/without memory, the performance with/without ensembling, in both synthetic and real-world datasets, under different data nonstationarity characteristics and class imbalance levels. ActiSiamese outperforms baseline and state-of-the-art algorithms, and is effective under severe imbalance, even only when a fraction of the arriving instances' labels is available. We publicly release our code to the community.

Kleanthis Malialis, Manuel Roveri, Cesare Alippi et al.

In real-world applications, the process generating the data might suffer from nonstationary effects (e.g., due to seasonality, faults affecting sensors or actuators, and changes in the users' behaviour). These changes, often called concept drift, might induce severe (potentially catastrophic) impacts on trained learning models that become obsolete over time, and inadequate to solve the task at hand. Learning in presence of concept drift aims at designing machine and deep learning models that are able to track and adapt to concept drift. Typically, techniques to handle concept drift are either active or passive, and traditionally, these have been considered to be mutually exclusive. Active techniques use an explicit drift detection mechanism, and re-train the learning algorithm when concept drift is detected. Passive techniques use an implicit method to deal with drift, and continually update the model using incremental learning. Differently from what present in the literature, we propose a hybrid alternative which merges the two approaches, hence, leveraging on their advantages. The proposed method called Hybrid-Adaptive REBAlancing (HAREBA) significantly outperforms strong baselines and state-of-the-art methods in terms of learning quality and speed; we experiment how it is effective under severe class imbalance levels too.

Kleanthis Malialis, Dimitris Papatheodoulou, Stylianos Filippou et al.

There is an emerging need for predictive models to be trained on-the-fly, since in numerous machine learning applications data are arriving in an online fashion. A critical challenge encountered is that of limited availability of ground truth information (e.g., labels in classification tasks) as new data are observed one-by-one online, while another significant challenge is that of class imbalance. This work introduces the novel Augmented Queues method, which addresses the dual-problem by combining in a synergistic manner online active learning, data augmentation, and a multi-queue memory to maintain separate and balanced queues for each class. We perform an extensive experimental study using image and time-series augmentations, in which we examine the roles of the active learning budget, memory size, imbalance level, and neural network type. We demonstrate two major advantages of Augmented Queues. First, it does not reserve additional memory space as the generation of synthetic data occurs only at training times. Second, learning models have access to more labelled data without the need to increase the active learning budget and / or the original memory size. Learning on-the-fly poses major challenges which, typically, hinder the deployment of learning models. Augmented Queues significantly improves the performance in terms of learning quality and speed. Our code is made publicly available.

André Artelt, Stelios Vrachimis, Demetrios Eliades et al.

Transparency is a major requirement of modern AI based decision making systems deployed in real world. A popular approach for achieving transparency is by means of explanations. A wide variety of different explanations have been proposed for single decision making systems. In practice it is often the case to have a set (i.e. ensemble) of decisions that are used instead of a single decision only, in particular in complex systems. Unfortunately, explanation methods for single decision making systems are not easily applicable to ensembles -- i.e. they would yield an ensemble of individual explanations which are not necessarily consistent, hence less useful and more difficult to understand than a single consistent explanation of all observed phenomena. We propose a novel concept for consistently explaining an ensemble of decisions locally with a single explanation -- we introduce a formal concept, as well as a specific implementation using counterfactual explanations.

Pavlos Pavlou, Stelios Vrachimis, Demetrios G. Eliades et al.

Smart metering of domestic water consumption to continuously monitor the usage of different appliances has been shown to have an impact on people's behavior towards water conservation. However, the installation of multiple sensors to monitor each appliance currently has a high initial cost and as a result, monitoring consumption from different appliances using sensors is not cost-effective. To address this challenge, studies have focused on analyzing measurements of the total domestic consumption using Machine Learning (ML) methods, to disaggregate water usage into each appliance. Identifying which appliances are in use through ML is challenging since their operation may be overlapping, while specific appliances may operate with intermittent flow, making individual consumption events hard to distinguish. Moreover, ML approaches require large amounts of labeled input data to train their models, which are typically not available for a single household, while usage characteristics may vary in different regions. In this work, we initially propose a data model that generates synthetic time series based on regional water usage characteristics and resolution to overcome the need for a large training dataset with real labeled data. The method requires a small number of real labeled data from the studied region. Following this, we propose a new algorithm for classifying single and overlapping household water usage events, using the total domestic consumption measurements.

André Artelt, Kleanthis Malialis, Christos Panayiotou et al.

