Ying Sun

Pratik Nag, Ying Sun, Brian J Reich

Gaussian processes (GP) and Kriging are widely used in traditional spatio-temporal mod-elling and prediction. These techniques typically presuppose that the data are observed from a stationary GP with parametric covariance structure. However, processes in real-world applications often exhibit non-Gaussianity and nonstationarity. Moreover, likelihood-based inference for GPs is computationally expensive and thus prohibitive for large datasets. In this paper we propose a deep neural network (DNN) based two-stage model for spatio-temporal interpolation and forecasting. Interpolation is performed in the first step, which utilizes a dependent DNN with the embedding layer constructed with spatio-temporal basis functions. For the second stage, we use Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) and convolutional LSTM to forecast future observations at a given location. We adopt the quantile-based loss function in the DNN to provide probabilistic forecasting. Compared to Kriging, the proposed method does not require specifying covariance functions or making stationarity assumption, and is computationally efficient. Therefore, it is suitable for large-scale prediction of complex spatio-temporal processes. We apply our method to monthly $PM_{2.5}$ data at more than $200,000$ space-time locations from January 1999 to December 2022 for fast imputation of missing values and forecasts with uncertainties.

Firas Al-Hindawi, Tejaswi Soori, Han Hu et al.

The detection of critical heat flux (CHF) is crucial in heat boiling applications as failure to do so can cause rapid temperature ramp leading to device failures. Many machine learning models exist to detect CHF, but their performance reduces significantly when tested on data from different domains. To deal with datasets from new domains a model needs to be trained from scratch. Moreover, the dataset needs to be annotated by a domain expert. To address this issue, we propose a new framework to support the generalizability and adaptability of trained CHF detection models in an unsupervised manner. This approach uses an unsupervised Image-to-Image (UI2I) translation model to transform images in the target dataset to look like they were obtained from the same domain the model previously trained on. Unlike other frameworks dealing with domain shift, our framework does not require retraining or fine-tuning of the trained classification model nor does it require synthesized datasets in the training process of either the classification model or the UI2I model. The framework was tested on three boiling datasets from different domains, and we show that the CHF detection model trained on one dataset was able to generalize to the other two previously unseen datasets with high accuracy. Overall, the framework enables CHF detection models to adapt to data generated from different domains without requiring additional annotation effort or retraining of the model.

Pratik Nag, Ying Sun, Brian J Reich

High spatial resolution wind data are essential for a wide range of applications in climate, oceanographic and meteorological studies. Large-scale spatial interpolation or downscaling of bivariate wind fields having velocity in two dimensions is a challenging task because wind data tend to be non-Gaussian with high spatial variability and heterogeneity. In spatial statistics, cokriging is commonly used for predicting bivariate spatial fields. However, the cokriging predictor is not optimal except for Gaussian processes. Additionally, cokriging is computationally prohibitive for large datasets. In this paper, we propose a method, called bivariate DeepKriging, which is a spatially dependent deep neural network (DNN) with an embedding layer constructed by spatial radial basis functions for bivariate spatial data prediction. We then develop a distribution-free uncertainty quantification method based on bootstrap and ensemble DNN. Our proposed approach outperforms the traditional cokriging predictor with commonly used covariance functions, such as the linear model of co-regionalization and flexible bivariate Matérn covariance. We demonstrate the computational efficiency and scalability of the proposed DNN model, with computations that are, on average, 20 times faster than those of conventional techniques. We apply the bivariate DeepKriging method to the wind data over the Middle East region at 506,771 locations. The prediction performance of the proposed method is superior over the cokriging predictors and dramatically reduces computation time.

Pratik Nag, Yiping Hong, Sameh Abdulah et al.

