Jonathan Mummolo

Max Gonzalez Saez-Diez, Jihoon Chung, Adam D. Wolsky et al.

We introduce EgoPolice, a carefully curated dataset of real, egocentric police-civilian interactions, sourced from publicly available body-worn camera videos. We select police-civilian action labels that are critical for police behavioral research and annotate them at a second-by-second granularity. The videos feature rapid and irregular camera motion, dense human interactions, and rare high-stakes events, making the dataset a challenging benchmark for motion-robust and context-aware egocentric perception. We provide two different tasks, classification and multiple-choice question-answering, and benchmark both open-source and closed-source models. We find that even the best video models like Gemini 2.5 Pro still struggle to accurately predict high-risk actions such as "Weapon Out". Beyond serving as a benchmark, EgoPolice provides a foundation for developing models capable of identifying events of interest in large-scale body-worn camera video repositories, enabling more efficient downstream human review.

Guilherme Duarte, Noam Finkelstein, Dean Knox et al.

When causal quantities cannot be point identified, researchers often pursue partial identification to quantify the range of possible values. However, the peculiarities of applied research conditions can make this analytically intractable. We present a general and automated approach to causal inference in discrete settings. We show causal questions with discrete data reduce to polynomial programming problems, and we present an algorithm to automatically bound causal effects using efficient dual relaxation and spatial branch-and-bound techniques. The user declares an estimand, states assumptions, and provides data (however incomplete or mismeasured). The algorithm then searches over admissible data-generating processes and outputs the most precise possible range consistent with available information -- i.e., sharp bounds -- including a point-identified solution if one exists. Because this search can be computationally intensive, our procedure reports and continually refines non-sharp ranges that are guaranteed to contain the truth at all times, even when the algorithm is not run to completion. Moreover, it offers an additional guarantee we refer to as $ε$-sharpness, characterizing the worst-case looseness of the incomplete bounds. Analytically validated simulations show the algorithm accommodates classic obstacles, including confounding, selection, measurement error, noncompliance, and nonresponse.