Concept drift refers to a change in the data distribution affecting the data stream of future samples. Consequently, learning models operating on the data stream might become obsolete, and need costly and difficult adjustments such as retraining or adaptation. Existing methods usually implement a local concept drift adaptation scheme, where either incremental learning of the models is used, or the models are completely retrained when a drift detection mechanism triggers an alarm. This paper proposes an alternative approach in which an unsupervised and model-agnostic concept drift adaptation method at the global level is introduced, based on autoencoders. Specifically, the proposed method aims to ``unlearn'' the concept drift without having to retrain or adapt any of the learning models operating on the data. An extensive experimental evaluation is conducted in two application domains. We consider a realistic water distribution network with more than 30 models in-place, from which we create 200 simulated data sets / scenarios. We further consider an image-related task to demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Kleanthis Malialis, Stylianos Filippou, Christos G. Panayiotou et al.

Data stream mining, also known as stream learning, is a growing area which deals with learning from high-speed arriving data. Its relevance has surged recently due to its wide range of applicability, such as, critical infrastructure monitoring, social media analysis, and recommender systems. The design of stream learning methods faces significant research challenges; from the nonstationary nature of the data (referred to as concept drift) and the fact that data streams are typically not annotated with the ground truth, to the requirement that such methods should process large amounts of data in real-time with limited memory. This work proposes the SiameseDuo++ method, which uses active learning to automatically select instances for a human expert to label according to a budget. Specifically, it incrementally trains two siamese neural networks which operate in synergy, augmented by generated examples. Both the proposed active learning strategy and augmentation operate in the latent space. SiameseDuo++ addresses the aforementioned challenges by operating with limited memory and limited labelling budget. Simulation experiments show that the proposed method outperforms strong baselines and state-of-the-art methods in terms of learning speed and/or performance. To promote open science we publicly release our code and datasets.

Savvas Papaioannou, Panayiotis Kolios, Christos G. Panayiotou et al.

In the rapidly changing environments of disaster response, planning and decision-making for autonomous agents involve complex and interdependent choices. Although recent advancements have improved traditional artificial intelligence (AI) approaches, they often struggle in such settings, particularly when applied to agents operating outside their well-defined training parameters. To address these challenges, we propose an attention-based cognitive architecture inspired by Dual Process Theory (DPT). This framework integrates, in an online fashion, rapid yet heuristic (human-like) responses (System 1) with the slow but optimized planning capabilities of machine intelligence (System 2). We illustrate how a supervisory controller can dynamically determine in real-time the engagement of either system to optimize mission objectives by assessing their performance across a number of distinct attributes. Evaluated for trajectory planning in dynamic environments, our framework demonstrates that this synergistic integration effectively manages complex tasks by optimizing multiple mission objectives.

Charalampos Shimillas, Kleanthis Malialis, Konstantinos Fokianos et al.

With the growing complexity of Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) and the integration of Internet of Things (IoT), the use of sensors for online monitoring generates large volume of multivariate time series (MTS) data. Consequently, the need for robust anomaly diagnosis in MTS is paramount to maintaining system reliability and safety. While significant advancements have been made in anomaly detection, localization remains a largely underexplored area, though crucial for intelligent decision-making. This paper introduces a novel transformer-based model for unsupervised anomaly diagnosis in MTS, with a focus on improving localization performance, through an in-depth analysis of the self-attention mechanism's learning behavior under both normal and anomalous conditions. We formulate the anomaly localization problem as a three-stage process: time-step, window, and segment-based. This leads to the development of the Space-Time Anomaly Score (STAS), a new metric inspired by the connection between transformer latent representations and space-time statistical models. STAS is designed to capture individual anomaly behaviors and inter-series dependencies, delivering enhanced localization performance. Additionally, the Statistical Feature Anomaly Score (SFAS) complements STAS by analyzing statistical features around anomalies, with their combination helping to reduce false alarms. Experiments on real world and synthetic datasets illustrate the model's superiority over state-of-the-art methods in both detection and localization tasks.

Kleanthis Malialis, Jin Li, Christos G. Panayiotou et al.

Data stream mining aims at extracting meaningful knowledge from continually evolving data streams, addressing the challenges posed by nonstationary environments, particularly, concept drift which refers to a change in the underlying data distribution over time. Graph structures offer a powerful modelling tool to represent complex systems, such as, critical infrastructure systems and social networks. Learning from graph streams becomes a necessity to understand the dynamics of graph structures and to facilitate informed decision-making. This work introduces a novel method for graph stream classification which operates under the general setting where a data generating process produces graphs with varying nodes and edges over time. The method uses incremental learning for continual model adaptation, selecting representative graphs (prototypes) for each class, and creating graph embeddings. Additionally, it incorporates a loss-based concept drift detection mechanism to recalculate graph prototypes when drift is detected.

