Andrew Bolt

Joel Janek Dabrowski, Daniel Edward Pagendam, James Hilton et al.

We apply the Physics Informed Neural Network (PINN) to the problem of wildfire fire-front modelling. We use the PINN to solve the level-set equation, which is a partial differential equation that models a fire-front through the zero-level-set of a level-set function. The result is a PINN that simulates a fire-front as it propagates through the spatio-temporal domain. We show that popular optimisation cost functions used in the literature can result in PINNs that fail to maintain temporal continuity in modelled fire-fronts when there are extreme changes in exogenous forcing variables such as wind direction. We thus propose novel additions to the optimisation cost function that improves temporal continuity under these extreme changes. Furthermore, we develop an approach to perform data assimilation within the PINN such that the PINN predictions are drawn towards observations of the fire-front. Finally, we incorporate our novel approaches into a Bayesian PINN (B-PINN) to provide uncertainty quantification in the fire-front predictions. This is significant as the standard solver, the level-set method, does not naturally offer the capability for data assimilation and uncertainty quantification. Our results show that, with our novel approaches, the B-PINN can produce accurate predictions with high quality uncertainty quantification on real-world data.

Andrew Bolt, Carolyn Huston, Petra Kuhnert et al.

Computational simulations of wildfire spread typically employ empirical rate-of-spread calculations under various conditions (such as terrain, fuel type, weather). Small perturbations in conditions can often lead to significant changes in fire spread (such as speed and direction), necessitating a computationally expensive large set of simulations to quantify uncertainty. Model emulation seeks alternative representations of physical models using machine learning, aiming to provide more efficient and/or simplified surrogate models. We propose a dedicated spatio-temporal neural network based framework for model emulation, able to capture the complex behaviour of fire spread models. The proposed approach can approximate forecasts at fine spatial and temporal resolutions that are often challenging for neural network based approaches. Furthermore, the proposed approach is robust even with small training sets, due to novel data augmentation methods. Empirical experiments show good agreement between simulated and emulated firefronts, with an average Jaccard score of 0.76.

Andrew Bolt, Joel Janek Dabrowski, Carolyn Huston et al.

Forecasting bushfire spread is an important element in fire prevention and response efforts. Empirical observations of bushfire spread can be used to estimate fire response under certain conditions. These observations form rate-of-spread models, which can be used to generate simulations. We use machine learning to drive the emulation approach for bushfires and show that emulation has the capacity to closely reproduce simulated fire-front data. We present a preliminary emulator approach with the capacity for fast emulation of complex simulations. Large numbers of predictions can then be generated as part of ensemble estimation techniques, which provide more robust and reliable forecasts of stochastic systems.

SIMA Team, Maria Abi Raad, Arun Ahuja et al. · deepmind, stanford

Building embodied AI systems that can follow arbitrary language instructions in any 3D environment is a key challenge for creating general AI. Accomplishing this goal requires learning to ground language in perception and embodied actions, in order to accomplish complex tasks. The Scalable, Instructable, Multiworld Agent (SIMA) project tackles this by training agents to follow free-form instructions across a diverse range of virtual 3D environments, including curated research environments as well as open-ended, commercial video games. Our goal is to develop an instructable agent that can accomplish anything a human can do in any simulated 3D environment. Our approach focuses on language-driven generality while imposing minimal assumptions. Our agents interact with environments in real-time using a generic, human-like interface: the inputs are image observations and language instructions and the outputs are keyboard-and-mouse actions. This general approach is challenging, but it allows agents to ground language across many visually complex and semantically rich environments while also allowing us to readily run agents in new environments. In this paper we describe our motivation and goal, the initial progress we have made, and promising preliminary results on several diverse research environments and a variety of commercial video games.

Patrick M. Pilarski, Andrew Butcher, Michael Johanson et al.

Humans make decisions and act alongside other humans to pursue both short-term and long-term goals. As a result of ongoing progress in areas such as computing science and automation, humans now also interact with non-human agents of varying complexity as part of their day-to-day activities; substantial work is being done to integrate increasingly intelligent machine agents into human work and play. With increases in the cognitive, sensory, and motor capacity of these agents, intelligent machinery for human assistance can now reasonably be considered to engage in joint action with humans---i.e., two or more agents adapting their behaviour and their understanding of each other so as to progress in shared objectives or goals. The mechanisms, conditions, and opportunities for skillful joint action in human-machine partnerships is of great interest to multiple communities. Despite this, human-machine joint action is as yet under-explored, especially in cases where a human and an intelligent machine interact in a persistent way during the course of real-time, daily-life experience. In this work, we contribute a virtual reality environment wherein a human and an agent can adapt their predictions, their actions, and their communication so as to pursue a simple foraging task. In a case study with a single participant, we provide an example of human-agent coordination and decision-making involving prediction learning on the part of the human and the machine agent, and control learning on the part of the machine agent wherein audio communication signals are used to cue its human partner in service of acquiring shared reward. These comparisons suggest the utility of studying human-machine coordination in a virtual reality environment, and identify further research that will expand our understanding of persistent human-machine joint action.