Spatial processes observed in various fields, such as climate and environmental science, often occur on a large scale and demonstrate spatial nonstationarity. Fitting a Gaussian process with a nonstationary Matérn covariance is challenging. Previous studies in the literature have tackled this challenge by employing spatial partitioning techniques to estimate the parameters that vary spatially in the covariance function. The selection of partitions is an important consideration, but it is often subjective and lacks a data-driven approach. To address this issue, in this study, we utilize the power of Convolutional Neural Networks (ConvNets) to derive subregions from the nonstationary data. We employ a selection mechanism to identify subregions that exhibit similar behavior to stationary fields. In order to distinguish between stationary and nonstationary random fields, we conducted training on ConvNet using various simulated data. These simulations are generated from Gaussian processes with Matérn covariance models under a wide range of parameter settings, ensuring adequate representation of both stationary and nonstationary spatial data. We assess the performance of the proposed method with synthetic and real datasets at a large scale. The results revealed enhanced accuracy in parameter estimations when relying on ConvNet-based partition compared to traditional user-defined approaches.

Qilong Pan, Sameh Abdulah, Mustafa Abduljabbar et al.

Emulating computationally intensive scientific simulations is crucial for enabling uncertainty quantification, optimization, and informed decision-making at scale. Gaussian Processes (GPs) offer a flexible and data-efficient foundation for statistical emulation, but their poor scalability limits applicability to large datasets. We introduce the Scaled Block Vecchia (SBV) algorithm for distributed GPU-based systems. SBV integrates the Scaled Vecchia approach for anisotropic input scaling with the Block Vecchia (BV) method to reduce computational and memory complexity while leveraging GPU acceleration techniques for efficient linear algebra operations. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first distributed implementation of any Vecchia-based GP variant. Our implementation employs MPI for inter-node parallelism and the MAGMA library for GPU-accelerated batched matrix computations. We demonstrate the scalability and efficiency of the proposed algorithm through experiments on synthetic and real-world workloads, including a 50M point simulation from a respiratory disease model. SBV achieves near-linear scalability on up to 512 A100 and GH200 GPUs, handles 2.56B points, and reduces energy use relative to exact GP solvers, establishing SBV as a scalable and energy-efficient framework for emulating large-scale scientific models on GPU-based distributed systems.

Qianli Xu, Nicolas Gauthier, Wenyu Liang et al.

When deploying a robot to a new task, one often has to train it to detect novel objects, which is time-consuming and labor-intensive. We present TAILOR -- a method and system for object registration with active and incremental learning. When instructed by a human teacher to register an object, TAILOR is able to automatically select viewpoints to capture informative images by actively exploring viewpoints, and employs a fast incremental learning algorithm to learn new objects without potential forgetting of previously learned objects. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method with a KUKA robot to learn novel objects used in a real-world gearbox assembly task through natural interactions.

Joshua Fan, Di Chen, Jiaming Wen et al.

Monitoring vegetation productivity at extremely fine resolutions is valuable for real-world agricultural applications, such as detecting crop stress and providing early warning of food insecurity. Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF) provides a promising way to directly measure plant productivity from space. However, satellite SIF observations are only available at a coarse spatial resolution, making it impossible to monitor how individual crop types or farms are doing. This poses a challenging coarsely-supervised regression (or downscaling) task; at training time, we only have SIF labels at a coarse resolution (3km), but we want to predict SIF at much finer spatial resolutions (e.g. 30m, a 100x increase). We also have additional fine-resolution input features, but the relationship between these features and SIF is unknown. To address this, we propose Coarsely-Supervised Smooth U-Net (CS-SUNet), a novel method for this coarse supervision setting. CS-SUNet combines the expressive power of deep convolutional networks with novel regularization methods based on prior knowledge (such as a smoothness loss) that are crucial for preventing overfitting. Experiments show that CS-SUNet resolves fine-grained variations in SIF more accurately than existing methods.

Zelin He, Ying Sun, Jingyuan Liu et al.