André Artelt, Stelios G. Vrachimis, Demetrios G. Eliades et al.

The increasing penetration of information and communication technologies in the design, monitoring, and control of water systems enables the use of algorithms for detecting and identifying unanticipated events (such as leakages or water contamination) using sensor measurements. However, data-driven methodologies do not always give accurate results and are often not trusted by operators, who may prefer to use their engineering judgment and experience to deal with such events. In this work, we propose a framework for interpretable event diagnosis -- an approach that assists the operators in associating the results of algorithmic event diagnosis methodologies with their own intuition and experience. This is achieved by providing contrasting (i.e., counterfactual) explanations of the results provided by fault diagnosis algorithms; their aim is to improve the understanding of the algorithm's inner workings by the operators, thus enabling them to take a more informed decision by combining the results with their personal experiences. Specifically, we propose counterfactual event fingerprints, a representation of the difference between the current event diagnosis and the closest alternative explanation, which can be presented in a graphical way. The proposed methodology is applied and evaluated on a realistic use case using the L-Town benchmark.

Ganghui Cao, Shimin Wang, Martin Guay et al.

This paper investigates parameter learning problems under deficient excitation (DE). The DE condition is a rank-deficient, and therefore, a more general evolution of the well-known persistent excitation condition. Under the DE condition, a proposed online algorithm is able to calculate the identifiable and non-identifiable subspaces, and finally give an optimal parameter estimate in the sense of least squares. In particular, the learning error within the identifiable subspace exponentially converges to zero in the noise-free case, even without persistent excitation. The DE condition also provides a new perspective for solving distributed parameter learning problems, where the challenge is posed by local regressors that are often insufficiently excited. To improve knowledge of the unknown parameters, a cooperative learning protocol is proposed for a group of estimators that collect measured information under complementary DE conditions. This protocol allows each local estimator to operate locally in its identifiable subspace, and reach a consensus with neighbours in its non-identifiable subspace. As a result, the task of estimating unknown parameters can be achieved in a distributed way using cooperative local estimators. Application examples in system identification are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the theoretical results developed in this paper.

Jin Li, Kleanthis Malialis, Stelios G. Vrachimis et al.

Water Distribution Networks (WDNs) are vital infrastructures, and contamination poses serious public health risks. Harmful substances can interact with disinfectants like chlorine, making chlorine monitoring essential for detecting contaminants. However, chlorine sensors often become unreliable and require frequent calibration. This study introduces the Dual-Threshold Anomaly and Drift Detection (AD&DD) method, an unsupervised approach combining a dual-threshold drift detection mechanism with an LSTM-based Variational Autoencoder(LSTM-VAE) for real-time contamination detection. Tested on two realistic WDNs, AD&DD effectively identifies anomalies with sensor offsets as concept drift, and outperforms other methods. A proposed decentralized architecture enables accurate contamination detection and localization by deploying AD&DD on selected nodes.

Kleanthis Malialis, Nefeli Mavri, Stelios G. Vrachimis et al.

Accurate water consumption forecasting is a crucial tool for water utilities and policymakers, as it helps ensure a reliable supply, optimize operations, and support infrastructure planning. Urban Water Distribution Networks (WDNs) are divided into District Metered Areas (DMAs), where water flow is monitored to efficiently manage resources. This work focuses on short-term forecasting of DMA consumption using deep learning and aims to address two key challenging issues. First, forecasting based solely on a DMA's historical data may lack broader context and provide limited insights. Second, DMAs may experience sensor malfunctions providing incorrect data, or some DMAs may not be monitored at all due to computational costs, complicating accurate forecasting. We propose a novel method that first identifies DMAs with correlated consumption patterns and then uses these patterns, along with the DMA's local data, as input to a deep learning model for forecasting. In a real-world study with data from five DMAs, we show that: i) the deep learning model outperforms a classical statistical model; ii) accurate forecasting can be carried out using only correlated DMAs' consumption patterns; and iii) even when a DMA's local data is available, including correlated DMAs' data improves accuracy.

André Artelt, Marios S. Kyriakou, Stelios G. Vrachimis et al.

