Lujun Zhang

Yihan Wang, Lujun Zhang, Annan Yu et al.

The classical way of studying the rainfall-runoff processes in the water cycle relies on conceptual or physically-based hydrologic models. Deep learning (DL) has recently emerged as an alternative and blossomed in hydrology community for rainfall-runoff simulations. However, the decades-old Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network remains the benchmark for this task, outperforming newer architectures like Transformers. In this work, we propose a State Space Model (SSM), specifically the Frequency Tuned Diagonal State Space Sequence (S4D-FT) model, for rainfall-runoff simulations. The proposed S4D-FT is benchmarked against the established LSTM and a physically-based Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model across 531 watersheds in the contiguous United States (CONUS). Results show that S4D-FT is able to outperform the LSTM model across diverse regions. Our pioneering introduction of the S4D-FT for rainfall-runoff simulations challenges the dominance of LSTM in the hydrology community and expands the arsenal of DL tools available for hydrological modeling.

Yihan Wang, Annan Yu, Lujun Zhang et al.

Recent advances have introduced diffusion models for probabilistic streamflow forecasting, demonstrating strong early flood-warning skill. However, current implementations rely on recurrent Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) backbones and single-step training objectives, which limit their ability to capture long-range dependencies and produce coherent forecast trajectories across lead times. To address these limitations, we developed HydroDiffusion, a diffusion-based probabilistic forecasting framework with a decoder-only state space model backbone. The proposed framework jointly denoises full multi-day trajectories in a single pass, ensuring temporal coherence and mitigating error accumulation common in autoregressive prediction. HydroDiffusion is evaluated across 531 watersheds in the contiguous United States (CONUS) in the CAMELS dataset. We benchmark HydroDiffusion against two diffusion baselines with LSTM backbones, as well as the recently proposed Diffusion-based Runoff Model (DRUM). Results show that HydroDiffusion achieves strong nowcast accuracy when driven by observed meteorological forcings, and maintains consistent performance across the full simulation horizon. Moreover, HydroDiffusion delivers stronger deterministic and probabilistic forecast skill than DRUM in operational forecasting. These results establish HydroDiffusion as a robust generative modeling framework for medium-range streamflow forecasting, providing both a new modeling benchmark and a foundation for future research on probabilistic hydrologic prediction at continental scales.

Yihan Wang, Lujun Zhang

Obtaining reliable precipitation estimation with high resolutions in time and space is of great importance to hydrological studies. However, accurately estimating precipitation is a challenging task over high mountainous complex terrain. The three widely used precipitation measurement approaches, namely rainfall gauge, precipitation radars, and satellite-based precipitation sensors, have their own pros and cons in producing reliable precipitation products over complex areas. One way to decrease the detection error probability and improve data reliability is precipitation data merging. With the rapid advancements in computational capabilities and the escalating volume and diversity of earth observational data, Deep Learning (DL) models have gained considerable attention in geoscience. In this study, a deep learning technique, namely Long Short-term Memory (LSTM), was employed to merge a radar-based and a satellite-based Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) precipitation product Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) precipitation product at hourly scale. The merged results are compared with the widely used reanalysis precipitation product, Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS), and assessed against gauge observational data from the California Data Exchange Center (CDEC). The findings indicated that the LSTM-based merged precipitation notably underestimated gauge observations and, at times, failed to provide meaningful estimates, showing predominantly near-zero values. Relying solely on individual Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPEs) without additional meteorological input proved insufficient for generating reliable merged QPE. However, the merged results effectively captured the temporal trends of the observations, outperforming MRMS in this aspect. This suggested that incorporating bias correction techniques could potentially enhance the accuracy of the merged product.