Hyungjun Kim

Minjong Cheon, Eunhan Goo, Su-Hyeon Shin et al.

Recently, AI-based weather forecast models have achieved impressive advances. These models have reached accuracy levels comparable to traditional NWP systems, marking a significant milestone in data-driven weather prediction. However, they mostly leverage Transformer-based architectures, which often leads to high training complexity and resource demands due to the massive parameter sizes. In this study, we introduce a modernized CNN-based model for global weather forecasting that delivers competitive accuracy while significantly reducing computational requirements. To present a systematic modernization roadmap, we highlight key architectural enhancements across multiple design scales from an earlier CNN-based approach. KAI-a incorporates a scale-invariant architecture and InceptionNeXt-based blocks within a geophysically-aware design, tailored to the structure of Earth system data. Trained on the ERA5 daily dataset with 67 atmospheric variables, the model contains about 7 million parameters and completes training in just 12 hours on a single NVIDIA L40s GPU. Our evaluation shows that KAI-a matches the performance of state-of-the-art models in medium-range weather forecasting, while offering a significantly lightweight design. Furthermore, case studies on the 2018 European heatwave and the East Asian summer monsoon demonstrate KAI-a's robust skill in capturing extreme events, reinforcing its practical utility.

Eunho Koo, Hyungjun Kim

In regression analysis under artificial neural networks, the prediction performance depends on determining the appropriate weights between layers. As randomly initialized weights are updated during back-propagation using the gradient descent procedure under a given loss function, the loss function structure can affect the performance significantly. In this study, we considered the distribution error, i.e., the inconsistency of two distributions (those of the predicted values and label), as the prediction error, and proposed weighted empirical stretching (WES) as a novel loss function to increase the overlap area of the two distributions. The function depends on the distribution of a given label, thus, it is applicable to any distribution shape. Moreover, it contains a scaling hyperparameter such that the appropriate parameter value maximizes the common section of the two distributions. To test the function capability, we generated ideal distributed curves (unimodal, skewed unimodal, bimodal, and skewed bimodal) as the labels, and used the Fourier-extracted input data from the curves under a feedforward neural network. In general, WES outperformed loss functions in wide use, and the performance was robust to the various noise levels. The improved results in RMSE for the extreme domain (i.e., both tail regions of the distribution) are expected to be utilized for prediction of abnormal events in non-linear complex systems such as natural disaster and financial crisis.