Drinking water is a vital resource for humanity, and thus, Water Distribution Networks (WDNs) are considered critical infrastructures in modern societies. The operation of WDNs is subject to diverse challenges such as water leakages and contamination, cyber/physical attacks, high energy consumption during pump operation, etc. With model-based methods reaching their limits due to various uncertainty sources, AI methods offer promising solutions to those challenges. In this work, we introduce a Python toolbox for complex scenario modeling \& generation such that AI researchers can easily access challenging problems from the drinking water domain. Besides providing a high-level interface for the easy generation of hydraulic and water quality scenario data, it also provides easy access to popular event detection benchmarks and an environment for developing control algorithms.

Jin Li, Kleanthis Malialis, Marios M. Polycarpou

In our digital universe nowadays, enormous amount of data are produced in a streaming manner in a variety of application areas. These data are often unlabelled. In this case, identifying infrequent events, such as anomalies, poses a great challenge. This problem becomes even more difficult in non-stationary environments, which can cause deterioration of the predictive performance of a model. To address the above challenges, the paper proposes an autoencoder-based incremental learning method with drift detection (strAEm++DD). Our proposed method strAEm++DD leverages on the advantages of both incremental learning and drift detection. We conduct an experimental study using real-world and synthetic datasets with severe or extreme class imbalance, and provide an empirical analysis of strAEm++DD. We further conduct a comparative study, showing that the proposed method significantly outperforms existing baseline and advanced methods.

Farzaneh Tatari, Christos Panayiotou, Marios Polycarpou

This paper deals with the problem of finite-time learning for unknown discrete-time nonlinear systems' dynamics, without the requirement of the persistence of excitation. Two finite-time concurrent learning methods are presented to approximate the uncertainties of the discrete-time nonlinear systems in an online fashion by employing current data along with recorded experienced data satisfying an easy-to-check rank condition on the richness of the recorded data which is less restrictive in comparison with persistence of excitation condition. For the proposed finite-time concurrent learning methods, rigorous proofs guarantee the finite-time convergence of the estimated parameters to their optimal values based on the discrete-time Lyapunov analysis. Compared with the existing work in the literature, simulation results illustrate that the proposed methods can timely and precisely approximate the uncertainties.

Kleanthis Malialis, Christos G. Panayiotou, Marios M. Polycarpou

An enormous and ever-growing volume of data is nowadays becoming available in a sequential fashion in various real-world applications. Learning in nonstationary environments constitutes a major challenge, and this problem becomes orders of magnitude more complex in the presence of class imbalance. We provide new insights into learning from nonstationary and imbalanced data in online learning, a largely unexplored area. We propose the novel Adaptive REBAlancing (AREBA) algorithm that selectively includes in the training set a subset of the majority and minority examples that appeared so far, while at its heart lies an adaptive mechanism to continually maintain the class balance between the selected examples. We compare AREBA with strong baselines and other state-of-the-art algorithms and perform extensive experimental work in scenarios with various class imbalance rates and different concept drift types on both synthetic and real-world data. AREBA significantly outperforms the rest with respect to both learning speed and learning quality. Our code is made publicly available to the scientific community.

Kleanthis Malialis, Christos G. Panayiotou, Marios M. Polycarpou

Online class imbalance learning constitutes a new problem and an emerging research topic that focusses on the challenges of online learning under class imbalance and concept drift. Class imbalance deals with data streams that have very skewed distributions while concept drift deals with changes in the class imbalance status. Little work exists that addresses these challenges and in this paper we introduce queue-based resampling, a novel algorithm that successfully addresses the co-existence of class imbalance and concept drift. The central idea of the proposed resampling algorithm is to selectively include in the training set a subset of the examples that appeared in the past. Results on two popular benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of queue-based resampling over state-of-the-art methods in terms of learning speed and quality.

Mohsen Khalili, Xiaodong Zhang, Marios M. Polycarpou et al.

This paper presents an adaptive fault-tolerant control (FTC) scheme for a class of nonlinear uncertain multi-agent systems. A local FTC scheme is designed for each agent using local measurements and suitable information exchanged between neighboring agents. Each local FTC scheme consists of a fault diagnosis module and a reconfigurable controller module comprised of a baseline controller and two adaptive fault-tolerant controllers activated after fault detection and after fault isolation, respectively. Under certain assumptions, the closed-loop system's stability and leader-follower consensus properties are rigorously established under different modes of the FTC system, including the time-period before possible fault detection, between fault detection and possible isolation, and after fault isolation.