The main challenge that sets transfer learning apart from traditional supervised learning is the distribution shift, reflected as the shift between the source and target models and that between the marginal covariate distributions. In this work, we tackle model shifts in the presence of covariate shifts in the high-dimensional regression setting. Specifically, we propose a two-step method with a novel fused-regularizer that effectively leverages samples from source tasks to improve the learning performance on a target task with limited samples. Nonasymptotic bound is provided for the estimation error of the target model, showing the robustness of the proposed method to covariate shifts. We further establish conditions under which the estimator is minimax-optimal. Additionally, we extend the method to a distributed setting, allowing for a pretraining-finetuning strategy, requiring just one round of communication while retaining the estimation rate of the centralized version. Numerical tests validate our theory, highlighting the method's robustness to covariate shifts.

Zuzheng Wang, Fouzi Harrou, Ying Sun et al.

Detecting anomalies in crowded video scenes is critical for public safety, enabling timely identification of potential threats. This study explores video anomaly detection within a Functional Data Analysis framework, focusing on the application of the Magnitude-Shape (MS) Plot. Autoencoders are used to learn and reconstruct normal behavioral patterns from anomaly-free training data, resulting in low reconstruction errors for normal frames and higher errors for frames with potential anomalies. The reconstruction error matrix for each frame is treated as multivariate functional data, with the MS-Plot applied to analyze both magnitude and shape deviations, enhancing the accuracy of anomaly detection. Using its capacity to evaluate the magnitude and shape of deviations, the MS-Plot offers a statistically principled and interpretable framework for anomaly detection. The proposed methodology is evaluated on two widely used benchmark datasets, UCSD Ped2 and CUHK Avenue, demonstrating promising performance. It performs better than traditional univariate functional detectors (e.g., FBPlot, TVDMSS, Extremal Depth, and Outliergram) and several state-of-the-art methods. These results highlight the potential of the MS-Plot-based framework for effective anomaly detection in crowded video scenes.

Jianwei Shi, Sameh Abdulah, Ying Sun et al.

Advancements in information technology have enabled the creation of massive spatial datasets, driving the need for scalable and efficient computational methodologies. While offering viable solutions, centralized frameworks are limited by vulnerabilities such as single-point failures and communication bottlenecks. This paper presents a decentralized framework tailored for parameter inference in spatial low-rank models to address these challenges. A key obstacle arises from the spatial dependence among observations, which prevents the log-likelihood from being expressed as a summation-a critical requirement for decentralized optimization approaches. To overcome this challenge, we propose a novel objective function leveraging the evidence lower bound, which facilitates the use of decentralized optimization techniques. Our approach employs a block descent method integrated with multi-consensus and dynamic consensus averaging for effective parameter optimization. We prove the convexity of the new objective function in the vicinity of the true parameters, ensuring the convergence of the proposed method. Additionally, we present the first theoretical results establishing the consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimator within the context of spatial low-rank models. Extensive simulations and real-world data experiments corroborate these theoretical findings, showcasing the robustness and scalability of the framework.

Weiyu Guo, Ziyue Qiao, Ying Sun et al.

Gesture recognition based on surface electromyography (sEMG) has been gaining importance in many 3D Interactive Scenes. However, sEMG is easily influenced by various forms of noise in real-world environments, leading to challenges in providing long-term stable interactions through sEMG. Existing methods often struggle to enhance model noise resilience through various predefined data augmentation techniques. In this work, we revisit the problem from a short term enhancement perspective to improve precision and robustness against various common noisy scenarios with learnable denoise using sEMG intrinsic pattern information and sliding-window attention. We propose a Short Term Enhancement Module(STEM) which can be easily integrated with various models. STEM offers several benefits: 1) Learnable denoise, enabling noise reduction without manual data augmentation; 2) Scalability, adaptable to various models; and 3) Cost-effectiveness, achieving short-term enhancement through minimal weight-sharing in an efficient attention mechanism. In particular, we incorporate STEM into a transformer, creating the Short Term Enhanced Transformer (STET). Compared with best-competing approaches, the impact of noise on STET is reduced by more than 20%. We also report promising results on both classification and regression datasets and demonstrate that STEM generalizes across different gesture recognition tasks.

Jianwei Shi, Sameh Abdulah, Ying Sun et al.

