Yoshitaka Saiki

Natsuki Tsutsumi, Kengo Nakai, Yoshitaka Saiki

In our previous paper [N. Tsutsumi, K. Nakai and Y. Saiki, Chaos 32, 091101 (2022)], we proposed a method for constructing a system of differential equations of chaotic behavior from only observable deterministic time series, which we call the radial function-based regression (RfR) method. However, when the targeted variable's behavior is rather complex, the direct application of the RfR method does not function well. In this study, we propose a novel method of modeling such dynamics, including the high-frequency intermittent behavior of a fluid flow, by considering another variable (base variable) showing relatively simple, less intermittent behavior. We construct an autonomous joint model composed of two parts: the first is an autonomous system of a base variable, and the other concerns the targeted variable being affected by a term involving the base variable to demonstrate complex dynamics. The constructed joint model succeeded in not only inferring a short trajectory but also reconstructing chaotic sets and statistical properties obtained from a long trajectory such as the density distributions of the actual dynamics.

Takuya Jinno, Takahito Mitsui, Kengo Nakai et al.

In recent years, the application of machine learning approaches to time-series forecasting of climate dynamical phenomena has become increasingly active. It is known that applying a band-pass filter to a time-series data is a key to obtaining a high-quality data-driven model. Here, to obtain longer-term predictability of machine learning models, we introduce a new type of band-pass filter. It can be applied to realtime operational prediction workflows since it relies solely on past time series. We combine the filter with reservoir computing, which is a machine-learning technique that employs a data-driven dynamical system. As an application, we predict the multi-year dynamics of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation with the prediction horizon of 24 months using only past time series.

Kengo Nakai, Yoshitaka Saiki

We infer both microscopic and macroscopic behaviors of a three-dimensional chaotic fluid flow using reservoir computing. In our procedure of the inference, we assume no prior knowledge of a physical process of a fluid flow except that its behavior is complex but deterministic. We present two ways of inference of the complex behavior; the first called partial-inference requires continued knowledge of partial time-series data during the inference as well as past time-series data, while the second called full-inference requires only past time-series data as training data. For the first case, we are able to infer long-time motion of microscopic fluid variables. For the second case, we show that the reservoir dynamics constructed from only past data of energy functions can infer the future behavior of energy functions and reproduce the energy spectrum. It is also shown that we can infer a time-series data from only one measurement by using the delay coordinates. These implies that the obtained two reservoir systems constructed without the knowledge of microscopic data are equivalent to the dynamical systems describing macroscopic behavior of energy functions.