Ziyu Wang

Caglar Gulcehre, Ziyu Wang, Alexander Novikov et al.

Offline methods for reinforcement learning have a potential to help bridge the gap between reinforcement learning research and real-world applications. They make it possible to learn policies from offline datasets, thus overcoming concerns associated with online data collection in the real-world, including cost, safety, or ethical concerns. In this paper, we propose a benchmark called RL Unplugged to evaluate and compare offline RL methods. RL Unplugged includes data from a diverse range of domains including games (e.g., Atari benchmark) and simulated motor control problems (e.g., DM Control Suite). The datasets include domains that are partially or fully observable, use continuous or discrete actions, and have stochastic vs. deterministic dynamics. We propose detailed evaluation protocols for each domain in RL Unplugged and provide an extensive analysis of supervised learning and offline RL methods using these protocols. We will release data for all our tasks and open-source all algorithms presented in this paper. We hope that our suite of benchmarks will increase the reproducibility of experiments and make it possible to study challenging tasks with a limited computational budget, thus making RL research both more systematic and more accessible across the community. Moving forward, we view RL Unplugged as a living benchmark suite that will evolve and grow with datasets contributed by the research community and ourselves. Our project page is available on https://git.io/JJUhd.

Ziyu Wang, Chris Holmes

Bayesian modelling allows for the quantification of predictive uncertainty which is crucial in safety-critical applications. Yet for many machine learning (ML) algorithms, it is difficult to construct or implement their Bayesian counterpart. In this work we present a promising approach to address this challenge, based on the hypothesis that commonly used ML algorithms are efficient across a wide variety of tasks and may thus be near Bayes-optimal w.r.t. an unknown task distribution. We prove that it is possible to recover the Bayesian posterior defined by the task distribution, which is unknown but optimal in this setting, by building a martingale posterior using the algorithm. We further propose a practical uncertainty quantification method that apply to general ML algorithms. Experiments based on a variety of non-NN and NN algorithms demonstrate the efficacy of our method.

Ziyu Wang, Chris Holmes

Applications of large language models often involve the generation of free-form responses, in which case uncertainty quantification becomes challenging. This is due to the need to identify task-specific uncertainties (e.g., about the semantics) which appears difficult to define in general cases. This work addresses these challenges from a perspective of Bayesian decision theory, starting from the assumption that our utility is characterized by a similarity measure that compares a generated response with a hypothetical true response. We discuss how this assumption enables principled quantification of the model's subjective uncertainty and its calibration. We further derive a measure for epistemic uncertainty, based on a missing data perspective and its characterization as an excess risk. The proposed methods can be applied to black-box language models. We illustrate the methods on question answering and machine translation tasks. Our experiments provide a principled evaluation of task-specific calibration, and demonstrate that epistemic uncertainty offers a promising deferral strategy for efficient data acquisition in in-context learning.

Fabian Falck, Ziyu Wang, Chris Holmes

In-context learning (ICL) has emerged as a particularly remarkable characteristic of Large Language Models (LLM): given a pretrained LLM and an observed dataset, LLMs can make predictions for new data points from the same distribution without fine-tuning. Numerous works have postulated ICL as approximately Bayesian inference, rendering this a natural hypothesis. In this work, we analyse this hypothesis from a new angle through the martingale property, a fundamental requirement of a Bayesian learning system for exchangeable data. We show that the martingale property is a necessary condition for unambiguous predictions in such scenarios, and enables a principled, decomposed notion of uncertainty vital in trustworthy, safety-critical systems. We derive actionable checks with corresponding theory and test statistics which must hold if the martingale property is satisfied. We also examine if uncertainty in LLMs decreases as expected in Bayesian learning when more data is observed. In three experiments, we provide evidence for violations of the martingale property, and deviations from a Bayesian scaling behaviour of uncertainty, falsifying the hypothesis that ICL is Bayesian.