Uncertainty Quantification via Spatial-Temporal Tweedie Model for Zero-inflated and Long-tail Travel Demand PredictionXinke Jiang, Dingyi Zhuang, Xianghui Zhang et al.
Understanding Origin-Destination (O-D) travel demand is crucial for transportation management. However, traditional spatial-temporal deep learning models grapple with addressing the sparse and long-tail characteristics in high-resolution O-D matrices and quantifying prediction uncertainty. This dilemma arises from the numerous zeros and over-dispersed demand patterns within these matrices, which challenge the Gaussian assumption inherent to deterministic deep learning models. To address these challenges, we propose a novel approach: the Spatial-Temporal Tweedie Graph Neural Network (STTD). The STTD introduces the Tweedie distribution as a compelling alternative to the traditional 'zero-inflated' model and leverages spatial and temporal embeddings to parameterize travel demand distributions. Our evaluations using real-world datasets highlight STTD's superiority in providing accurate predictions and precise confidence intervals, particularly in high-resolution scenarios.
Multiple Object Detection and Tracking in Panoramic Videos for Cycling Safety AnalysisJingwei Guo, Yitai Cheng, Meihui Wang et al.
Cyclists face a disproportionate risk of injury, yet conventional crash records are too sparse to identify risk factors at fine spatial and temporal scales. Recently, naturalistic studies have used video data to capture the complex behavioural and infrastructural risk factors. A promising format is panoramic video, which can record 360$^\circ$ views around a rider. However, its use is limited by distortions, large numbers of small objects, and boundary continuity, which cannot be handled using existing computer vision models. This research proposes a novel three-step framework: (1) enhancing object detection accuracy on panoramic imagery by segmenting and projecting the original 360$^\circ$ images into sub-images; (2) modifying multi-object tracking models to incorporate boundary continuity and object category information; and (3) validating through a real-world application of vehicle overtaking detection. The methodology is evaluated using panoramic videos recorded by cyclists on London's roadways under diverse conditions. Experimental results demonstrate improvements over baselines, achieving higher average precision across varying image resolutions. Moreover, the enhanced tracking approach yields a 10.0% decrease in identification switches and a 2.7% improvement in identification precision. The overtaking detection task achieves a high F-score of 0.82, illustrating the practical effectiveness of the proposed method in real-world cycling safety scenarios.