Ola Hall

Ola Hall, Mattias Ohlsson, Thortseinn Rögnvaldsson

Recent advances in artificial intelligence and machine learning have created a step change in how to measure human development indicators, in particular asset based poverty. The combination of satellite imagery and machine learning has the capability to estimate poverty at a level similar to what is achieved with workhorse methods such as face-to-face interviews and household surveys. An increasingly important issue beyond static estimations is whether this technology can contribute to scientific discovery and consequently new knowledge in the poverty and welfare domain. A foundation for achieving scientific insights is domain knowledge, which in turn translates into explainability and scientific consistency. We review the literature focusing on three core elements relevant in this context: transparency, interpretability, and explainability and investigate how they relates to the poverty, machine learning and satellite imagery nexus. Our review of the field shows that the status of the three core elements of explainable machine learning (transparency, interpretability and domain knowledge) is varied and does not completely fulfill the requirements set up for scientific insights and discoveries. We argue that explainability is essential to support wider dissemination and acceptance of this research, and explainability means more than just interpretability.

Hamid Sarmadi, Ola Hall, Thorsteinn Rögnvaldsson et al.

This paper investigates the novel application of Large Language Models (LLMs) with vision capabilities to analyze satellite imagery for village-level poverty prediction. Although LLMs were originally designed for natural language understanding, their adaptability to multimodal tasks, including geospatial analysis, has opened new frontiers in data-driven research. By leveraging advancements in vision-enabled LLMs, we assess their ability to provide interpretable, scalable, and reliable insights into human poverty from satellite images. Using a pairwise comparison approach, we demonstrate that ChatGPT can rank satellite images based on poverty levels with accuracy comparable to domain experts. These findings highlight both the promise and the limitations of LLMs in socioeconomic research, providing a foundation for their integration into poverty assessment workflows. This study contributes to the ongoing exploration of unconventional data sources for welfare analysis and opens pathways for cost-effective, large-scale poverty monitoring.

Philipp Stark, Alexandros Sopasakis, Ola Hall et al.

We transform large-scale Swedish register data into textual life trajectories to address two long-standing challenges in data analysis: high cardinality of categorical variables and inconsistencies in coding schemes over time. Leveraging this uniquely comprehensive population register, we convert register data from 6.9 million individuals (2001-2013) into semantically rich texts and predict individuals' residential mobility in later years (2013-2017). These life trajectories combine demographic information with annual changes in residence, work, education, income, and family circumstances, allowing us to assess how effectively such sequences support longitudinal prediction. We compare multiple NLP architectures (including LSTM, DistilBERT, BERT, and Qwen) and find that sequential and transformer-based models capture temporal and semantic structure more effectively than baseline models. The results show that textualized register data preserves meaningful information about individual pathways and supports complex, scalable modeling. Because few countries maintain longitudinal microdata with comparable coverage and precision, this dataset enables analyses and methodological tests that would be difficult or impossible elsewhere, offering a rigorous testbed for developing and evaluating new sequence-modeling approaches. Overall, our findings demonstrate that combining semantically rich register data with modern language models can substantially advance longitudinal analysis in social sciences.