Spatial data are central to applications such as environmental monitoring and urban planning, but are often distributed across devices where privacy and communication constraints limit direct sharing. Federated modeling offers a practical solution that preserves data privacy while enabling global modeling across distributed data sources. For instance, environmental sensor networks are privacy- and bandwidth-constrained, motivating federated spatial modeling that shares only privacy-preserving summaries to produce timely, high-resolution pollution maps without centralizing raw data. However, existing federated modeling approaches either ignore spatial dependence or rely on synchronous updates that suffer from stragglers in heterogeneous environments. This work proposes an asynchronous federated modeling framework for spatial data based on low-rank Gaussian process approximations. The method employs block-wise optimization and introduces strategies for gradient correction, adaptive aggregation, and stabilized updates. We establish linear convergence with explicit dependence on staleness, a result of standalone theoretical significance. Moreover, numerical experiments demonstrate that the asynchronous algorithm achieves synchronous performance under balanced resource allocation and significantly outperforms it in heterogeneous settings, showcasing superior robustness and scalability.

Ángel López-Oriona, Ying Sun, Rosa M. Crujeiras

Time series clustering is an essential machine learning task with applications in many disciplines. While the majority of the methods focus on time series taking values on the real line, very few works consider time series defined on the unit circle, although the latter objects frequently arise in many applications. In this paper, the problem of clustering circular time series is addressed. To this aim, a distance between circular series is introduced and used to construct a clustering procedure. The metric relies on a new measure of serial dependence considering circular arcs, thus taking advantage of the directional character inherent to the series range. Since the dynamics of the series may vary over the time, we adopt a fuzzy approach, which enables the procedure to locate each series into several clusters with different membership degrees. The resulting clustering algorithm is able to group series generated from similar stochastic processes, reaching accurate results with series coming from a broad variety of models. An extensive simulation study shows that the proposed method outperforms several alternative techniques, besides being computationally efficient. Two interesting applications involving time series of wind direction in Saudi Arabia highlight the potential of the proposed approach.

Akira Horiguchi, Thomas J. Santner, Ying Sun et al.

Techniques to reduce the energy burden of an industrial ecosystem often require solving a multiobjective optimization problem. However, collecting experimental data can often be either expensive or time-consuming. In such cases, statistical methods can be helpful. This article proposes Pareto Front (PF) and Pareto Set (PS) estimation methods using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART), which is a non-parametric model whose assumptions are typically less restrictive than popular alternatives, such as Gaussian Processes (GPs). These less restrictive assumptions allow BART to handle scenarios (e.g. high-dimensional input spaces, nonsmooth responses, large datasets) that GPs find difficult. The performance of our BART-based method is compared to a GP-based method using analytic test functions, demonstrating convincing advantages. Finally, our BART-based methodology is applied to a motivating engineering problem. Supplementary materials, which include a theorem proof, algorithms, and R code, for this article are available online.

Wanfang Chen, Yuxiao Li, Brian J Reich et al.

In spatial statistics, a common objective is to predict values of a spatial process at unobserved locations by exploiting spatial dependence. Kriging provides the best linear unbiased predictor using covariance functions and is often associated with Gaussian processes. However, when considering non-linear prediction for non-Gaussian and categorical data, the Kriging prediction is no longer optimal, and the associated variance is often overly optimistic. Although deep neural networks (DNNs) are widely used for general classification and prediction, they have not been studied thoroughly for data with spatial dependence. In this work, we propose a novel DNN structure for spatial prediction, where the spatial dependence is captured by adding an embedding layer of spatial coordinates with basis functions. We show in theory and simulation studies that the proposed DeepKriging method has a direct link to Kriging in the Gaussian case, and it has multiple advantages over Kriging for non-Gaussian and non-stationary data, i.e., it provides non-linear predictions and thus has smaller approximation errors, it does not require operations on covariance matrices and thus is scalable for large datasets, and with sufficiently many hidden neurons, it provides the optimal prediction in terms of model capacity. We further explore the possibility of quantifying prediction uncertainties based on density prediction without assuming any data distribution. Finally, we apply the method to predicting PM2.5 concentrations across the continental United States.