Emanuele Dolera

Claudia Contardi, Emanuele Dolera, Stefano Favaro

The unseen-species problem assumes $n\geq1$ samples from a population of individuals belonging to different species, possibly infinite, and calls for estimating the number $K_{n,m}$ of hitherto unseen species that would be observed if $m\geq1$ new samples were collected from the same population. This is a long-standing problem in statistics, which has gained renewed relevance in biological and physical sciences, particularly in settings with large values of $n$ and $m$. In this paper, we adopt a Bayesian nonparametric approach to the unseen-species problem under the Pitman-Yor prior, and propose a novel methodology to derive large $m$ asymptotic credible intervals for $K_{n,m}$, for any $n\geq1$. By leveraging a Gaussian central limit theorem for the posterior distribution of $K_{n,m}$, our method improves upon competitors in two key aspects: firstly, it enables the full parameterization of the Pitman-Yor prior, including the Dirichlet prior; secondly, it avoids the need of Monte Carlo sampling, enhancing computational efficiency. We validate the proposed method on synthetic and real data, demonstrating that it improves the empirical performance of competitors by significantly narrowing the gap between asymptotic and exact credible intervals for any $m\geq1$.

Emanuele Dolera, Stefano Favaro

Privacy-protecting data analysis investigates statistical methods under privacy constraints. This is a rising challenge in modern statistics, as the achievement of confidentiality guarantees, which typically occurs through suitable perturbations of the data, may determine a loss in the statistical utility of the data. In this paper, we consider privacy-protecting tests for goodness-of-fit in frequency tables, this being arguably the most common form of releasing data, and present a rigorous analysis of the large sample behaviour of a private likelihood-ratio (LR) test. Under the framework of $(\varepsilon,δ)$-differential privacy for perturbed data, our main contribution is the power analysis of the private LR test, which characterizes the trade-off between confidentiality, measured via the differential privacy parameters $(\varepsilon,δ)$, and statistical utility, measured via the power of the test. This is obtained through a Bahadur-Rao large deviation expansion for the power of the private LR test, bringing out a critical quantity, as a function of the sample size, the dimension of the table and $(\varepsilon,δ)$, that determines a loss in the power of the test. Such a result is then applied to characterize the impact of the sample size and the dimension of the table, in connection with the parameters $(\varepsilon,δ)$, on the loss of the power of the private LR test. In particular, we determine the (sample) cost of $(\varepsilon,δ)$-differential privacy in the private LR test, namely the additional sample size that is required to recover the power of the Multinomial LR test in the absence of perturbation. Our power analysis rely on a non-standard large deviation analysis for the LR, as well as the development of a novel (sharp) large deviation principle for sum of i.i.d. random vectors, which is of independent interest.

Emanuele Dolera, Stefano Favaro, Stefano Peluchetti

The count-min sketch (CMS) is a time and memory efficient randomized data structure that provides estimates of tokens' frequencies in a data stream of tokens, i.e. point queries, based on random hashed data. A learning-augmented version of the CMS, referred to as CMS-DP, has been proposed by Cai, Mitzenmacher and Adams (\textit{NeurIPS} 2018), and it relies on Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) modeling of the data stream of tokens via a Dirichlet process (DP) prior, with estimates of a point query being obtained as suitable mean functionals of the posterior distribution of the point query, given the hashed data. While the CMS-DP has proved to improve on some aspects of CMS, it has the major drawback of arising from a ``constructive" proof that builds upon arguments tailored to the DP prior, namely arguments that are not usable for other nonparametric priors. In this paper, we present a ``Bayesian" proof of the CMS-DP that has the main advantage of building upon arguments that are usable, in principle, within a broad class of nonparametric priors arising from normalized completely random measures. This result leads to develop a novel learning-augmented CMS under power-law data streams, referred to as CMS-PYP, which relies on BNP modeling of the data stream of tokens via a Pitman-Yor process (PYP) prior. Under this more general framework, we apply the arguments of the ``Bayesian" proof of the CMS-DP, suitably adapted to the PYP prior, in order to compute the posterior distribution of a point query, given the hashed data. Applications to synthetic data and real textual data show that the CMS-PYP outperforms the CMS and the CMS-DP in estimating low-frequency tokens, which are known to be of critical interest in textual data, and it is competitive with respect to a variation of the CMS designed for low-frequency tokens. An extension of our BNP approach to more general queries is also discussed.

Emanuele Dolera, Stefano Favaro, Stefano Peluchetti

The count-min sketch (CMS) is a randomized data structure that provides estimates of tokens' frequencies in a large data stream using a compressed representation of the data by random hashing. In this paper, we rely on a recent Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) view on the CMS to develop a novel learning-augmented CMS under power-law data streams. We assume that tokens in the stream are drawn from an unknown discrete distribution, which is endowed with a normalized inverse Gaussian process (NIGP) prior. Then, using distributional properties of the NIGP, we compute the posterior distribution of a token's frequency in the stream, given the hashed data, and in turn corresponding BNP estimates. Applications to synthetic and real data show that our approach achieves a remarkable performance in the estimation of low-frequency tokens. This is known to be a desirable feature in the context of natural language processing, where it is indeed common in the context of the power-law behaviour of the data.