Anson Ho

Tilman Räuker, Anson Ho, Stephen Casper et al.

The last decade of machine learning has seen drastic increases in scale and capabilities. Deep neural networks (DNNs) are increasingly being deployed in the real world. However, they are difficult to analyze, raising concerns about using them without a rigorous understanding of how they function. Effective tools for interpreting them will be important for building more trustworthy AI by helping to identify problems, fix bugs, and improve basic understanding. In particular, "inner" interpretability techniques, which focus on explaining the internal components of DNNs, are well-suited for developing a mechanistic understanding, guiding manual modifications, and reverse engineering solutions. Much recent work has focused on DNN interpretability, and rapid progress has thus far made a thorough systematization of methods difficult. In this survey, we review over 300 works with a focus on inner interpretability tools. We introduce a taxonomy that classifies methods by what part of the network they help to explain (weights, neurons, subnetworks, or latent representations) and whether they are implemented during (intrinsic) or after (post hoc) training. To our knowledge, we are also the first to survey a number of connections between interpretability research and work in adversarial robustness, continual learning, modularity, network compression, and studying the human visual system. We discuss key challenges and argue that the status quo in interpretability research is largely unproductive. Finally, we highlight the importance of future work that emphasizes diagnostics, debugging, adversaries, and benchmarking in order to make interpretability tools more useful to engineers in practical applications.

Pablo Villalobos, Anson Ho, Jaime Sevilla et al.

We investigate the potential constraints on LLM scaling posed by the availability of public human-generated text data. We forecast the growing demand for training data based on current trends and estimate the total stock of public human text data. Our findings indicate that if current LLM development trends continue, models will be trained on datasets roughly equal in size to the available stock of public human text data between 2026 and 2032, or slightly earlier if models are overtrained. We explore how progress in language modeling can continue when human-generated text datasets cannot be scaled any further. We argue that synthetic data generation, transfer learning from data-rich domains, and data efficiency improvements might support further progress.

Pablo Villalobos, Jaime Sevilla, Tamay Besiroglu et al.

We study trends in model size of notable machine learning systems over time using a curated dataset. From 1950 to 2018, model size in language models increased steadily by seven orders of magnitude. The trend then accelerated, with model size increasing by another five orders of magnitude in just 4 years from 2018 to 2022. Vision models grew at a more constant pace, totaling 7 orders of magnitude of growth between 1950 and 2022. We also identify that, since 2020, there have been many language models below 20B parameters, many models above 70B parameters, but a scarcity of models in the 20-70B parameter range. We refer to that scarcity as the parameter gap. We provide some stylized facts about the parameter gap and propose a few hypotheses to explain it. The explanations we favor are: (a) increasing model size beyond 20B parameters requires adopting different parallelism techniques, which makes mid-sized models less cost-effective, (b) GPT-3 was one order of magnitude larger than previous language models, and researchers afterwards primarily experimented with bigger models to outperform it. While these dynamics likely exist, and we believe they play some role in generating the gap, we don't have high confidence that there are no other, more important dynamics at play.

Elliot Glazer, Ege Erdil, Tamay Besiroglu et al.

We introduce FrontierMath, a benchmark of hundreds of original, exceptionally challenging mathematics problems crafted and vetted by expert mathematicians. The questions cover most major branches of modern mathematics -- from computationally intensive problems in number theory and real analysis to abstract questions in algebraic geometry and category theory. Solving a typical problem requires multiple hours of effort from a researcher in the relevant branch of mathematics, and for the upper end questions, multiple days. FrontierMath uses new, unpublished problems and automated verification to reliably evaluate models while minimizing risk of data contamination. Current state-of-the-art AI models solve under 2% of problems, revealing a vast gap between AI capabilities and the prowess of the mathematical community. As AI systems advance toward expert-level mathematical abilities, FrontierMath offers a rigorous testbed that quantifies their progress.

Yoshua Bengio, Sören Mindermann, Daniel Privitera et al. · eth-zurich, mit

The first International AI Safety Report comprehensively synthesizes the current evidence on the capabilities, risks, and safety of advanced AI systems. The report was mandated by the nations attending the AI Safety Summit in Bletchley, UK. Thirty nations, the UN, the OECD, and the EU each nominated a representative to the report's Expert Advisory Panel. A total of 100 AI experts contributed, representing diverse perspectives and disciplines. Led by the report's Chair, these independent experts collectively had full discretion over the report's content.

Anson Ho, Tamay Besiroglu, Ege Erdil et al. · harvard, stanford

We investigate the rate at which algorithms for pre-training language models have improved since the advent of deep learning. Using a dataset of over 200 language model evaluations on Wikitext and Penn Treebank spanning 2012-2023, we find that the compute required to reach a set performance threshold has halved approximately every 8 months, with a 95% confidence interval of around 5 to 14 months, substantially faster than hardware gains per Moore's Law. We estimate augmented scaling laws, which enable us to quantify algorithmic progress and determine the relative contributions of scaling models versus innovations in training algorithms. Despite the rapid pace of algorithmic progress and the development of new architectures such as the transformer, our analysis reveals that the increase in compute made an even larger contribution to overall performance improvements over this time period. Though limited by noisy benchmark data, our analysis quantifies the rapid progress in language modeling, shedding light on the relative contributions from compute and algorithms.

Anson Ho, Jean-Stanislas Denain, David Atanasov et al.

Most AI benchmarks saturate within years or even months after they are introduced, making it hard to study long-run trends in AI capabilities. To address this challenge, we build a statistical framework that stitches benchmarks together, putting model capabilities and benchmark difficulties on a single numerical scale. This acts as a "Rosetta Stone", allowing us to compare models across a wide range of abilities and time, even if they are not evaluated on the same benchmarks. Moreover, this works without assuming how capabilities evolve across time or with training compute. We demonstrate three applications of this framework. First, we use it to measure the speed of AI progress over time, and to forecast future AI capabilities. Second, we estimate the rate of improvements in algorithmic efficiency, finding estimates that are higher, but broadly consistent with prior work. Finally, we find that our approach can be used to detect rapid accelerations in AI progress.

Jaime Sevilla, Lennart Heim, Anson Ho et al.

Compute, data, and algorithmic advances are the three fundamental factors that guide the progress of modern Machine Learning (ML). In this paper we study trends in the most readily quantified factor - compute. We show that before 2010 training compute grew in line with Moore's law, doubling roughly every 20 months. Since the advent of Deep Learning in the early 2010s, the scaling of training compute has accelerated, doubling approximately every 6 months. In late 2015, a new trend emerged as firms developed large-scale ML models with 10 to 100-fold larger requirements in training compute. Based on these observations we split the history of compute in ML into three eras: the Pre Deep Learning Era, the Deep Learning Era and the Large-Scale Era. Overall, our work highlights the fast-growing compute requirements for training advanced ML systems.